Cheltenham Festival 2012: Day 4

DAY 4                  March 16, 2012

Triumph Hurdle      2m 1f 4yos

I try to avoid having a bet in the Triumph, although in the past two years my selections in Soldatino and Zarkandar have obliged at generous odds.

Shortlist:

Grumeti                                               4

Pearl Swan                                         4

Sadler’s Risk                                      4

Baby Mix                                             4

Darroun                                               4

Ranjaan                                               4

Selections:

1) Pearl Swan             2) Baby Mix     3) Grumeti       4) Darroun

VOB County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 2m 1f

Starluck will be hard to beat at a big price racing off 150.

Shortlist:

Starluck                                               7

Moon Dice                                          7

Ted Spread                                        5

Raya Star                                            6

Selections:

1) Starluck e.w.           2) Raya Star

AB Novice Hurdle 3m

Shortlist:

Boston Bob                 ?                      7

Mount Benbulben                                7

Rocky Creek                                       6

Selections:

1) Boston Bob       2) Mount Benbulben      3) Rocky Creek

Gold Cup Grade 1 3m 2½f

Favourites have won six of the past 10 renewals and the biggest priced of the other four was 15/2. 7, 8 and 9yos do the best by far in this. Kauto Star and Tidal Bay may be getting a bit long in the tooth for this, but represent a good standard by the old guard. Long Run looks to have a compelling chance and Midnight Chase may be good enough to make the frame this time at the expense of Kauto Star. The likes of Burton Port, Quel Esprit, What A Friend, Weird Al and Captain Chris could be interesting propositions for a place.

Shortlist:

Long Run                                                        7

Kauto Star                                                     12

Grands Crus                                                   7

Midnight Chase                                            10

Burton Port                                                      8

Tidal Bay                                                        11

Weird Al                                                           9

Synchronised                                                   9

Quel Esprit                                                       8

What A Friend                                                 9

Selections:

1) Long Run 2) Midnight Chase 3) Burton Port 4) Kauto Star  5) What A Friend/Quel Esprit

Previous winners                                               

2011 Long Run                        6                              7/2           fav
2010 Imperial Commander      9                              7/1
2009 Kauto Star                       9                              7/4           fav
2008 Denman                          8                              9/4
2007 Kauto Star                       7                              5/4           fav
2006 War Of Attrition               7                              15/2
2005 Kicking King                    7                               4/1          fav
2004 Best Mate                        9                              8/11         fav
2003 Best Mate                        8                              13/8         fav
2002 Best Mate                        7                               7/1

Foxhunter Steeple Chase

The amateur jockey’s Gold Cup. Age no barrier to this with all ages from 7 to 13yos winning in the past 21 renewals. Earthmover won the race in 1998 and again in 2004 (at the respective ages of 7 and 13)

Shortlist:

On The Fringe                                     7

Chapoturgeon                                     8

Salsify                                                  7

My Flora                                              8

Barbers Shop                                   10

Selection:

My Flora

c Steve Miller 2012

Cheltenham Festival 2012: Day 3

DAY 3                  March 15, 2012

Jewson Novice Chase Listed 2m 4f

Shortlist:

Sir Des Champs         ?                      6

Peddler’s Cross                                  7

Al Ferof                                                7

Silviniaco Conti                                   6

Champion Court                                 7

Solix                                                    6

Bog Warrior                                        8

For Non Stop                                       7

Cristal Bonus                                      6

Selections:

1) Sir Des Champs 2) Peddler’s Cross 3) For Non Stop 4) Solix

Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle Listed 3m

Unlike several high profile handicaps do not be put off those carrying bigger weights.

Shortlist:

Our Father                                          6                      11-3

Ryanair Chase Grade 2  2m 5f

Previous Cheltenham winners win this. Older horses do fine. Concentrate on first handful in betting.

Shortlist:

Noble Prince                                       8

Somersby                                           8

Captain Chris              ?                      8

Rubi Light                                            7

Riverside Theatre                               8

Medermit                                             8

Poquelin                                              9

Kauto Stone                                        6

Alberta’s Run                                      11

Great Endeavour                                 8

Quel Esprit                                          8

Kalahari King                                       11

Selections:

1) Nobel Prince 2) Riverside Theatre 3) Somersby 4) Rubi Light 5) Medermit/Captain Chris

Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+)   3m

Steer clear of 5yos (no 5yo has won this) and those aged in double figures. 6, 7, 8 and 9yos are all capable of winning. No Irish-trained winner for 15 years. The Long Walk and Cleeve Hurdles are key guides. Oppose those who race prominently. Big Bucks again looks to hold a fine chance, with Oscar Whisky the one expected to put it up to him this year. Oscar Whisky in the market w/o the favourite looks the bet.

Shortlist:

Big Bucks                                            9

Oscar Whisky                                     7

Thousand Stars                                  8

Dynaste                                               6

Voler La Vedette                                  8

Carlito Brigante                                   6

So Young                                            6

Mourad                                                7

Zaidpour                                              6

Selection: 1) Big Bucks          2) Oscar Whisky         3) Mourad        4) So Young

Previous winners

2011 Big Buck's                      8                              10/11       fav
2010 Big Buck's                      7                              5/6           fav
2009 Big Buck's                      6                              6/1
2008 Inglis Drever                   9                              11/8         fav
2007 Inglis Drever                   8                              5/1
2006 My Way De Solzen         6                              8/1
2005 Inglis Drever                   6                              5/1
2004 Iris’s Gift                         7                              9/2
2003 Baracouda                     8                              9/4           joint-fav
2002 Baracouda                     7                              13/8         fav

Byrne Group Plate Handicap Steeple Chase Grade 3 (5yo+) 2m 5f

No Selection

FWKM Challenge Cup 3m 1½f

No Selection

Cheltenham Festival 2012: Day 2

DAY 2                  March 14, 2012

NH Steeplechase Challenge Cup  4m

Older horses do well in this, ignore 5yos and 6yos.

No Selection

Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m 5f

A good race for those prominent in the betting. 5yos or 6yos win this, with only one 4yo and one 7yo from the past 20 winners.

Shortlist:

Simonsig                                             6

Boston Bob                                         7

Batonnier                                             6

Monksland                                           5

Selections:

1) Simonsig     2) Boston Bob             3) Batonnier e.w.         4) Monksland

Royal & SunAlliance Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 3m ½f

7yos and 8yos are best for this (winning 16 of the past 20). Prominently ridden horses. Traditional breeding over French-breds, oppose ex-Flat types.

Shortlist:

Grands Crus               ?                       7

Bob’s Worth                                         7

Sir Des Champs         ?                      6

Join Together                                       7

Bog Warrior                                         8

First Lieutenant                                   7

Silviniaco Conti                                   6

Walkon                                                 7

Invictus                                                 6

Selections:

1) Grands Crus 2) Sir Des Champs 3) First Lieutenant e.w 4) Invictus/Join Together

Previous winners

2011 Bostons Angel                               8                              16/1

2010 Weapons Amnesty                         7                              10/1
2009 Cooldine                                       7                              9/4          fav
2008 Albertas Run                                  7                              4/1          fav
2007 Denman                                         7                              6/5          fav
2006 Star De Mohaison                          5                              14/1
2005 Trabolgan                                      7                              5/1
2004 Rule Supreme                                8                              25/1
2003 One Knight                                    7                              15/2
2002 Hussard Collonges                         7                              33/1

Champion Chase Grade 1 (5yo+)  2m

Usually this is dominated by those that are well fancied, as they tend to have exposed form (nine of the past 12 winners started at odds no bigger than 5/1, although the past two winners have landed odds of 10/1). Concentrate on those rated 160+. The majority of past winners won or were placed at the Festival before. 10 of the past 12 Arkle winners finished in the first two in this race the following year. Those that have run well in the race before tend to continue to run well. Age does not appear to be a particularly important factor in winning this with a spread of ages: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and an 11yo winning in the past 20 renewals. At current odds Sizing Europe may be worth taking on with Finian’s Rainbow.

Shortlist:

Sizing Europe                                     10

Finian’s Rainbow                                9

Somersby                                            8

Big Zeb                                               11

Selections:

1)  Finian’s Rainbow               2) Sizing Europe         3) Somersby    4) Big Zeb                                            

                                                                                                       

Previous winners

2011 Sizing Europe                 9                              10/1
2010 Big Zeb                           9                              10/1
2009 Master Minded                6                               4/11        fav
2008 Master Minded                5                              3/1
2007 Voy Por Ustedes              6                              5/1
2006 Newmill                           8                             16/1
2005 Moscow Flyer                 11                              6/4          fav
2004 Azertyuiop                      7                              15/8

2003 Moscow Flyer                  9                               7/4          fav
2002 Flagship Uberalles          8                               7/4          fav

Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (4yo+)  2m 5f

Shortlist:

Getmeoutofhere                                  8                                 

Carlito Brigante                                   6                     

Batonnier                     ?                      6

Our Father                                           6

Toner D’Oudaries                               5

Selections:

1) Getmeoutofhere      2) Our Father

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (4yo) 2m 110y

Shortlist:

Vendor                                                 4

Hinterland                                            4

Ranjaan                                               4

One Lucky Lady                                  4

Hisaabaat                                            4

Kazlian                                                 4

Selections:

1) Vendor     2) Kazlian           3) Ranjaan

FWKM Challenge Cup Handicap Chase 3m ½f

Champion Bumper      2m ½f

5yos have advantage, although exceptional 4yos – Cue Card, beat two 5yos in this – can win. Irish-trained horses specialise in this, particularly Mullins (six winners, five of which were once-raced 5yos).

Shortlist:

Moscow Mannon                                 6

Royal Guardsman                               5

c Steve Miller 2012

Cheltenham Festival 2012: Day 1

2012 Cheltenham Festival – my Notes:

Working schedule over the four days. Subject to updating.

Summary:

Worthy favourites: Sprinter Sacre (Arkle), Grands Crus (RSA), Long Run (Gold Cup), Quevega (Mares’ Hurdle).

Good value: Oscar Whisky (World Hurdle), Finian’s Rainbow (Champion Chase), Starluck (County Hurdle)

Place bets:  Oscar Whisky (World Hurdle), Finian’s Rainbow (Champion Chase), Menorah (Arkle)

Each-way:  Starluck 33/1 (County Hurdle)

Remember that each-way doubles and trebles on alternatives to your main selection is a good strategy for clawing back on losing single win bets.

DAY 1             March 13, 2012

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f

5yos or 6yos do best in this (winning 17 out of the past 20 renewals). The last favourite to win was Brave Inca in 2004, although three favourites have won in the past 10 renewals. The Irish tend to do well. Lightly exposed runners do well, although most had also won last time out before this.

Shortlist:

Steps To Freedom                  6                     

Darlan                                       5

Galileo’s Choice                      6

Cinders And Ashes                 5

Midnight Game                        5

Tetlami                                      6

Selections:

1) Darlan 2) Cinders And Ashes 3) Galileo’s Choice 4) Steps To Freedom  5) Tetlami

Previous winners

2011 Al Ferof                          6                              10/1
2010 Menorah                        5                              12/1
2009 Go Native                      6                              12/1
2008 Captain Cee Bee           7                              17/2
2007 Ebaziyan                       6                              40/1
2006 Noland                          5                               6/1
2005 Arcalis                           5                               20/1
2004 Brave Inca                     6                               7/2          fav
2003 Back In Front                 6                               3/1          fav

2002 Like-A-Butterfly              8                               7/4          fav

Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m

6yos and 7yos do well (winning 13 of the past 20 renewals). 5yos no longer have the 5lb allowance they used to receive so are unlikely to do as well as in the past. Only two winners aged over 7 in the past 20 renewals. Big priced horses tend not to do well, 8/1 or less is a good guide (6/1 in three of the past four years), but only three actual favourites (Remittance Man, Klairon Davis and Azertyuiop) have won in the past 20 renewals. Highly rated ex-hurdlers and French-breds do well.

Sprinter Sacre is a tremendously exciting novice with all of the attributes to succeed here. His Newbury form already makes him the winner. One not to oppose.

Shortlist:

Sprinter Sacre                                     6

Al Ferof                                                7

Menorah                                               7

Cue Card                                             6

Bog Warrior                                         8

Sir Des Champs                                 6

Blackstairmountain                             7

Selections:

1) Sprinter Sacre       2) Menorah     3) Cue Card    4) Al Ferof

Previous winners

2011 Captain Chris               7                              6/1
2010 Sizing Europe              8                              6/1
2009 Forpadydeplasterer      7                              8/1
2008 Tidal Bay                     7                              6/1
2007 My Way de Solzen       7                              7/2
2006 Voy Por Ustedes           5                              15/2
2005 Contraband                  7                              7/1
2004 Well Chief                    5                              9/1
2003 Azertyuiop                    6                              5/4           fav
2002 Moscow Flyer                8                             11/2

Festival Handicap Chase Grade 3 (5yo+) 3m ½f

Shortlist:

Hold On Julio                                      9

Quantitativeeasing                             7

Time For Rupert                                 8

Seabass                                              9

Knockara Beau                                   9

The Giant Bolster                                7

Selections:

1)  Quantitativeeasing 2) Hold On Julio 3) Time For Rupert 4) Knockara Beau e.w.

Champion Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+)  2m ½f

Serious contenders should have won, or nearly won, their last race prior to the Champion and be the right side of eight, rather than older (two of the past 20 winners were 9). Those that have won or been placed at the Festival before do well. Eight favourites have won in the past 21 renewals. At the odds it must be worth taking on Hurricane Fly. I’d nominate Binocular and Zarkandar to give the favourite most to do, while Oscar Whisky would be a danger to all if lining up here rather than the World Hurdle.

Shortlist:

Hurricane Fly                                      8

Binocular                                             8

Zarkandar                                            5

Starluck                       ?                      7

Oscar Whisky             ?                      7

Oscars Well                                        7

Rock On Ruby                                    7

Selections:

1) Binocular     2) Zarkandar   3) Hurricane Fly          4) Rock On Ruby                  

Previous winners

2011 Hurricane Fly                 7                              11/4         fav
2010 Binocular                       6                              9/1
2009 Punjabi                          6                              22/1
2008 Katchit                           5                              10/1
2007 Sublimity                       7                              16/1
2006 Brave Inca                      8                              7/4          fav
2005 Hardy Eustace                8                              7/2          joint-fav
2004 Hardy Eustace                7                              33/1
2003 Rooster Booster              9                              9/2
2002 Hors La Loi III                 7                              10/1

Cross Country Handicap Chase (5yo+) 3m 7f

Shortlist:

Scotsirish                                            11

Selection:        1) Scotsirish

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle 2m 4f

Quevega has won the past three runnings of this race as favourite, of which there have been just four renewals. Whiteoak won the inaugural running at 20/1. There doesn’t appear to be much in the way of opposition to the favourite.

Shortlist:

Quevega                                             8

Selection: 1) Quevega     

c Steve Miller 2012