Noble Mission takes Newbury maiden in style

Noble Mission can probably be forgiven for not winning his Yarmouth maiden and looked a lovely winner at Newbury today. He is surely doomed to forever be in his brother’s (Frankel) shadow... not a bad shadow to be in having said that.

At least connections get a second chance at the Derby! I'd be surprised if they don't give it a go this time. 

Son of Montjeu cut for Guineas and Derby

Camelot has been cut for both the 2,000 Guineas and Derby with Ladbrokes following various efforts by potential rivals at Newmarket this week, without setting foot on a racecourse.

Connections of Camelot (primarily Coolmore) will be desperate to win a Classic/Group 1 over a mile with a son of Montjeu (following the stallion’s death) this season.

Most Improved out of Craven, Guineas "open to question"

Most Improved is out of the Craven (lame) and could miss the Guineas itself. Meehan (on his website): "Obviously at this stage his participation is open to question".

Reportedly Meehan's vets were in attendance this morning. The Manton team are understandably hoping that the colt has suffered only a minor setback and will be fit for the Classic on May 5.

Craven meeting, Newmarket

The classic trials kick into gear at Newmarket tomorrow.

In Wednesday’s Listed European Free Handicap I’ve got my eye on Zumbi, an as yet unexposed colt for trainer Sir Michael Stoute. He won on his debut in a maiden at Ascot before being placed in the 13-runner Acomb Stakes at York. The Dubawi colt, out of a Cadeaux Genereux mare, has the most scope for improvement of the field and off his current mark can take the beating here.

In the Craven Stakes on Thursday there is a chance to see if there is substance to the hype of maiden winner Much Improved. Brian Meehan’s Dewhurst third has been backed into second favourite for the QIPCO 2,000 Guineas on the back of eye-catching recent homework. Kieren Fallon takes the ride.

Richard Hannon is set to oppose with Group 2 winner Trumpet Major and Group 3 winner Crius, as well as Newmarket maiden winner Campanology.

Grand National 2012

Grand National 2012

Those carrying around 11st have recently done well in the race, but usually they struggle. However, the weights do not seem as compressed this time, which will make it relatively more difficult for those carrying above 11st and will favour those further down the handicap. I’m ignoring the bottom five (who are out of the handicap proper and consequently set to carry more than their actual handicap mark) and believe that the chances of the top 10 in the handicap are longer than available odds, so I’m ignoring those too. As much as I admire the top weight Synchronised, he has to concede 23lb to the likes of Giles Cross, which is surely too big an ask (although he did give 18lb and a beating to that one in last season’s Welsh National). I’ve discarded the majority of those remaining for a variety of reasons, leaving me with a shortlist of 12. I believe the winner will come from this list.

In race card order:

Chicago Grey

Seabass

Shakalakaboomboom

West End Rocker

On His own

Cappa Bleu

Organisedconfusion

Treacle

Sunnyhillboy

Killyglen

Becauseicouldntsee

Giles Cross

I’ve cut these in half again and am left with:

Shakalakaboomboom

On His Own

Cappa Bleu

Treacle

Sunnyhillboy

Giles Cross

As always, concentrate on a small group of about three or four. Giles Cross looks to have a lot going for him and is well positioned in the weights off 10st 1lb. Odds of 20/1 are available about Shakalakaboomboom at the time of writing, which seems like value. I also expect Cappa Bleu to put in a big run. Gold Cup winner Synchronised is a formidable stayer with a touch of class, but at single-digit odds I would have to oppose him at the weights.

Prediction:

(I’ve include Synchronised as fourth choice, but as the likely favourite he’s bad value at single-digit odds and I won’t be backing him on that basis). The others are all worth considering at available odds.

1)    Giles Cross

2)    Shakalakaboomboom

3)    Cappa Bleu

4)    Synchronised
5)  Treacle