Accentuate the negative – Fame to outclass rivals in repeat Ascot test
THE SONGWRITING partnership of Johnny Mercer/Harold
Arlen once told us to “accentuate the
positive, eliminate the negative,” but while the general application of
this may be considered excellent advice, when it comes searching for a winner of
the Ascot Gold Cup, using the Dosage system, we need to adopt opposite tactics
and look for one with a negative (rather than positive) centre of distribution
(CD).
The dream combination
of a horse with the right sort of profile for such extreme distance that is
also Group 1 calibre is relatively rare. Consequently it is common for horses
that do make the grade to win the race more than once.
The table includes 12 of the possible 13 for this
year’s renewal (Gulf Of Naples is excluded, see below). As usual it is organised
with those showing the greatest stamina potential at the top, ranked in order
of Dosage index (DI). Note that the top five also have negative CDs, indicating
enhanced stamina aptitude.
2012 Ascot Gold Cup contenders
Horse sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Ibicenco Shirocco/Rainbow
Quest 3-0-13-10-0 = 26 0.57 -0.15
Colour Vision Rainbow
Quest/Monsun 8-0-20-14-4 = 46 0.64
-0.13
Fame
And Glory Montjeu/Shirley
Heights 3-1-14-6-4 =
28 0.65 -0.25
Opinion
Poll Halling/Shirley
Heights 5-1-13-4-5 =
28 0.81 -0.11
Saddler’s
Rock Sadler’s
Wells/Groom Dancer 7-1-22-8-4 = 42 0.83 -0.02
Askar
Tau Montjeu/Acatenango 3-0-9-4-0 = 16 0.88 0.13
Overturn Barathea/Kris 8-1-9-5-3 = 26 1.08 0.23
Memphis Tennessee Hurricane
Run/Cozzene 2-2-9-2-1 = 16 1.13 0.13
Bridge Of Gold Giant’s Causeway/Doc’s Leader 2-1-24-0-1
= 28 1.15 0.11
Caucus Cape
Cross/Sadler’s Wells 4-7-11-4-0 = 26 1.74 0.42
Lacateno Green
Tune/Acatenango 6-0-6-2-0 = 14 1.80 0.71
Nehaam Nayef/Roi
Danzig 5-3-8-2-0 = 18 2.00 0.61
Key to Profile: Left
to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate,
Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of
Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to
-2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage
profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds
to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative
CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.
The right stuff
Last year’s Gold Cup winner Fame And Glory is bred on the same Montjeu/Shirley Heights cross as
Prix Royal-Oak winner Montare and with a negative CD of -0.25 and a DI of below
1 he is perfectly placed in terms of stamina aptitude. Only Enzeli, Celeric and
Double Trigger had more extreme CDs of the Gold Cup winners in recent years. As
we confidently predicted, he won last season’s Gold Cup, but did so by running
10lb short of his best form. A reproduction or improvement on that would see
him land the race for a second time at the age of six and maintain his sequence
of Group 1 victories in each season he has raced.
Ormonde Stakes
winner Memphis
Tennessee looks like a back-up for Ballydoyle to Fame And Glory
and his Dosage reading has him better suited to around a mile-and-a-half than
distances above two miles. The Hardwicke Stakes would probably be a more
appropriate target for the son of Hurricane Run.
Godolphin pair
The Mahmood Al Zarooni-trained Gold Cup runner-up and
multiple Group 2 winner Opinion Poll,
shares his damsire Shirley Heights with Fame And Glory and like Fame And Glory
has a negative CD, indicating pronounced stamina attributes. The Halling entire
also finished runner-up to Fame And Glory in the British Champions Long
Distance Cup in October. Between these Ascot appearances he won the Goodwood
Cup and Lonsdale Cup and was runner-up to Saddler’s Rock in the Doncaster Cup.
Also a convincing winner of the Henry II Stakes on his latest appearance he
goes into the race on a wave of credible form.
Godolphin has a second and apparently just as good string
to its bow in the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Colour
Vision. The four-year-old Rainbow Quest gelding showed improved form when
beating the useful Red Cadeaux in the Sagaro Stakes on his reappearance this
term. Both Colour Vision’s sire and damsire (Rainbow Quest and Monsun) are Classic/Solid
chefs-de-race (chiefs of breed) and
consequently the gelding has a particularly high concentration of 18 points in
the stamina wing of his profile. He has already won at 18 furlongs and the step
up to 20 furlongs will advantage him over and above the majority of those doing
the same here.
The John Oxx trained four-year-old Saddler’s Rock improved for stepping up
to 18 furlongs at Doncaster last term and is one of five in the race with a
negative CD. The Sadler’s Wells colt is one of the least exposed of those
lining up and he relishes a test of stamina. He perhaps rates the main danger
to the favourite in a field of solid Gold Cup types.
The Montjeu gelding Askar Tau has been unable to make an impression in his three
outings since winning the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last season, including when
fifth in this last year. The Dosage marks him out as suited to a stamina test.
John Gosden could saddle two. The Nayef gelding Nehaam probably needs faster going than
he is likely to get and is held by the main players here anyway. Chepstow
maiden winner Caucus doesn’t look up
to standard and both he and Nehaam appear in the bottom three in our table and
are passed over for those with more suitable stamina profiles.
Ibicenco was runner-up to Opinion Poll in the Henry II Stakes
for Luca Cumani. As with Colour Vision, the stallion Monsun (the most recently
assigned chef-de-race, see: www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/monsun.htm)
appears close up in the pedigree as a Classic/Solid stamina influence, helping
this pair to fill two of the top slots in our table.
Donald McCain’s talented hurdler Overturn is also a decent Flat performer, finishing runner-up in
this season’s Chester Cup, a race he won the year before. He has eight points
in the stamina wing of his profile but his Dosage reading has him coming up a
little short of the trip.
The Mark Johnston-trained Gulf Of Naples was placed in the same race at Chester. The Dosage is
of little help, with just six points in his profile, which is inadequate for a
meaningful reading and he is excluded from our table. Nevertheless, one of
these six points appears in his Professional (extreme stamina) category. He has
won good handicaps at two miles and is proven on soft going.
Two-mile Listed race winner in Germany Lacateno hasn’t raced beyond 16
furlongs and doesn’t look Group 1 class.
Negative centre of distribution
If (in crude terms) a Dosage index of 1.0 and a centre of distribution
of zero is the blueprint for a Derby contender, for a potential Ascot Gold Cup
winner we are looking for a DI of less than 1 and ideally a negative CD. Recent
winners of the race conforming to this ideal are: Fame And Glory (DI 0.65, CD
-0.25), Papineau (0.88, -0.04), Enzeli (0.54, -0.45), Celeric (0.00, -1.44),
Double Trigger (0.21, -1.40) and Arcadian Heights (0.90, -0.05) – while Yeats
(0.89, +0.08), Kayf Tara (0.90, +0.08) and Classic Cliché (0.84, 0.00) qualify
in terms of DI and are very close to qualifying in respect of CD.
This is all the more striking when we consider that
negative CD horses are far less common than those with positive CDs, which
explains why horses are able to win the Gold Cup in years when there is no
particular good example of this type of horse. We are blessed with five such
examples in this year’s renewal, so the winner should truly be suited to an
extreme stamina test.
Dosage of previous winners
Year horse DI CD
2011 Fame And Glory 0.65
-0.25
2010 Rite Of Passage 1.16 0.13
2006-09 Yeats 0.89 0.08
2005 Westerner 1.53 0.25
2004 Papineau 0.88 -0.04
2003 Mr Dinos 1.59 0.32
2001-02 Royal Rebel 2.30 0.61
2000 Kayf Tara 0.90 0.08
1999 Enzeli 0.54 -0.45
1998 Kayf Tara 0.90 0.08
1997 Celeric 0.00 -1.44
Summary
To return to the corrupted song lyric in the headline,
there are five in this year’s race with negative CDs and a DI of below 1: Ibicenco (DI 0.57, CD -0.15), Colour Vision (0.64, -0.13), Fame And Glory (0.65,
-0.25), Opinion Poll (0.81, -0.11) and Saddler’s Rock (0.83, -0.02).
Of these Fame
And Glory is tried and tested at Group 1 level and a previous winner of
this race. The other negatives (in
terms of CD): Saddler’s Rock, Colour
Vision, Opinion Poll and Ibicenco are nominated to fight out the
places.
Verdict
1)
Fame And Glory
2) Saddler’s Rock
3) Colour Vision
4) Opinion Poll
More on the Dosage
system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com
and in the book Dosage:
Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.
c
Steve Miller 2012
