THE DOSAGE system comes into its own when analysing Group races that
require a test of stamina. It also gives us an edge when there is scant form at
the distance to go on and in situations where those taking part are still
largely unknown quantities. As we have seen in the past, the St Leger presents
an ideal opportunity to give the system an airing.
Winning criteria
The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 18 winners of the race is 1.08,
with the ‘right types’ having a DI of about 1 or lower (the lower the DI the
more stamina aptitude). Of these winners, the overwhelming majority satisfy
this requirement – they comprise: Masked Marvel (DI
0.68), Mastery (1.00), Conduit (0.76), Sixties Icon (1.00), Scorpion (1.00), Brian Boru (1.05),
Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi
(0.92), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73).
Although Rule Of Law defied these guidelines in 2004 with a DI of 2.11
and Arctic Cosmos had a higher than average DI of 1.77 when successful in 2010, the
winner typically has a DI of 1 or lower together with a low or negative centre
of distribution (CD).
The table shows the 11 remaining
in this season’s final classic at the latest confirmation stage. As usual it is
arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least
at the bottom, ranked in order of DI.
2012 St Leger contenders
Horse Sire/dam
sire Profile DI CD
Imperial Monarch Galileo/Slip Anchor 3-0-10-9-4 = 26 0.44 -0.42
Chamonix Galileo/Darshaan 3-0-10-5-2 = 20 0.67 -0.15
Michelangelo Galileo/Darshaan 3-0-12-5-2
= 22 0.69 -0.14
Ursa Major Galileo/Shirley
Heights 5-1-14-6-4
= 30 0.76 -0.10
Camelot Montjeu/Kingmambo 6-1-17-8-0 = 32 0.94 0.16
Thomas
Chippendale Dansili/Sadler’s Wells 3-2-12-4-1 = 22 1.00 0.09
Encke Kingmambo/Sinndar 9-3-21-10-1
= 44 1.05 0.20
Guarantee Authorized/Cadeaux
Genereux 3-1-9-3-0 = 16 1.13 0.25
Thought Worthy Dynaformer/Diesis 6-2-23-1-2 = 34 1.34 0.26
Dartford Giant’s
Causeway/Kris S 6-2-31-1-0
= 40 1.42 0.33
Main Sequence Aldebaran/Pivotal 8-3-11-1-1 = 24 2.20 0.67
Key
to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant,
Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of
distribution.
The
Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range
from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the
Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic,
-1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to
zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.
Versatile
The anticipation ahead of this year’s race, which
carries a record purse of £550,000, is intense with Camelot bidding to become the first
colt since Nijinsky to secure horseracing’s elusive Holy Grail. The son of
Montjeu has already won three classics this season and his credentials to
become the first English Triple Crown winner since 1970 are persuasive. His DI
of just below 1 suggests he comes into his own at distances at or beyond 12
furlongs and the fact that he won the 2,000 Guineas in fine style, almost
counter to his natural stamina attributes, coming from off the pace and using
his turn of foot to outperform his rivals, leaves us in no doubt of his ability
to quicken. His chances at this longer trip are not compromised by his Guineas
success but rather enhanced. As we said in our Derby preview, Camelot is a
broad spectrum horse showing a good spread of points in his profile and the
type that can show off his versatility by winning over a range of distances.
Aidan O’Brien has expressed his reservations about “pushing the boat out” in terms of distance. He need not worry, the
Dosage suggests that this test will not prove beyond him and he will again take
a world of beating.
It is ironic that the one we identified
before the Derby as a St Leger prospect is Camelot’s own stablemate Imperial Monarch. The colt has subsequently
been successful at 12 furlongs in the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp and appears
at the head of our table for stamina aptitude (a position occupied by Masked
Marvel last season), being a Galileo/Slip Anchor cross. He is liable to show pronounced
stamina attributes and looks a prime St Leger type. He is relatively unexposed
and without the presence of his illustrious stablemate would have been an
irresistible bet. But if the point of running Camelot in this is to secure the
coveted Triple Crown, Ballydoyle will hardly be busting a gut to get him beat
within its own ranks. Imperial Monarch’s role looks to be a supporting one for
Camelot.
O’Brien also has the unexposed Chamonix, a 12-length maiden winner at 14 furlongs,
engaged at the time of writing. The colt has
Darshaan as his damsire and is very much the type you would expect to see
contest this race.
If successful in his assault
on Town Moor O’Brien will become will become the first
trainer to win all five English classics in a season.
Clarehaven challenge
It seems logical that the most
potent threat to the crown being snatched from the heir apparent will come from
outside Ballydoyle rather than from within. John Gosden, who has trained three
of the past five winners of this race, including the last two, still holds a
strong albeit depleted hand after the defections of Irish Oaks winner Great
Heavens and decisive
Newmarket scorer Shantaram.
Even without these Thought Worthy
and Michelangelo pose a credible dual threat. The George
Strawbridge-owned Great Voltigeur
victor and Derby fourth Thought Worthy
is a brother to 2007 St Leger winner Lucarno (who was also fourth in the Derby),
by Dynaformer out of the Diesis mare Vignette. Although
clearly the right type to do well here he was comprehensively beaten by Camelot
at Epsom and is unlikely to improve enough at this trip to worry the favourite.
There are others above him in our table with more convincing claims.
Michelangelo, one
of four sons of Galileo and two Galileo/Darshaan crosses still in this year’s
race, is one such contender from the Gosden yard. A Listed winner at 11
furlongs he looks likely to improve again for a step up in trip, although he
also looks vulnerable to colts that are able to quicken in the style of
Camelot.
Gosden’s Dartford has a single point in the stamina wing of his Dosage
profile and looks set for pacemaker duties.
Thomas Chippendale, trained by Sir Henry Cecil, is primed to take his chance but
is another that is not expected to improve enough at the trip to bother the
favourite.
Godolphin has won five St Legers and is
represented by Encke from Mahmood
Al Zarooni’s yard. The Kingmambo colt had to settle for third in the Great
Voltigeur behind Thought Worthy and Main Sequence. He derives good stamina from
his dam side and has some chance of reversing form with these at this longer
trip.
Derby and Great Voltigeur
Stakes runner up Main Sequence is
ready to take his chance for trainer David Lanigan. However, the Aldebaran
colt appears at the foot of our table and others here appear more suited to
this stamina test. The Prix Niel is also under consideration, which could be
the better option.
The
William Haggas-trained Guarantee
only made his racecourse debut in June but has since made up for lost time with
three straight wins culminating in the Melrose Stakes. The colt has already won
at 14 furlongs and Haggas has given son of Authorized the green light to take
on Camelot and co after impressing in recent work.
Ursa
Major, winner of four of his six appearances, took the Group 3
Irish St Leger trial over 14 furlongs at the Curragh in good style for trainer
Thomas Carmody. The St Leger trip will prove no problem for the son of Galileo
out of a Shirley Heights mare, with 10 points in the stamina wing of his Dosage
profile.
Speed/stamina balance
The average DI for the past 18
winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for the race below 1.
Dosage of previous St Leger winners
Year Horse DI CD
2011 Masked
Marvel 0.68 -0.13
2010 Arctic
Cosmos 1.77 +0.50
2009 Mastery 1.00 0.00
2008 Conduit 0.76 -0.09
2007 Lucarno 1.34 +0.26
2006 Sixties Icon 1.00 +0.23
2005 Scorpion 1.00 +0.19
2004 Rule Of Law 2.11 +0.17
2003 Brian Boru 1.05 +0.18
2002 Bollin Eric 1.00 +0.14
2001 Milan 0.77 -0.05
2000 Millenary 0.83 +0.02
1999 Mutafaweq 1.07 +0.14
1998 Nedawi 0.92 +0.09
1997 Silver Patriarch 1.00 +0.03
1996 Shantou 1.67 +0.38
1995 Classic Cliché 0.83 0.00
1994 Moonax 0.73 -0.04
____
Average Dosage index = 1.08
Shortlist
With regard to stamina suitability the following look best placed: Imperial
Monarch (DI 0.44), Chamonix (0.67), Michelangelo
(0.69), Ursa Major (0.76) and Camelot (0.94).
Conclusion
Of these CAMELOT
must take the beating on all known form. Imperial
Monarch and Chamonix score
highly in terms of stamina aptitude, but if we assume that Camelot’s
stablemates are there to support his Triple Crown bid rather than muddy the
waters it is sensible to see the main threat coming from outside Ballydoyle. Michelangelo and Ursa Major could be best placed in terms of stamina aptitude to
take advantage of any chinks in Camelot’s armour. Of the remainder Thought Worthy and Encke are decent and have proven resolute at 12 furlongs and Guarantee is fast improving and has
already won at the trip.
Verdict:
1) Camelot
2)
Michelangelo
3)
Imperial Monarch
4)
Ursa Major
5)
Guarantee
More on the Dosage
system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and
Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.
