NICKY HENDERSON looks set to saddle a previous winner and a runner-up of the King George VI Chase in Long Run and Riverside Theatre, as well as his Champion Chase winner Finian’s Rainbow, at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Long Run ran to an RPR of 181 when beating his stablemate Riverside Theatre in the King George the time before last. He ran to the same mark when beating Denman in the Gold Cup. He then reproduced the same mark when runner up to Kauto Star in this last year and hit the same mark again at Newbury in February (that’s four 181s). His last two races have been in the low 170s, which is still as good as anything he’ll face this year. In other words, his opponents need to improve to beat Long Run’s worst performance of his past seven.
Long Run is not showing the signs of terminal decline that some would have us believe. In fact he’s been remarkably consistent in hitting his high marks in his main targets. He is also often criticised for his jumping, but has never fallen or unseated in 15 chase appearances all of which he has finished in the frame.
Long Run should be able to improve on his seasonal reappearance and hit something in the high 170s, which means he has an excellent chance of reclaiming this. A decent pace will also bring his superior stamina into play.
Of the others, Cue Card is improving, but in comparative terms he has run to a best of 170 and may not fully get the trip. So unless he improves another half a stone over three miles (which seems unlikely) he shouldn’t be troubling the favourite.
Sizing Europe and Sir Des Champs look set to stay in Ireland, while Grands Crus must step up dramatically on his effort in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, where he went out like a light, and recover from a subsequent breathing operation.
Riverside Theatre seems underrated by many. I had my biggest place bet of the NH season on him when runner-up in this splitting Long Run and Kauto Star and he has won a sequence of three Grade 1s since then, including a cracking renewal of the Ryanair Chase at the Festival.
Conclusion
Long Run looks value at anything bigger than about 2/1 to me, with Riverside Theatre again putting it up to him. Sir Des Champs, Cue Card and Finian’s Rainbow look the best of the remainder and at least one of these is doubtful. The rest have too many questions marks hanging over them, not least being good enough for this in the first place.
1) Long Run
2) Riverside Theatre
3) Cue Card
c Steve Miller Dec 2012
c Steve Miller Dec 2012
