Grand National 2013
King great value to lord it in Aintree spectacle
THE
highweights have been given a chance in recent years, through the handicapper
tending to compress the weights, and indeed the past four winners of this spectacle
have shouldered 11st or more.
Neptune
Collonges ran a huge race off 11st 6lb in last year’s race, earning an RPR of
172, to deprive Sunnyhillboy by a nose (carrying 15lbs less), with everything
down to fifth place carrying between 10st and 10st 12lb. Good as he was,
Neptune Collonges never won a Gold Cup, but Aintree top-weight Imperial
Commander has, which will encourage his supporters. However with 11st 10lb on
his back I’ll not be burdening him further with any of my money. Recent winning
results aside it usually pays to look much lower down the handicap
Just
three are out of the handicap proper at the bottom of the card, but set to
carry only a little more than their actual handicap mark.
I’m
ignoring those carrying more than 11st with the exception of Teaforthree,
Colbert Station and Seabass. I’ve discarded the majority of the remainder for a
variety of reasons, leaving me with a longlist of 14. I believe the winner will
come from this list.
In race card order:
Seabass
Sunnyhillboy
Teaforthree
Colbert
Station
On
His Own
Balthazar
King
Cappa
Bleu
Lost
Glory
Swing
Bill
Saint
Are
Chicago
Grey
Rare
Bob
Mr
Moonshine
Soll
Soll
I’ve
cut these down further and am left with a shortlist of eight (again in race
card order):
Teaforthree
Colbert
Station
On
His Own
Balthazar
King
Cappa
Bleu
Chicago
Grey
Rare
Bob
Soll
Soll
As
always, concentrate on a small group of about three or four. On His Own, Cappa
Bleu, Seabass and Sunnyhillboy made my shortlist last year and while I believe
Sunnyhillboy may be overburdened this time, I’m not totally put off the other
three. Of this year’s fancies On His
Own, Balthazar King and Cappa Bleu
fall into a sweet spot in the handicap, while lower down the weights Chicago Grey, Rare Bob and Soll can show up.
My
six against the field follow with BALTHAZAR
KING looking cracking value at 20/1, for trainer Philip Hobbs and rider
Richard Johnson.
Prediction:
1)
Balthazar
King
2)
On
His Own
3)
Teaforthree
4)
Cappa
Bleu
5)
Chicago
Grey
6)
Rare
Bob
Grand National Winners
Year
|
Horse
|
Age/Weight
|
Jockey
|
Trainer
|
Owner
|
SP
|
Time
|
Going
|
Run
|
2012
|
Neptune Collonges
|
11 11-6
|
Daryl Jacob
|
Paul Nicholls
|
J Hales
|
33/1
|
9m 5.10s
|
Good, Good to Soft in places
|
40
|
2011
|
Ballabriggs
|
10 11-0
|
Jason Maguire
|
Donald McCain
|
Trevor Hemmings
|
14/1
|
9m 1.20s
|
Good (28 fences 2 omitted)
|
40
|
2010
|
Don't Push It
|
10 11-5
|
Tony McCoy
|
Jonjo O'Neill
|
JP McManus
|
10/1
|
9m 4.60s
|
Good
|
40
|
2009
|
Mon Mome
|
9 11-0
|
Liam Treadwell
|
Venetia Williams
|
Vida Bingham
|
100/1
|
9m 32.90s
|
Good To Soft
|
40
|
2008
|
Comply or Die
|
9 10-9
|
Timmy Murphy
|
David Pipe
|
David Johnson
|
7-11
|
9m 16.6 seconds
|
Good
|
40
|
2007
|
Silver Birch
|
10 10-06
|
Robbie Power
|
Gordon Elliott IRE
|
Brian Walsh
|
33/1
|
9m 13.60s
|
Good
|
40
|
2006
|
Numbersixvalverde
|
10 10-08
|
Niall Madden
|
Martin Brassil IRE
|
Bernard Carroll
|
11/1
|
9m 41.00s
|
Gd-Soft
|
40
|
2005
|
Hedgehunter
|
09 11-01
|
Ruby Walsh
|
Willie Mullins IRE
|
Trevor Hemmings
|
7/1 F
|
9m 20.80s
|
Gd-Soft
|
40
|
2004
|
Amberleigh House
|
12 10-10
|
Graham Lee
|
Donald McCain
|
Halewood Int. Ltd
|
16/1
|
9m 20.30s
|
Good
|
39
|
2003
|
Monty's Pass
|
10 10-07
|
Barry Geraghty
|
Jimmy Mangan IRE
|
Dee Racing Syn
|
16/1
|
9m 21.70s
|
Good
|
40
|
2002
|
Bindaree
|
08 10-04
|
Jim Culloty
|
Nigel Twiston-Davies
|
Raymond Mould
|
20/1
|
9m 9.00s
|
Good
|
40
|
2001
|
Red Marauder
|
11 10-11
|
Richard Guest
|
Norman Mason
|
Norman Mason
|
33/1
|
11m 0.10s
|
Heavy
|
40
|
2000
|
Papillon
|
09 10-12
|
Ruby Walsh
|
Ted Walsh IRE
|
Betty Moran
|
10/1
|
9m 9.70s
|
Gd-Firm
|
40
|
