Royal Ascot, Gold Cup preview
The four-year-olds Estimate and Last Train get chance to shine at a trip made for them
Estimate to pass endurance test
Retired US jockey and trainer, Danny Perlsweig, once
noted that a horse can get any distance if you give it enough time! This grasps
an essential truth that the perceived attributes of speed and stamina are far
from mutually exclusive and in fact should rather be seen as a form or
expression of the same thing, that of endurance under stress (with stress defined
as sustained pace).
While few thoroughbreds genuinely stay 20 furlongs, the
horse able to sustain the greatest overall pace at the distance will win.
It is rare for a horse to be able to give optimum
performance when asked to endure extreme distance at the sort of pace required
for a Group 1. Something invariably has to give. Consequently it is common for
horses that do manage to get the balance about right to win the race more than
once (Yeats, Royal Rebel, Kayf Tara, Drum Taps, Sadeem, Gildoran, Ardross, Le
Moss and Sagaro have all won this race at least twice since the mid-1970s).
The
table includes the 19 still in this year’s renewal [Pale
Mimosa now a non-runner]. As usual it is organised with those showing
the greatest stamina potential at the top, ranked in order of Dosage index
(DI). Note that the top eight have negative centres of distribution (CD),
indicating pronounced stamina aptitude.
2013 Ascot Gold Cup contenders
Horse sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Estimate Monsun/Darshaan 0-0-11-9-6 = 26 0.27 -0.81
High Jinx High
Chaparral/Surumu 2-0-7-5-2 = 16 0.52 -0.31
Colour Vision Rainbow
Quest/Monsun 8-0-20-14-4 = 46 0.64
-0.13
Times Up Olden
Times/Ile De Bourbon 2-0-7-3-2 = 14 0.65 -0.21
Last Train Rail
Link/Rainbow Quest 2-2-13-7-2 = 26 0.68 -0.19
Pale Mimosa Singspiel/Danehill 4-2-20-7-3
= 36 0.80 -0.08
Repeater Montjeu/Mark
Of Esteem 2-1-10-4-1 = 18 0.80 -0.06
Saddler’s Rock Sadler’s
Wells/Groom Dancer 7-1-22-8-4 = 42 0.83 -0.02
Altano Galileo/Lando 3-0-7-4-0 = 14 0.87 0.14
Vadamar Dalakhani/Unfuwain 3-0-6-1-2 = 12 1.00 0.08
Model Pupil Sinndar/Sadler’s
Wells 4-3-14-7-0 = 28 1.00 0.14
Earl Of Tinsdal Black
Sam Bellamy/Dashing Blade 5-0-10-4-1 = 20 1.00 0.20
Number Theory Halling/Barathea 5-0-8-4-1 = 18 1.00 0.22
El Salvador Galileo/Kris 6-0-10-5-1 = 22 1.00 0.23
Rite Of Passage Giant’s
Causeway/Kris S 3-2-33-1-1 = 40 1.16 0.13
Simenon Marju/Alzao 4-1-8-3-0 = 16 1.29 0.38
Top Trip Dubai
Destination/Kahyasi 7-1-11-5-0 = 24 1.29 0.42
Biographer Montjeu/Seeking
The Gold 7-4-15-4-0
= 30 1.61 0.47
Aaim To Prosper Val
Royal/Ahonoora 7-4-5-2-0
= 18 3.00 0.89
Key to Profile: Left
to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate,
Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of
Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to
-2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage
profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds
to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative
CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.
The
Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Colour Vision
saw off Opinion Poll and Saddler’s Rock to land this last year. The five-year-old
gelding’s sire and damsire, Rainbow Quest and Monsun, are Classic/Solid chefs-de-race (chiefs of breed) and
consequently the gelding has a particularly high concentration of 18 points in the
stamina wing of his profile putting him on a prime DI of 0.64 for victory here,
as highlighted in last year’s column on this race. However, he has proved
unsuccessful in five outings since winning this.
Times Up got
the better of High Jinx by a neck in
last season’s Doncaster Cup and was earlier successful against the same
opponent in York’s Lonsdale Cup. On respective DIs of 0.65 and 0.52 they flank
Colour Vision in a sweet spot in our table.
The
John Oxx trained five-year-old entire Saddler’s
Rock had to narrowly give best to the Godolphin pair in this last season. Although
he reversed form with Colour Vision at Goodwood at the beginning of August he
has not made the frame in six subsequent starts. But he relishes a test of
stamina and is useful.
Rite Of Passage,
the winner of the 2010 Gold Cup has raced only twice since that victory winning
the Long Distance Cup at Ascot last October. He clearly stays very well, even
better than the Dosage suggests. The nine-year-old gelding has won four of his
five starts on the Flat, finding only Fame And Glory too good. He goes for this
without a prep.
Her
Majesty the Queen’s Monsun filly Estimate
appears at the head of our table for stamina aptitude. The Sagaro Stakes winner
is out of the Darshaan mare Ebaziya and consequently a half-sister to the
entire Enzeli, who won this in 1999. She is yet to race beyond two
miles, but the four-year-old filly
is likely to excel at this extended trip with a Dosage reading for extreme
stamina potential. Sir
Michael Stoute is a previous winner of this race with Shangamuzo in 1978. The
last filly to win the Gold Cup was Indian Queen when landing odds of 25/1 in
1991.
Pale Mimosa is another four-year-old filly that will not only stay the
distance but improve for stepping up in trip. Dermot Weld’s charge, by
Singspiel, is a relatively unexposed winner of three of her five appearances.
The top half of her pedigree is key to her chances here.
The
Willie Mullins-trained Simenon was a
dual Royal Ascot winner last year and ran a terrific race when fourth under top
weight in the Chester Cup last time out. The six-year-old gelding appears to
come into his own at trips above two miles, but on a pure Dosage reading others
are preferred at this level.
The
David Lanigan-trained Biographer is a
son of Montjeu out of a Seeking The Gold mare. The colt is a progressive
middle-distance to staying sort and may improve again for stepping up in trip.
Andreas Wohler intends to run the seven-year-old gelding Altano, who may be joined by dual Group
1 winning stablemate Earl Of Tinsdal, providing
there is enough give for this soft ground specialist. Both have points in the
stamina wing of their Dosage profiles.
Top Trip
is expected to represent trainer Francois Doumen. The colt has won at 11
furlongs at Group 2 level in France and was beaten a nose in the Yorkshire Cup
last time out. By Dubai Destination out of a Kahyasi mare, a mixture of speed
and stamina influences are evident in his profile.France is also represented by Andre Fabre’s Last Train and Mikel Delzangles Vadamar. Last Train is an exciting Group winning colt at two miles, by Arc winner Rail Link, with another Arc winner in Rainbow Quest as his dam sire. The Dosage gives him good chances of improving again when tried at this trip. Vadamar is a five-year-old Group 2 winning gelding by Dalakhani who won a conditions race last time out. He should stay beyond middle distances.
Ballydoyle’s
Imperial Monarch has been denied his chance of appearing here, but his
stablemate El Salvador could take
part. By Galileo out of a Kris mare the colt has won at 13 furlongs on heavy
going, but others are preferred in this.
The
Sir Mark Prescott-trained Repeater,
by Montjeu out of a Mark Of Esteem mare,
should also stay well enough in theory but may be out of his depth in terms of
class.
Negative centre of distribution
If (in crude terms) a Dosage
index of 1.0 and a centre of distribution of zero is the blueprint for a Derby contender,
for a potential Ascot Gold Cup winner we are looking for a DI of less than 1
and ideally a negative CD (the last couple of winners are ideal examples of
what we should be looking for). Past winners of the race conforming to this
ideal are: Colour Vision (DI 0.64, CD -0.13), Fame And Glory (0.65, -0.25), Papineau
(0.88, -0.04), Enzeli (0.54, -0.45), Celeric (0.00, -1.44), Double Trigger (0.21,
-1.40) and Arcadian Heights (0.90, -0.05) – while Yeats (0.89, +0.08), Kayf
Tara (0.90, +0.08) and Classic Cliché (0.84, 0.00) qualify in terms of DI and
are very close to qualifying in respect of CD.
Dosage of previous winners
Year horse DI CD
2012 Colour
Vision 0.64 -0.13
2011 Fame And Glory 0.65
-0.25
2010 Rite Of Passage 1.16 0.13
2009 Yeats 0.89 0.08
2008 Yeats 0.89 0.08
2007 Yeats 0.89 0.08
2006 Yeats 0.89 0.08
2005 Westerner 1.53 0.25
2004 Papineau 0.88 -0.04
Average 0.93
Shortlist
There
are eight in this year’s race with negative CDs and a DI of below 1: Estimate (DI 0.27, CD -0.81), High Jinx (0.52,
-0.31), Colour Vision (0.64, -0.13), Times
Up (0.65, -0.21), Last Train (0.68, -0.19), Pale Mimosa (0.80, -0.08), Repeater
(0.80, -0.06) and Saddler’s Rock (0.83, -0.02), with others such as Altano close to qualifying.
We
shouldn’t ignore Estimate’s reading
for pronounced stamina potential and consequently side with the Queen’s filly. Colour Vision and Rite Of Passage have obvious chances, as past winners of this, if
capturing past form, as does Saddler’s
Rock. Times Up and High Jinx flank Colour Vision in a
sweet spot in our table, Pale Mimosa is
unexposed and will stay the trip well and Last Train
is an exciting contender who should be right there when push comes to shove, at
a big price for place backers.
Verdict
1) Estimate
2) Last Train
3) Saddler’s Rock
More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr
Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com
and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance,
published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.
c S E Miller 2013
