Eye Of The Storm and Excess Knowledge are the selections with regard to stamina aptitude
Eye Of The Storm, Feel Like Dancing and London Bridge
have not been declared leaving 11 to line up on Saturday.
Excess Knowledge to pass Town Moor stamina test
THE DOSAGE system comes into its own when analysing Group races that
require a test of stamina. It is particularly useful when there is scant form
at the distance to go on and in situations where those taking part are still
largely unexposed. Indeed, there are few, if any, races in which the Dosage
gives us more of an edge than the St Leger.
The
race is no respecter of class and quality thoroughbreds that have been
successful at shorter trips, including Derby and Oaks winners, have been found
wanting in this, including Camelot last season when falling short of the
elusive Triple Crown. Perhaps partly
because the race can embarrass many of the best, connections of good horses
have been prone to turning their backs on it.
Winning criteria
The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 19
winners of the race is 1.08 (a little lower than the average for the Derby) with
the ‘right types’ having a DI below 1 (the lower the DI the more stamina
aptitude). Of these past winners, the overwhelming majority satisfy the
requirement of a DI of about 1 or lower – they comprise: Encke (DI 1.05), Masked Marvel (0.68),
Mastery (1.00), Conduit (0.76), Sixties Icon (1.00), Scorpion
(1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83),
Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (0.92), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83)
and Moonax (0.73).
The
table shows the 14 remaining in this season’s final classic. As usual, it is
arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least
at the bottom, ranked in order of DI.
2013 St Leger contenders
Horse Sire/dam
sire Profile DI CD
Excess Knowledge Monsun/Dansili 1-1-13-11-0 =
26 0.49 -0.31
Libertarian New
Approach/Darshaan 1-1-7-3-2
= 14 0.65 -0.29
Feel Like Dancing Galileo/Darshaan 3-0-10-5-2 = 20 0.67 -0.15
Eye Of The Storm Galileo/Shirley Heights 4-1-15-6-4 = 30 0.71 -0.17
Galileo Rock Galileo/Groom Dancer 5-0-11-4-4 = 24 0.78 -0.08
Cap O’Rushes New Approach/Shirley
Heights 5-1-14-4-4 = 28 0.87 -0.04
Talent New
Approach/Peintre Celebre 3-0-13-4-0 = 20 0.90 0.10
Leading Light Montjeu/Gone West 6-6-25-13-0 = 50 0.96 0.10
Foundry Galileo/Dixieland
Band 5-0-12-5-0 = 22 1.00 0.23
Ralston Road Dylan Thomas/Galileo 4-2-12-2-0 = 20 1.50 0.40
Havana Beat Teofilo/Desert Prince 1-2-5-2-0 = 10 1.22 0.20
Great Hall Halling/Machiavellian 7-0-6-4-1 = 18 1.25 0.44
Secret Number Raven’s Pass/Alleged 5-4-10-0-1 = 20 2.33 0.60
London Bridge Arch/Indian Ridge 1-11-13-1-0
= 26 2.47 0.46
Key to Profile: Left
to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate,
Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of
Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to
-2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage
profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1
corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero)
or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.
While the David
Wachman-trained Galileo Rock hasn’t
won a race this season he has been placed in the Derby and its Irish
equivalent. The Galileo colt is out of a Groom Dancer mare and should have no
problem with the St Leger trip, with eight points in the stamina wing of his
profile and a negative centre of distribution (CD). In the absence of Ruler Of
The World and Trading Leather he carries the standard for classic
middle-distance form to the race.
John Gosden’s Excess Knowledge, who heads our table
for stamina aptitude, has been asked to run at inadequate trips to date and just
failed to catch Cap O’Rushes in the
Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. The son of German stallion Monsun will relish stepping
up to this. Cap O’Rushes could finish only sixth of seven in the Great Voltigeur
and may have been unsuited by the fast going at York. By Derby hero New
Approach out of a Shirley Heights mare he also ought to stay.
Libertarian was
a good winner of the Dante when beating Trading Leather and finished runner-up
in the Derby, but was very disappointing at the Curragh when struggling a long
way out. Another by New Approach (himself a son of Galileo) with strong dam
side stamina influences through the Darshaan-Shirley Heights line. Only Excess
Knowledge heads him in our stamina aptitude table.
The Aidan O’Brien-trained
Queen’s Vase winner Leading Light is
unbeaten this season. The Montjeu colt, out of a Gone West mare (coincidently
the two latest stallions to be handed chef-de-race
status, see http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/montjeu.htm and http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/gone_west.htm), will
have no trouble at this trip, with no fewer than 13 points in the stamina wing
of his profile.
Leading Light’s stablemate Foundry was an eye-catching runner-up
on only his second racecourse appearance to Telescope in the Great Voltigeur,
with Godolphin’s Secret Number
half-a-length away in third in what appeared to be a strong renewal. The York
race is a pretty good trial for the St Leger. Reference Point succeeded in
landing the double in 1987 and since then four others have followed suit –
Bob’s Return, Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno – while another seven – Snurge,
Mutafaweq, Silver Patriarch, Bollin Eric, Brian Boru, Mastery and Encke – were no
worse than fourth in the Voltigeur before following up in the final classic.
Foundry was touted for the
Derby early this season and has an ideal Dosage profile for that race. Despite
notable failures, Derby types can also step up to effect in this, with many
past winners and placed horses having a DI of about 1. However, the ideal DI
for this race would be below 1, given a suitable representation from this
category, which is certainly the case in this year’s race.
Eye
Of The Storm, another from Ballydoyle, hadn’t been seen
out since April when splitting Sugar Boy and Galileo Rock in the Sandown
Classic trial, until finishing runner-up in a Listed race against older horses
on Monday at Galway. He is bred for stamina and is one of several in the race
that has Shirley Heights as a prepotent stamina influence on the dam side. The
colt is unexposed and has been tried at inadequate distances to date.
Unfortunately the St Leger is likely to come too soon for him, but the colt would
hold strong chances if lining up.
Feel
Like Dancing won his most recent race at Newmarket for
trainer John Gosden and owner/breeder Lady Bamford. The colt is bred on the
same Galileo/Darshaan cross as Telescope, out of different mares, he features
prominently in our table and will not fail through lack of stamina.
The Brian Meehan-trained Great Hall won last time out at Haydock
over 14 furlongs in handicap company. By Halling out of a Machiavellian mare,
he is not without chances, but others make more appeal in this.
The Ralph Beckett-trained Talent is the only filly that could still
make the line up. We marked her out earlier in the season as a decent prospect
at a mile-and-a-half. She was staying on strongly when taking the Oaks and
should give herself chances of getting the trip here with a typical DI for this
race, if putting her Irish Oaks flop behind her.
She would become the first Oaks winner to beat the colts in the St Leger since
User Friendly in 1992.
Speed/stamina balance
The average DI for the past 19
winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for the race below 1.
Dosage of previous St Leger winners
Year Horse DI CD
2012 Encke 1.05 0.20
2011 Masked Marvel 0.68 -0.13
2010 Arctic Cosmos 1.77
0.50
2009 Mastery 1.00 0.00
2008 Conduit 0.76 -0.09
2007 Lucarno
1.34 0.26
2006 Sixties
Icon 1.00 0.23
2005 Scorpion 1.00 0.19
2004 Rule
Of Law 2.11 0.17
2003 Brian
Boru 1.05 0.18
2002 Bollin
Eric 1.00 0.14
2001 Milan 0.77 -0.05
2000 Millenary 0.83 0.02
1999 Mutafaweq 1.07 0.14
1998 Nedawi 0.92 0.09
1997 Silver
Patriarch 1.00 0.03
1996 Shantou 1.67 0.38
1995 Classic
Cliché 0.83 0.00
1994 Moonax 0.73 -0.04
____
Average
Dosage index = 1.08
Shortlist
With
regard to stamina suitability those in the top half of our table are best
placed: Excess
Knowledge (DI 0.49), Libertarian (0.65), Feel Like Dancing (0.67), Eye Of The Storm (0.71), Galileo Rock (0.78), Cap O’Rushes (0.87), Talent
(0.90), Leading Light (0.96), and
Foundry (1.0).
Conclusion
Of these, Foundry probably has the most scope for
improvement having raced just twice, but his stablemate Eye Of The Storm is also unexposed and is bred for a test of
stamina, while the Aidan O’Brien-trained Leading
Light has done nothing wrong and indeed everything right in landing the
Queen’s Vase and remaining undefeated this season. All three are similarly
rated and the one who is improving most at this stage of the season will win
the day from the Ballydoyle trio. Excess
Knowledge has been run at inadequate trips and is fully entitled to make
his presence felt here, as is Galileo
Rock, while the filly Talent
should not be dismissed. With not much to choose between them otherwise we look
to the top of our stamina aptitude table. In the absence of Eye Of The Storm Excess Knowledge is taken to see off a strong Ballydoyle challenge,
with Galileo Rock and Talent the next best.
Verdict:
1) Excess Knowledge
2)
Foundry/Leading Light
3)
Galileo Rock
More on the Dosage system from the author and
from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com
and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell
Meerdink Company, Ltd.
c S E Miller 2013
