Arc: Finding a three-year-old that has hit form at this time of year is a big advantage
ORFEVRE managed to beat the three-year-olds last year, despite finishing
runner-up, and on the face of it looks a logical favourite to make amends this
time.
However, three-year-olds win this race, having a big advantage at
this stage of the season against the older horses at weight-for-age. Since the WFA
allowance was changed in 1995, favouring the three-year-old even more than they
were before, the score is 14-4 in the classic generation’s favour.
Half the field is made up of three-year-olds this time so
it should be possible to find a couple capable of beting the older horses.
The 3yo filly Treve gets a filly’s allowance on top, so she
will have to shoulder just 8st 8lb, meaning that Orefevre will have to be 11lb
better than her to match her and better than that to beat her. If he really is
a stone better than her he has a chance, but he will have to run the race of
his life to prove it.
There are also eight better than useful colts in the field.
Of these, Japanese raider Kizuna is well fancied. Andre Fabre is represented by
four of them (in addition to a 5yo) and all are up to scratch.
Aidan O’Brien runs two – the Derby winner Ruler Of The World and the St Leger
winner Leading Light. Both of these
have run into form at the right time. Backing both of these should prove value.
Leading Light will relish the going and must be backed each-way.
P.S. The draw is
nothing to get excited about (don’t believe too much what they are telling
you!). If they are good enough they can win from pretty much
anywhere. Sagace was able to win from berth 17 and Carroll House from 16
and four more (in the past 29 renewals from either 14 or 15). In fact no less
than eight have won from a double-digit draw of the past 29 (1984-2012):
SEM October 2013
