St Leger preview: Windshear to blast Hill

Kingston Hill is race favourite to step up on solid 2,000 Guineas and Derby performances, but will have to overcome the true stamina types at the head of our table

 Windshear to blast Hill

THE DOSAGE system comes into its own when analysing Group races that require a test of stamina. It is particularly useful when there is scant form at the distance to go on and in situations where those taking part are still largely unexposed. Indeed, there are few races in which the Dosage gives us more of an edge than the Ladbrokes St Leger.

Quality thoroughbreds that have been successful at shorter trips, including Derby and Oaks winners, have been found wanting in this, including the likes of classy Camelot when falling short of the elusive Triple Crown in 2012.

Winning criteria

The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 20 winners of the race is 1.07 (a little lower than the average for the Derby) with the ‘right types’ having a DI below 1 (the lower the DI the more stamina potential). Of these past winners, the overwhelming majority satisfy the requirement of a DI of about 1 or lower – they comprise: Leading Light (DI 0.96), Encke (1.05), Masked Marvel (0.68), Mastery (1.00), Conduit (0.76), Sixties Icon (1.00), Scorpion (1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (0.92), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73).

The table shows the 15 remaining in this season’s final classic, with just four trainers accounting for two-thirds of the field. As usual, it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI.

2014 St Leger contenders

Colt                             Sire/dam sire                           Profile                           DI            CD

Windshear                            Hurricane Run/Hernando                  3-0-15-8-4 = 30                    0.54        -0.33

Scotland                                Monsun/Batchelor Duke                    2-0-10-8-0 = 20                    0.54        -0.20

Alex My Boy                           Dalakhani/Sadler’s Wells                  3-0-13-6-4 = 26                    0.58        -0.31 

Romsdal                               Halling/Singspiel                                 3-1-9-6-1 = 20                      0.74        -0.05

Forever Now                         Galileo/Darshaan                                4-0-11-5-2 = 22                    0.76        -0.05 

Hartnell                                  Authorized/Anabaa                              3-2-14-7-0 = 26                    0.86        0.04 

Kings Fete                            Kings Best/Singspiel                          5-1-14-7-1 = 28                    0.87        0.07

Kingston Hill                         Mastercraftsman/Rainbow Quest    3-1-11-5-0 = 20                    0.90        0.10

Kingfisher                             Galileo/Halling                                     5-0-13-6-0 = 24                    0.92        0.17

Granddukeoftuscany          Galileo/Danehill                                   4-2-19-5-0 = 30                    1.07        0.17 

Min Alemarat                        Galileo/Danehill                                   4-2-13-5-0 = 24                    1.09        0.21

Odeon                                    Galileo/Mark Of Esteem                     7-1-9-4-3 = 24                      1.09        0.21

Snow Sky                              Nayef/Dansili                                        5-1-8-4-0 = 18                      1.25        0.39

Somewhat                            Dynaformer/Royal Academy              8-6-21-2-1 = 38                    1.81        0.47

Marzocco                               Kitten’s Joy/Dynaformer                     5-6-15-2-0 = 28                    1.95        0.50 

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Classic form

Last season’s Racing Post Trophy winner, Kingston Hill, by Mastercraftsman out of a Rainbow Quest mare, was tipped in this column to be staying on behind Australia in the Derby. The Roger Varian-trained colt, who ran well in the 2,000 Guineas over an inadequate trip, justified that confidence when runner-up to Australia at Epsom. He is proven at middle distances and on a DI of 0.9, similar to that of last year’s winner Leading Light (on 0.96), he may well have enough stamina allied to his class to step up here. He was a late withdrawal at York last month on account of the fast ground and shapes very well with some cut, which would enhance his chances. If he comes through Saturday’s final Classic with flying colours Varian intends to aim him at next month’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. However, while he is a logical favourite at Doncaster he is far from a certainty and at the available odds we ought to be looking for better value.

Khalid Abdullah’s Gordon Stakes winner Snow Sky ran out a convincing runner-up to Postponed (not entered for the St Leger) in the Great Voltigeur at York, the pair going clear of Odeon, some eight lengths adrift in third. The Nayef colt has won at a mile-and-a-half at Goodwood, when beating Windshear by a neck and the four points in his stamina profile give him chances of stepping up, but those nearer the head of our table have even better chances at the trip. Trainer Sir Michael Stoute, who sent out Conduit to win this in 2008, could also saddle Khalid Abdullah’s Kings Fete, by Kings Best out of a Singspiel mare, and well positioned in our table to make an impact.

Gosden’s options

Lady Bamford’s Eagle Top was taken out of the race when featuring prominently in the market, but she will be represented by the March Stakes winner Forever Now, also trained by John Gosden. Forever Now had enough about him at Goodwood to hold off the persistent challenge of Mark Johnston’s Alex My Boy and Sir Michael Stoute’s Kings Fete in a closely contested event and has ample stamina, being by Galileo out of a Darshaan mare. Gosden could also saddle Romsdal and Marzocco. The Derby third Romsdal, by Halling out of a Singspiel mare, is, like Forever Now, well positioned in the upper part of our table for a prominent showing in this. The Kitten’s Joy colt Marzocco, a maiden winner at Kempton, features at the other end of our table and is of less interest to us at this trip of the Gosden trio.

Ballydoyle

The highest rated of the two that Aidan O’Brien could still send out from his Ballydoyle yard, from his previous squad of five, is the Dee Stakes winner Kingfisher, who finished runner-up to his Australia in the Irish Derby. The son of Galileo’s subsequent last place in the Juddmonte International is best overlooked as he was pacemaking for his stablemate. Nonetheless, while Kingfisher certainly looks entitled to line up in this he looks something short of what is required to actually win it. Granddukeoftuscany made all to win his Tipperary maiden by some 19 lengths. He was subsequently only fifth in the Great Voltigeur, on very different going, when taking a smack in the face when tracking the leader. The Galileo colt could nevertheless develop into a decent stayer.

Strong prospect

However, a stronger prospect for this is the Richard Hannon-trained Windshear, not out of the first two in seven starts, who went down by a diminishing neck to Snow Sky on his latest start at Goodwood. The Hurricane Run colt is bred for stamina, being out of the Hernando mare Portal. He can improve again and, at the head of our table for stamina aptitude with 12 stamina points and a negative centre of distribution, is a danger to all over this trip.

The Mark Johnston-trained Hartnell is fully exposed as a winner of five of his 12 starts and has close form with several in this, but was disappointing when a well beaten sixth behind Postponed and Snow Sky at York last time out. The Queen’s Vase winner should nonetheless be respected at this distance. Johnston could also saddle Alex My Boy and Somewhat. Of this pair Alex My Boy is interesting being by Dalakhani and featuring near the top of our table.

Of the remainder, the Andrew Balding-trained Monsun colt Scotland is a conditions race winner at Epsom last season, but has failed to score when tried at Group level this season. He will not fail through want of stamina, but would need to improve to reverse form with one or two lining up here.

Speed/stamina balance

The average DI for the past 20 winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for the race below 1. A low or negative CD is also an advantage, especially when the race lacks a top-notch middle distance type that is capable of stepping up.

Dosage of previous St Leger winners

Year       Horse                                                 DI                            CD

2013       Leading Light                                       0.96                        0.10

2012       Encke                                                 1.05                        0.20

2011       Masked Marvel                                     0.68                        -0.13

2010       Arctic Cosmos                                     1.77                         0.50

2009       Mastery                                               1.00                         0.00

2008       Conduit                                                0.76                        -0.09

2007       Lucarno                                               1.34                         0.26

2006       Sixties Icon                                          1.00                         0.23

2005       Scorpion                                              1.00                         0.19

2004       Rule Of Law                                          2.11                        0.17

2003       Brian Boru                                            1.05                         0.18

2002       Bollin Eric                                             1.00                         0.14

2001       Milan                                                    0.77                        -0.05

2000       Millenary                                               0.83                         0.02

1999       Mutafaweq                                            1.07                          0.14

1998       Nedawi                                                  0.92                         0.09

1997       Silver Patriarch                                      1.00                          0.03

1996       Shantou                                                1.67                          0.38

1995       Classic Cliché                                        0.83                         0.00

1994       Moonax                                                 0.73                        -0.04

                                                                          ____

Average Dosage index      =                              1.07

Shortlist

With regard to stamina suitability those on a DI of below 1 and a low or negative CD comprise: Windshear (DI 0.54), Scotland (0.54), Alex My Boy (0.58), Romsdal (0.74), Forever Now (0.76), Hartnell (0.86), Kings Fete (0.87), Kingston Hill (0.90) and Kingfisher (0.92). We might also be tempted to add Snow Sky to our shortlist, whose combination of class and stamina potential could bring him into the reckoning.

The class middle distance horse with the ability to step up is no doubt best represented this year by Kingston Hill and possibly Snow Sky, but if the race develops into a real test of stamina those closer to the top of our table, such as Windshear, Alex My Boy, Romsdal and Forever Now will be favoured. At available odds Windshear and Forever Now look the value, although Kingston Hill, while far from unbeatable, may prove a tough nut to crack.

Verdict:

1)    Windshear
2)    Kingston Hill
3)    Forever Now/Romsdal

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.