Tenacious Stars represents Classic form and shows solid middle-distance stamina
THE DOSAGE system comes into
its own when analysing Group races that require a test of stamina. It is
particularly useful when there is scant form at the distance to go on and in
situations where those taking part are still largely unexposed. Indeed, there
are few races in which the system gives us more of an edge than the Ladbrokes St
Leger.
Winning criteria
The
average Dosage index (DI) for the past 10 winners of the race is 1.04 with the
‘right types’ having a DI of below 1 (the lower the DI the more stamina potential).
Of recent past winners, the overwhelming majority satisfy the requirement of a
DI of about 1 or lower – they comprise: Kingston Hill (DI 0.90), Leading Light (0.96), Encke (1.05), Masked
Marvel (0.68), Mastery (1.00), Conduit
(0.76), Sixties Icon (1.00), Scorpion (1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric
(1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (0.92), Silver
Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73).
The table shows the eight still
in contention for this season’s final Classic. As usual, it is arranged with
those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the
bottom, ranked in order of DI. This year several of the profiles have the look
of middle-distance performers rather than dyed-in-the-wool stayers. Relative
stamina performance will nevertheless play a part.
2015 St Leger contenders
Colt Sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Vengeur
Masque Monsun/Lear Fan 1-0-19-8-0 = 28 0.60 -0.21
Medrano Archipenko/Lomitas 6-0-17-7-2 = 32 0.83 0.03
Simple Verse Duke Of
Marmalade/Sadler’s Wells 4-2-18-7-1 = 32 0.88 0.03
Storm
The Stars Sea The
Stars/Sadler’s Wells 4-1-19-4-0 = 28 1.07 0.18
Proposed Invincible
Spirit/Mi Cielo 3-3-10-2-2 = 20 1.22 0.15
Bondi
Beach Galileo/Danehill 5-2-13-4-0 = 24 1.29 0.33
Fields
Of Athenry Galileo/Danehill 6-2-14-4-0 = 26 1.36 0.38
Order
Of St George Galileo/Gone West 7-6-15-4-0 = 32 1.78 0.50
2014:
Kingston Hill (Mastercraftsman/Rainbow Quest) 3-1-11-5-0 = 20, 0.90, 0.10
Key to Profile: Left
to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate,
Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of
Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to
-2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage
profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1
corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero)
or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.
Solid
form
The
winner of York’s Great Voltigeur Stakes, Storm
The Stars, carries solid Classic form into the St Leger on his placed
efforts behind the John Gosden pair Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs in the Derby and
Irish Derby respectively. While he has won only three of his 10 starts he has
been placed in all but one of his other appearances and has shown a high level
of consistency for his trainer William Haggas.
The
Great Voltigeur has proven a reliable trial for the final Classic. Since 1971,
Athens Wood, Bustino, Reference Point, Bob’s Return, Milan, Rule Of Law and
Lucarno have won both races and the likes of Moon Madness, Snurge, Silver
Patriarch, Bollin Eric, Brian Boru, Mastery and Encke, have been placed in the
Great Voltigeur before winning the Leger. Being placed in the Derby is also no
obstacle to winning at Doncaster, with Shantou, Silver Patriarch, Rule Of Law
and last year’s St Leger winner Kingston Hill all managing the feat since the
mid-1990s. On this basis, Storm The Stars has excellent credentials for this
season’s renewal.
The
son of Sea The Stars is out of an unraced Sadler’s Wells mare. Sadler’s Wells
is a Classic/Solid chef-de-race
(chief of breed) in the Dosage system and the sire of Sea The Stars, Cape Cross,
has recently (in August 2015) been established as a Classic chef-de-race. While this doesn’t show
bottomless stamina, a DI of 1.07 is well within the acceptable range to be
successful in both the Derby and the St Leger, with 10-year average DIs for
those races being 1.19 and 1.04 respectively, and middle-distance stamina may
be all that is required in this year’s renewal in the absence of true and fully
effective stamina types.
O’Brien options
Aidan O’Brien again had
plenty of decent Leger prospects to choose from, which has boiled down to three
Galileo colts – Bondi Beach, Fields Of Athenry and Order Of St George.
The unexposed Bondi Beach, finished close up to Storm
The Stars at York and had previously won the Curragh Cup, albeit narrowly from
his stablemate Order Of St George.
Despite being bumped and carried across the track by a determined winner at
York, Storm The Stars looked to have his measure that day. Bondi Beach
nevertheless looks open to further improvement.
Since going down by a short
head to his stablemate Bondi Beach, on his seasonal reappearance in the Curragh
Cup, Order
Of St George has won twice,
most recently on his return to the Curragh where he beat Sea Moon by some
seven-and-a-half lengths over 14 furlongs. It is unclear at the time of writing
which one of the Ballydoyle trio will be their first string. All three are by
Galileo and all three have already proved effective beyond middle-distances and
as things stand are on official ratings of 115 (Bondi Beach and Order Of St
George) and 114 (Fields Of Athenry), setting a level just below that of Storm
The Stars on an OR of 116. All three are also within acceptable parameters for
winning the St Leger despite appearing in a cluster at the foot of our table.
Fields Of Athenry is a relentless front runner that has won three of
his five starts this season and was pitched in against the older horses in the
Ebor last time out for his new owner, where he blazed a trail before fading out
of the frame. He was far from disgraced, however, registering a very decent RPR
of 118 in the process. The three Galileo colts are expressions of middle-distance
stamina rather than extreme stamina attributes.
David
Brown’s exposed Medrano, winner of
two of his 12 starts, looks like a soft ground performer. He won a Listed race
at Hamilton in good style before stepping up to Group company behind Highland
Reel at Goodwood and Storm The Stars at York. He raced too keenly in the Great
Voltigeur and dropped out in the straight. He nevertheless has good stamina potential.
Proposed
won a Sandown maiden in May after struggling at Group 3 level, but has finished
down his fields since when stepped up in trip. On sub-100 ratings the
Invincible Spirit colt is almost certainly not good enough to make an impact
here for trainer Richard Hannon.
Legitimate stayers
At
the head of our table the Mikel Delzangles-trained Vengeur
Masque has won two of his five
starts in France, but has plenty to find with his principal rivals here.
However, the son of Monsun is at least a legitimate stayer and should not
disgrace himself at the trip with eight points in the stamina wing of his
profile and a negative centre of distribution.
The
filly Simple Verse, who has been supplemented
for the race at a cost of £50,000, should also come into her own at this trip.
The Ralph Beckett-trained winner of three of her four most recent races,
including the Lillie Langtry Stakes at Glorious Goodwood over 14 furlongs, will
attempt to become the first filly to win the race since User Friendly in 1992. A
daughter of Duke Of Marmalade out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, and on a DI of 0.88
and a CD of 0.03, she has just the sort of Dosage profile required for the St Leger
but will need to progress again in terms of ability with the colts nearer to
the head of the market. Beckett has been knocking on
the door of the St Leger with his Oaks winners Look Here and Talent who
finished third and second in this respectively and victory here is certainly
within the realms of possibility.
Speed/stamina balance
The average DI for the past 10
winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for the race below 1. A low or
negative CD is also an advantage (this is especially true when the race lacks a
top-notch middle-distance type that is capable of stepping up; but that does
not quite appear to be the case this year with the likes of Storm The Stars and
the O’Brien trio taking part).
Dosage of previous St Leger winners
Year Horse DI CD
2014 Kingston Hill 0.90 0.10
2013 Leading Light 0.96 0.10
2012 Encke 1.05 0.20
2011 Masked Marvel 0.68 -0.13
2010 Arctic Cosmos 1.77 0.50
2009 Mastery 1.00 0.00
2008 Conduit 0.76 -0.09
2007 Lucarno
1.34 0.26
2006 Sixties
Icon 1.00 0.23
2005 Scorpion 1.00 0.19
Average
Dosage index = 1.04
Those with the best stamina
credentials this year do not also look the best in terms of raw talent. This is
good news for Storm The Stars and the Ballydoyle contingent who fall within the
broader category of middle-distance stamina, which is also acceptable for
winning this race. Preference is given to William Haggas’s admirable Storm The Stars over the likes of Bondi Beach, Fields Of
Athenry and Order Of St George. Ralph Beckett’s progressive filly Simple Verse may prove good enough to
make the frame.
Verdict:
1) Storm The Stars
2)
Bondi Beach
3)
Fields Of Athenry/Order
Of St George
4) Simple Verse
More
on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book
Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company,
Ltd.
