Idaho gets vote ahead of Parliament
A version of this appears on page 16 of today's Racing Post Weekender
THE
DOSAGE system comes into its own when analysing Group races that require a test
of stamina. It is particularly useful when there is scant form at the distance
to go on and in situations where those taking part are still largely unexposed.
Indeed, there are few races in which the system gives us more of an edge than
the Ladbrokes St Leger.
Winning criteria
The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 10
winners of the race is 1.03 with the ‘right types’ having a DI of below 1 (the
lower the DI the more stamina potential). Of recent winners, the overwhelming
majority satisfy the requirement of a DI of about 1 or lower – they comprise: Simple Verse (DI 0.88), Leading Light (0.96), Encke (1.05), Masked Marvel (0.68), Mastery (1.00), Conduit (0.76), Sixties Icon (1.00), Scorpion
(1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83),
Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (0.92), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83)
and Moonax (0.73). Only Arctic Cosmos had an unusually high DI of 1.77 of
recent winners of the race (see table of recent winners). However, this is
relative to those horses actually taking part. Just two have DIs lower than the
10-year average in this year’s renewal, Ormito and Housesofparliament.
The main table shows
the 15 still in contention for this season’s final Classic at Monday’s
confirmation stage. As usual, it is arranged with those showing the most
stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI.
Note that Galileo will soon
be added to the chef-de-race list (he
is not yet included) as an influence for stamina, as well as middle-distance
speed. This means that the stamina figures for all the featured Galileo’s will be
enhanced, pushing them higher up the table than they currently appear.
2016 St Leger contenders
Colt Sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Ormito Mamool/Acatenango 2-0-9-6-1
= 18 0.57 -0.22
Housesofparliament Galileo/Dixielandband 5-0-12-5-0 = 22 1.00 0.23
Twilight Payment Teofilo/Oasis
Dream 1-2-9-2-0 = 14 1.15 0.14
Idaho Galileo/Danehill 4-2-12-4-0 =
22 1.20 0.27
The Major General Galileo/Danehill 4-2-12-4-0
= 22 1.20 0.27
Sword Fighter Galileo/Grand
Lodge 5-3-8-6-0
= 22 1.20 0.32
Harbour Law Lawman/Pivotal 1-1-5-0-1 = 8 1.29 0.13
Unicorn Galileo/Danehill 5-2-13-4-0 = 24 1.29 0.33
Red
Verdon Lemon Drop
Kid/Choisir 7-0-13-4-0
= 24 1.29 0.42
Triplicate Galileo/Danehill
Dancer 5-2-9-4-0
= 20 1.35 0.40
Harrison Sixties
Icon/Invincible Spirit 3-1-6-2-0
= 12 1.40 0.42
Ventura Storm Zoffany/Haafhd 2-1-6-1-0 = 10 1.50 0.40
Muntahaa Dansili/Linamix 1-3-7-1-0
= 12 1.67 0.33
Kellstorm Galileo/Gone
West 7-6-15-4-0
= 32 1.78 0.50
The Tartan Spartan The
Carbon Unit/Traditionally 6-0-5-0-1
= 12 2.43 0.83
2015: Simple Verse (Duke Of Marmalade/Sadler’s Wells) 4-2-18-7-1 = 32, 0.88, 0.03
Key to Profile: Left
to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate,
Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of
Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to
-2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage
profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1
corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero)
or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.
John Gosden’s Wings
of Desire will not take part, which seems a pity as his Dosage suggested he
could have been a major player at this trip and the yard will instead be
represented by the progressive Muntahaa.
The Dansili colt recently tasted victory at Listed level at Chester and was
previously placed in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot. He needs to improve
again to figure here and others appear better suited to a true stamina test,
according to our table, but there appears to be a level of confidence behind
the colt and his chances are strongly endorsed by his rider Paul Hanagan. Gosden
has been successful in this with Shantou, Lucarno, Arctic Cosmos and Masked
Marvel.
O’Brien options
Aidan O’Brien again
has plenty of options for this with seven still engaged at the time of writing.
Highland Reel’s brother Idaho,
by Galileo out of the Danehill
mare Hveger, was placed behind
Harzand in both the Derby and Irish Derby before taking York’s Great Voltigeur in impressive fashion from his
stablemate Housesofparliament who
ensured an honest pace and is the shortest priced ante-post favourite since
Camelot, who finished runner-up to Godolphin’s Encke in 2012.
The Queen’s Vase and
Curragh Cup winner, Sword Fighter,
took on older horses in the Goodwood Cup at the end of July where he finished
fifth to Big Orange. Back among his own age group he can make his presence
felt, but is normally a front runner and could set the race up for something with
a superior finishing kick.
Ballydoyle could also
be represented by, Kellstorm, The Major General, Triplicate and Unicorn. Unicorn (a brother to the useful stayer
Bondi Beach) and The Major General are,
like Idaho, bred on a Galileo/Danehill cross and likely to show broadly similar
stamina aptitude, while Triplicate
is bred on a Galileo/Danehill Dancer cross and Kellstorm is brother to Gold Cup winner Order Of St George, by
Galileo out of a Gone West mare.
Jim Bolger’s Twilight Payment
is another strong player from Ireland. The son of Teofilo was runner-up to Order Of St George in the Irish St Leger
Trial at the Curragh, keeping on well in closing stages. In relative terms
stamina will not be an issue here.
The Ed Dunlop-trained Red Verdon
was beaten in the Derby and the Irish Derby before putting up arguably his best
performance at Saint-Cloud when splitting Mont Ormel and Cloth Of Stars in the Group
1 Grand Prix de Paris. The son of Lemon Drop Kid had won a handicap off top-weight
at Haydock against his own generation over 12 furlongs in very good style
earlier in the season. He tends to finish his races with a flourish and is certainly
not out of it if still in contention in the final stages. He has a mixture of
influences in his pedigree, but four points in the stamina wing of his profile
gives some hope of him getting the trip here. James Doyle is set to take the
ride.
Harbour Law split Sword Fighter and Twilight Payment in the
Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot of two miles and Laura Mongan’s charge should hold
his own in this company.
Ormito finished runner-up to the useful Kings Fete in
the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury and had previously occupied the same spot behind
Richard Hannon’s Ventura Storm in a
Listed race at Hamilton. The son of Mamool features at the top of our table for staying aptitude and won’t be
beaten for want of stamina. However, Andrew Balding’s charge is exposed and may
be outclassed having only won his maiden in nine appearances. The same applies
to Mick Channon’s Sixties Icon colt Harrison who is also exposed having
won a maiden in eight appearances.
The
Tartan Spartan is an
unexposed winner of a maiden at Thirsk, but looks to have little chance in this
company and features at the foot of our table.
Proven trial
The Great Voltigeur has proven a reliable trial for the final Classic.
Since the early 1970s, Athens Wood, Bustino, Reference Point, Bob’s Return,
Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno have won both races and the likes of Moon
Madness, Snurge, Silver Patriarch, Bollin Eric, Brian Boru, Mastery and Encke,
have been placed in the York race before winning the Leger.
Being placed in the Derby is also no obstacle to winning at Doncaster,
with Shantou, Silver Patriarch, Rule Of Law and Kingston Hill all managing the
feat since the mid-1990s. So on this basis, Idaho has excellent credentials for
this season’s renewal on both York and Epsom form. Also, with Galileo soon to
be added to the chef-de-race list as
an influence for stamina, as well as for middle-distance speed, all of the
Galileo’s in our table should stay a bit better than their headline figures
suggest.
Speed/stamina balance
The
average DI for the past 10 winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for
the race below 1. A low or negative CD is also an advantage (this is especially
true when the race lacks a top-notch middle-distance type that is capable of
stepping up, although this year Idaho may prove to be just that).
Dosage of previous St Leger winners
Year Horse DI CD
2015 Simple Verse 0.88 0.03
2014 Kingston Hill 0.90 0.10
2013 Leading Light 0.96 0.10
2012 Encke 1.05 0.20
2011 Masked Marvel 0.68 -0.13
2010 Arctic Cosmos 1.77 0.50
2009 Mastery 1.00 0.00
2008 Conduit 0.76 -0.09
2007 Lucarno 1.34 0.26
2006 Sixties Icon 1.00 0.23
10-year average Dosage index
= 1.03
Summary
While
Ormito has the sort of Dosage profile you would be looking
for in this he doesn’t look quite up to it in terms of class. Idaho looks the best fit in terms of
stamina potential allied to class and can be expected to have enough of what’s
needed here without necessarily going on to be a cup horse next season. Housesofparliament may again be good
enough to fill the runner-up spot, particularly if not used simply as a
pacemaker, with Twilight Payment, Red Verdon and Harbour Law the best of the rest.
Verdict:
1) Idaho
2) Housesofparliament
3) Twilight Payment
More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr
Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com
and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell
Meerdink Company, Ltd.
