Arc: Bite the bullet and side with the three-year-olds (again)

Arc: Bite the bullet and side with the three-year-olds (again)

It’s tricky this year. The two older horses I keep coming back to are St Nicholas Abbey and Orfevre, but I think I’m going to let both of these go.

According to the Racing Post there will be no mention of Good in the going come Sunday. It is Soft now and expected to be between Soft and Very Soft on the day.

Three-year-olds win this race since the allowance was raised in 1995 (the score is 14-3 in favour of the 3yos).

Although there are fewer 3yos than older horses running this year I reckon they have the advantage and Camelot, Saonois, Masterstroke and Great Heavens form a neat sub-set. Saonois and Masterstoke seem to quicken very well, while Camelot and Great Heavens tend to build momentum and then go clear. I think one of these four will win and nominate Camelot and Saonois as most likely. I can see why people want to be with Orfevre, he’s just about the best as things stand, but there’s not much in it for me and I think a couple of these three-year-olds will improve past him.

I’ll stake weighted win vs place bets on these four.

By opposing the older horses I will ensure decent profit or heavy loss. It’s a risk I’m prepared to take.

The draw is nothing to get excited about. If they are good enough they can win from pretty much anywhere. Sagace was able to win from 17 and Carroll House from 16: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXtvLAX7HejdDZwUXpLMngzNGdVbkkxV1lVbHoyTGc#gid=0

SEM October 2012

Camelot still looks a fine prospect for Arc Glory

Camelot still looks a fine prospect for Arc Glory

It was tactics not ability that got Camelot beat in the St Leger and three-year-olds have won the Arc 14 times since the northern hemisphere wfa allowance was raised to 8lb (11lb for fillies) for three-year-olds over a mile and a half in 1995. Camelot has the best chance of the 3yos and 3yos win this race.

His RPR of 128 is already good enough to see him placed in virtually any Arc.

Prior to 1995 it was a pretty even split between three-year-olds and older horses among winners of the Arc. In the period 1970 to 1994 , 12 three-year-olds and 13 older horses won the race.

We might have concluded the weight-for-age differential was about right (assuming we want to give three-year-olds a concession in championship races in the first place).

In 1995 the northern hemisphere allowance was raised to 8lb (11lb for fillies) for three-year-olds over a mile and a half.

Lammtarra took full advantage of the increased differential and there has been a veritable landslide of three-year-old winners getting in on the act since. No fewer than 14 three-year-olds have won since 1995 and just three older horses.

It is, of course, discouraging to those contemplating keeping the best horses in training at four and five if the premier middle-distance race in Europe is a virtual gimme for the three-year-olds.

This season the older horses dominate the Arc market. So if ever an older horse is to win it should be this season.

Nevertheless, don't be surprised if one of the three-year-olds (hopefully Camelot or perhaps Imperial Monarch or Masterstroke, who has been laid out for a back-end campaign, or perhaps Great Heavens, who needs to be supplemented) again manages to land the spoils.