Arc: Bite the bullet and side with the three-year-olds (again)

Arc: Bite the bullet and side with the three-year-olds (again)

It’s tricky this year. The two older horses I keep coming back to are St Nicholas Abbey and Orfevre, but I think I’m going to let both of these go.

According to the Racing Post there will be no mention of Good in the going come Sunday. It is Soft now and expected to be between Soft and Very Soft on the day.

Three-year-olds win this race since the allowance was raised in 1995 (the score is 14-3 in favour of the 3yos).

Although there are fewer 3yos than older horses running this year I reckon they have the advantage and Camelot, Saonois, Masterstroke and Great Heavens form a neat sub-set. Saonois and Masterstoke seem to quicken very well, while Camelot and Great Heavens tend to build momentum and then go clear. I think one of these four will win and nominate Camelot and Saonois as most likely. I can see why people want to be with Orfevre, he’s just about the best as things stand, but there’s not much in it for me and I think a couple of these three-year-olds will improve past him.

I’ll stake weighted win vs place bets on these four.

By opposing the older horses I will ensure decent profit or heavy loss. It’s a risk I’m prepared to take.

The draw is nothing to get excited about. If they are good enough they can win from pretty much anywhere. Sagace was able to win from 17 and Carroll House from 16: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXtvLAX7HejdDZwUXpLMngzNGdVbkkxV1lVbHoyTGc#gid=0

SEM October 2012