Arc: Finding a three-year-old that has hit form at this time of year is a big advantage

Arc: Finding a three-year-old that has hit form at this time of year is a big advantage

ORFEVRE managed to beat the three-year-olds last year, despite finishing runner-up, and on the face of it looks a logical favourite to make amends this time.

However, three-year-olds win this race, having a big advantage at this stage of the season against the older horses at weight-for-age. Since the WFA allowance was changed in 1995, favouring the three-year-old even more than they were before, the score is 14-4 in the classic generation’s favour.

Half the field is made up of three-year-olds this time so it should be possible to find a couple capable of beting the older horses.

The 3yo filly Treve gets a filly’s allowance on top, so she will have to shoulder just 8st 8lb, meaning that Orefevre will have to be 11lb better than her to match her and better than that to beat her. If he really is a stone better than her he has a chance, but he will have to run the race of his life to prove it.

There are also eight better than useful colts in the field. Of these, Japanese raider Kizuna is well fancied. Andre Fabre is represented by four of them (in addition to a 5yo) and all are up to scratch.

Aidan O’Brien runs two – the Derby winner Ruler Of The World and the St Leger winner Leading Light. Both of these have run into form at the right time. Backing both of these should prove value. Leading Light will relish the going and must be backed each-way.

P.S.     The draw is nothing to get excited about (don’t believe too much what they are telling you!). If they are good enough they can win from pretty much anywhere. Sagace was able to win from berth 17 and Carroll House from 16 and four more (in the past 29 renewals from either 14 or 15). In fact no less than eight have won from a double-digit draw of the past 29 (1984-2012):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXtvLAX7HejdDZwUXpLMngzNGdVbkkxV1lVbHoyTGc#gid=0

SEM October 2013

St Leger 2013 Preview

Eye Of The Storm and Excess Knowledge are the selections with regard to stamina aptitude

Eye Of The Storm, Feel Like Dancing and London Bridge have not been declared leaving 11 to line up on Saturday.

Excess Knowledge to pass Town Moor stamina test 

THE DOSAGE system comes into its own when analysing Group races that require a test of stamina. It is particularly useful when there is scant form at the distance to go on and in situations where those taking part are still largely unexposed. Indeed, there are few, if any, races in which the Dosage gives us more of an edge than the St Leger.

The race is no respecter of class and quality thoroughbreds that have been successful at shorter trips, including Derby and Oaks winners, have been found wanting in this, including Camelot last season when falling short of the elusive Triple Crown. Perhaps partly because the race can embarrass many of the best, connections of good horses have been prone to turning their backs on it.

Winning criteria

The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 19 winners of the race is 1.08 (a little lower than the average for the Derby) with the ‘right types’ having a DI below 1 (the lower the DI the more stamina aptitude). Of these past winners, the overwhelming majority satisfy the requirement of a DI of about 1 or lower – they comprise: Encke (DI 1.05), Masked Marvel (0.68), Mastery (1.00), Conduit (0.76), Sixties Icon (1.00), Scorpion (1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (0.92), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73).

The table shows the 14 remaining in this season’s final classic. As usual, it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI.

2013 St Leger contenders

Horse                         Sire/dam sire                                      Profile                         DI            CD

Excess Knowledge             Monsun/Dansili                              1-1-13-11-0 = 26            0.49        -0.31

Libertarian                          New Approach/Darshaan                1-1-7-3-2 = 14                0.65        -0.29

Feel Like Dancing               Galileo/Darshaan                           3-0-10-5-2 = 20              0.67        -0.15 

Eye Of The Storm               Galileo/Shirley Heights                   4-1-15-6-4 = 30              0.71        -0.17

Galileo Rock                      Galileo/Groom Dancer                     5-0-11-4-4 = 24              0.78        -0.08

Cap O’Rushes                    New Approach/Shirley Heights         5-1-14-4-4 = 28              0.87        -0.04

Talent                                New Approach/Peintre Celebre         3-0-13-4-0 = 20              0.90        0.10

Leading Light                      Montjeu/Gone West                        6-6-25-13-0 = 50            0.96        0.10

Foundry                             Galileo/Dixieland Band                     5-0-12-5-0 = 22              1.00        0.23

Ralston Road                     Dylan Thomas/Galileo                       4-2-12-2-0 = 20              1.50        0.40 

Havana Beat                       Teofilo/Desert Prince                        1-2-5-2-0 = 10                1.22        0.20

Great Hall                           Halling/Machiavellian                        7-0-6-4-1 = 18                1.25        0.44

Secret Number                    Raven’s Pass/Alleged                      5-4-10-0-1 = 20               2.33        0.60 

London Bridge                     Arch/Indian Ridge                            1-11-13-1-0 = 26             2.47        0.46

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

While the David Wachman-trained Galileo Rock hasn’t won a race this season he has been placed in the Derby and its Irish equivalent. The Galileo colt is out of a Groom Dancer mare and should have no problem with the St Leger trip, with eight points in the stamina wing of his profile and a negative centre of distribution (CD). In the absence of Ruler Of The World and Trading Leather he carries the standard for classic middle-distance form to the race.

John Gosden’s Excess Knowledge, who heads our table for stamina aptitude, has been asked to run at inadequate trips to date and just failed to catch Cap O’Rushes in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. The son of German stallion Monsun will relish stepping up to this. Cap O’Rushes could finish only sixth of seven in the Great Voltigeur and may have been unsuited by the fast going at York. By Derby hero New Approach out of a Shirley Heights mare he also ought to stay.

Libertarian was a good winner of the Dante when beating Trading Leather and finished runner-up in the Derby, but was very disappointing at the Curragh when struggling a long way out. Another by New Approach (himself a son of Galileo) with strong dam side stamina influences through the Darshaan-Shirley Heights line. Only Excess Knowledge heads him in our stamina aptitude table.

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Queen’s Vase winner Leading Light is unbeaten this season. The Montjeu colt, out of a Gone West mare (coincidently the two latest stallions to be handed chef-de-race status, see http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/montjeu.htm  and http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/gone_west.htm), will have no trouble at this trip, with no fewer than 13 points in the stamina wing of his profile.

Leading Light’s stablemate Foundry was an eye-catching runner-up on only his second racecourse appearance to Telescope in the Great Voltigeur, with Godolphin’s Secret Number half-a-length away in third in what appeared to be a strong renewal. The York race is a pretty good trial for the St Leger. Reference Point succeeded in landing the double in 1987 and since then four others have followed suit – Bob’s Return, Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno – while another seven – Snurge, Mutafaweq, Silver Patriarch, Bollin Eric, Brian Boru, Mastery and Encke – were no worse than fourth in the Voltigeur before following up in the final classic.

Foundry was touted for the Derby early this season and has an ideal Dosage profile for that race. Despite notable failures, Derby types can also step up to effect in this, with many past winners and placed horses having a DI of about 1. However, the ideal DI for this race would be below 1, given a suitable representation from this category, which is certainly the case in this year’s race.

Eye Of The Storm, another from Ballydoyle, hadn’t been seen out since April when splitting Sugar Boy and Galileo Rock in the Sandown Classic trial, until finishing runner-up in a Listed race against older horses on Monday at Galway. He is bred for stamina and is one of several in the race that has Shirley Heights as a prepotent stamina influence on the dam side. The colt is unexposed and has been tried at inadequate distances to date. Unfortunately the St Leger is likely to come too soon for him, but the colt would hold strong chances if lining up.

Feel Like Dancing won his most recent race at Newmarket for trainer John Gosden and owner/breeder Lady Bamford. The colt is bred on the same Galileo/Darshaan cross as Telescope, out of different mares, he features prominently in our table and will not fail through lack of stamina.

The Brian Meehan-trained Great Hall won last time out at Haydock over 14 furlongs in handicap company. By Halling out of a Machiavellian mare, he is not without chances, but others make more appeal in this.

The Ralph Beckett-trained Talent is the only filly that could still make the line up. We marked her out earlier in the season as a decent prospect at a mile-and-a-half. She was staying on strongly when taking the Oaks and should give herself chances of getting the trip here with a typical DI for this race, if putting her Irish Oaks flop behind her. She would become the first Oaks winner to beat the colts in the St Leger since User Friendly in 1992.

Speed/stamina balance

The average DI for the past 19 winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for the race below 1.

Dosage of previous St Leger winners

Year     Horse                                       DI                     CD

2012     Encke                                      1.05                  0.20

2011     Masked Marvel                          0.68                  -0.13

2010     Arctic Cosmos                          1.77                  0.50

2009     Mastery                                    1.00                  0.00

2008     Conduit                                     0.76                  -0.09

2007     Lucarno                                    1.34                  0.26

2006     Sixties Icon                               1.00                  0.23

2005     Scorpion                                   1.00                  0.19

2004     Rule Of Law                              2.11                  0.17

2003     Brian Boru                                1.05                  0.18

2002     Bollin Eric                                 1.00                  0.14

2001     Milan                                        0.77                  -0.05

2000     Millenary                                   0.83                  0.02

1999     Mutafaweq                                1.07                  0.14

1998     Nedawi                                     0.92                  0.09

1997     Silver Patriarch                          1.00                  0.03

1996     Shantou                                    1.67                  0.38

1995     Classic Cliché                           0.83                  0.00

1994     Moonax                                    0.73                  -0.04

                                                            ____

Average Dosage index            =          1.08

Shortlist

With regard to stamina suitability those in the top half of our table are best placed: Excess Knowledge (DI 0.49), Libertarian (0.65), Feel Like Dancing (0.67), Eye Of The Storm (0.71), Galileo Rock (0.78), Cap O’Rushes (0.87), Talent (0.90), Leading Light (0.96), and Foundry (1.0).

Conclusion

Of these, Foundry probably has the most scope for improvement having raced just twice, but his stablemate Eye Of The Storm is also unexposed and is bred for a test of stamina, while the Aidan O’Brien-trained Leading Light has done nothing wrong and indeed everything right in landing the Queen’s Vase and remaining undefeated this season. All three are similarly rated and the one who is improving most at this stage of the season will win the day from the Ballydoyle trio. Excess Knowledge has been run at inadequate trips and is fully entitled to make his presence felt here, as is Galileo Rock, while the filly Talent should not be dismissed. With not much to choose between them otherwise we look to the top of our stamina aptitude table. In the absence of Eye Of The Storm Excess Knowledge is taken to see off a strong Ballydoyle challenge, with Galileo Rock and Talent the next best.

Verdict:

1)     Excess Knowledge

2)     Foundry/Leading Light

3)     Galileo Rock

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

c S E Miller 2013

Royal Ascot, Gold Cup preview

Royal Ascot, Gold Cup preview

The four-year-olds Estimate and Last Train get chance to shine at a trip made for them

Estimate to pass endurance test

Retired US jockey and trainer, Danny Perlsweig, once noted that a horse can get any distance if you give it enough time! This grasps an essential truth that the perceived attributes of speed and stamina are far from mutually exclusive and in fact should rather be seen as a form or expression of the same thing, that of endurance under stress (with stress defined as sustained pace).

While few thoroughbreds genuinely stay 20 furlongs, the horse able to sustain the greatest overall pace at the distance will win.

It is rare for a horse to be able to give optimum performance when asked to endure extreme distance at the sort of pace required for a Group 1. Something invariably has to give. Consequently it is common for horses that do manage to get the balance about right to win the race more than once (Yeats, Royal Rebel, Kayf Tara, Drum Taps, Sadeem, Gildoran, Ardross, Le Moss and Sagaro have all won this race at least twice since the mid-1970s).

The table includes the 19 still in this year’s renewal [Pale Mimosa now a non-runner]. As usual it is organised with those showing the greatest stamina potential at the top, ranked in order of Dosage index (DI). Note that the top eight have negative centres of distribution (CD), indicating pronounced stamina aptitude.

2013 Ascot Gold Cup contenders

Horse                                  sire/dam sire                                   Profile                DI            CD

Estimate                              Monsun/Darshaan                             0-0-11-9-6 = 26    0.27        -0.81

High Jinx                              High Chaparral/Surumu                      2-0-7-5-2 = 16      0.52        -0.31

Colour Vision                        Rainbow Quest/Monsun                     8-0-20-14-4 = 46 0.64        -0.13

Times Up                             Olden Times/Ile De Bourbon               2-0-7-3-2 = 14      0.65        -0.21

Last Train                             Rail Link/Rainbow Quest                    2-2-13-7-2 = 26    0.68        -0.19

Pale Mimosa                        Singspiel/Danehill                              4-2-20-7-3 = 36    0.80        -0.08

Repeater                              Montjeu/Mark Of Esteem                   2-1-10-4-1 = 18    0.80        -0.06

Saddler’s Rock                     Sadler’s Wells/Groom Dancer            7-1-22-8-4 = 42    0.83        -0.02

Altano                                  Galileo/Lando                                   3-0-7-4-0 = 14      0.87        0.14

Vadamar                              Dalakhani/Unfuwain                           3-0-6-1-2 = 12      1.00        0.08

Model Pupil                          Sinndar/Sadler’s Wells                       4-3-14-7-0 = 28    1.00        0.14 

Earl Of Tinsdal                      Black Sam Bellamy/Dashing Blade     5-0-10-4-1 = 20    1.00        0.20

Number Theory                     Halling/Barathea                                5-0-8-4-1 = 18      1.00        0.22

El Salvador                           Galileo/Kris                                       6-0-10-5-1 = 22    1.00        0.23

Rite Of Passage                   Giant’s Causeway/Kris S                    3-2-33-1-1 = 40    1.16        0.13 

Simenon                              Marju/Alzao                                       4-1-8-3-0 = 16      1.29        0.38

Top Trip                               Dubai Destination/Kahyasi                  7-1-11-5-0 = 24    1.29        0.42

Biographer                           Montjeu/Seeking The Gold                  7-4-15-4-0 = 30    1.61        0.47

Aaim To Prosper                  Val Royal/Ahonoora                            7-4-5-2-0 = 18      3.00        0.89

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

The Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Colour Vision saw off Opinion Poll and Saddler’s Rock to land this last year. The five-year-old gelding’s sire and damsire, Rainbow Quest and Monsun, are Classic/Solid chefs-de-race (chiefs of breed) and consequently the gelding has a particularly high concentration of 18 points in the stamina wing of his profile putting him on a prime DI of 0.64 for victory here, as highlighted in last year’s column on this race. However, he has proved unsuccessful in five outings since winning this.

Times Up got the better of High Jinx by a neck in last season’s Doncaster Cup and was earlier successful against the same opponent in York’s Lonsdale Cup. On respective DIs of 0.65 and 0.52 they flank Colour Vision in a sweet spot in our table.

The John Oxx trained five-year-old entire Saddler’s Rock had to narrowly give best to the Godolphin pair in this last season. Although he reversed form with Colour Vision at Goodwood at the beginning of August he has not made the frame in six subsequent starts. But he relishes a test of stamina and is useful.

Rite Of Passage, the winner of the 2010 Gold Cup has raced only twice since that victory winning the Long Distance Cup at Ascot last October. He clearly stays very well, even better than the Dosage suggests. The nine-year-old gelding has won four of his five starts on the Flat, finding only Fame And Glory too good. He goes for this without a prep.

Her Majesty the Queen’s Monsun filly Estimate appears at the head of our table for stamina aptitude. The Sagaro Stakes winner is out of the Darshaan mare Ebaziya and consequently a half-sister to the entire Enzeli, who won this in 1999. She is yet to race beyond two miles, but the four-year-old filly is likely to excel at this extended trip with a Dosage reading for extreme stamina potential. Sir Michael Stoute is a previous winner of this race with Shangamuzo in 1978. The last filly to win the Gold Cup was Indian Queen when landing odds of 25/1 in 1991.

Pale Mimosa is another four-year-old filly that will not only stay the distance but improve for stepping up in trip. Dermot Weld’s charge, by Singspiel, is a relatively unexposed winner of three of her five appearances. The top half of her pedigree is key to her chances here.

The Willie Mullins-trained Simenon was a dual Royal Ascot winner last year and ran a terrific race when fourth under top weight in the Chester Cup last time out. The six-year-old gelding appears to come into his own at trips above two miles, but on a pure Dosage reading others are preferred at this level.

The David Lanigan-trained Biographer is a son of Montjeu out of a Seeking The Gold mare. The colt is a progressive middle-distance to staying sort and may improve again for stepping up in trip.

Andreas Wohler intends to run the seven-year-old gelding Altano, who may be joined by dual Group 1 winning stablemate Earl Of Tinsdal, providing there is enough give for this soft ground specialist. Both have points in the stamina wing of their Dosage profiles.

Top Trip is expected to represent trainer Francois Doumen. The colt has won at 11 furlongs at Group 2 level in France and was beaten a nose in the Yorkshire Cup last time out. By Dubai Destination out of a Kahyasi mare, a mixture of speed and stamina influences are evident in his profile.

France is also represented by Andre Fabre’s Last Train and Mikel Delzangles Vadamar. Last Train is an exciting Group winning colt at two miles, by Arc winner Rail Link, with another Arc winner in Rainbow Quest as his dam sire. The Dosage gives him good chances of improving again when tried at this trip. Vadamar is a five-year-old Group 2 winning gelding by Dalakhani who won a conditions race last time out. He should stay beyond middle distances.

Ballydoyle’s Imperial Monarch has been denied his chance of appearing here, but his stablemate El Salvador could take part. By Galileo out of a Kris mare the colt has won at 13 furlongs on heavy going, but others are preferred in this.

The Sir Mark Prescott-trained Repeater, by Montjeu out of a Mark Of Esteem mare, should also stay well enough in theory but may be out of his depth in terms of class.

Negative centre of distribution

If (in crude terms) a Dosage index of 1.0 and a centre of distribution of zero is the blueprint for a Derby contender, for a potential Ascot Gold Cup winner we are looking for a DI of less than 1 and ideally a negative CD (the last couple of winners are ideal examples of what we should be looking for). Past winners of the race conforming to this ideal are: Colour Vision (DI 0.64, CD -0.13), Fame And Glory (0.65, -0.25), Papineau (0.88, -0.04), Enzeli (0.54, -0.45), Celeric (0.00, -1.44), Double Trigger (0.21, -1.40) and Arcadian Heights (0.90, -0.05) – while Yeats (0.89, +0.08), Kayf Tara (0.90, +0.08) and Classic Cliché (0.84, 0.00) qualify in terms of DI and are very close to qualifying in respect of CD.

Dosage of previous winners

Year                 horse                           DI         CD

2012                       Colour Vision                       0.64        -0.13

2011                       Fame And Glory                   0.65        -0.25

2010                       Rite Of Passage                  1.16        0.13

2009                       Yeats                                      0.89        0.08

2008                       Yeats                                      0.89        0.08

2007                       Yeats                                      0.89        0.08

2006                       Yeats                                      0.89        0.08

2005                       Westerner                             1.53        0.25

2004                       Papineau                              0.88        -0.04

Average                                                                                0.93

Shortlist

There are eight in this year’s race with negative CDs and a DI of below 1: Estimate (DI 0.27, CD -0.81), High Jinx (0.52, -0.31), Colour Vision (0.64, -0.13), Times Up (0.65, -0.21), Last Train (0.68, -0.19), Pale Mimosa    (0.80, -0.08), Repeater (0.80, -0.06) and Saddler’s Rock (0.83, -0.02), with others such as Altano close to qualifying.

We shouldn’t ignore Estimate’s reading for pronounced stamina potential and consequently side with the Queen’s filly. Colour Vision and Rite Of Passage have obvious chances, as past winners of this, if capturing past form, as does Saddler’s Rock. Times Up and High Jinx flank Colour Vision in a sweet spot in our table, Pale Mimosa is unexposed and will stay the trip well and Last Train is an exciting contender who should be right there when push comes to shove, at a big price for place backers.

Verdict

1)     Estimate                      

2)     Last Train         

3)     Saddler’s Rock

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com

and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

c S E Miller 2013

Derby Preview 2013

World to rule at Derby trip

WITH THE Investec Derby and Oaks fast approaching and with a brilliant 2,000 Guineas winner dominating the Epsom market, we look to the Dosage system to decide if Dawn Approach is the good thing many believe him to be.

Contenders for the Derby and Oaks, as a rule of thumb, require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of around 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part.

The accompanying table shows the 15 left in the Derby at Monday’s confirmation stage. It is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI.

2013 Derby contenders

Colt                        Sire/dam sire                         Profile                         DI            CD

Libertarian              New Approach/Darshaan           1-1-7-3-2 = 14                0.65        -0.29

Mirsaale                Sir Percy/Sadler’s Wells            3-1-9-6-1 = 20                0.74        -0.05

Galileo Rock          Galileo/Groom Dancer               5-0-11-4-4 = 24               0.78        -0.08

Festive Cheer         Montjeu/Pembroke                    3-0-10-5-0 = 18               0.80        0.06

Ocovango               Monsun/Gone West                  5-1-16-8-0 = 30               0.87        0.10

First Cornerstone    Hurricane Run/Diesis                 4-0-8-3-1 = 16                1.00        0.19

Magician                Galileo/Mozart                          3-1-8-4-0 = 16                 1.00        0.19

Ruler Of The World  Galileo/Kingmambo                   9-0-21-8-0 = 38               1.05        0.26 

Trading Leather       Teofilo/Sinndar                          1-3-7-3-0 = 14                 1.15        0.14

Chopin                   Santiago/Galileo                        3-1-7-2-1 = 14                 1.15        0.21

Mars                      Galileo/Danehill                         5-2-13-4-0 = 24               1.29        0.33

Flying The Flag       Galileo/Pivotal                           3-4-9-4-0 = 20                 1.35        0.30

Battle Of Marengo    Galileo/Green Desert                8-3-13-4-0 = 28                1.67        0.54

Dawn Approach       New Approach/Phone Trick        2-4-8-2-0 = 16                 1.67        0.38

Ocean Applause      Royal Applause/Magic Ring       2-2-6-0-0 = 10                  2.33        0.60

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Stamina doubts

The seven-from-seven unbeaten 2,000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach was an irresistible choice for the spring classic. But while the colt’s sire New Approach had more than enough stamina for the Derby on a DI of 0.89 (i.e. below 1.0), the chances of Dawn Approach are much less clear cut on a DI of 1.67, which would not be a typical mark for a Derby winner. In fact only the very atypical Sea The Stars had a higher DI of the past 12 winners of the race (see table). We must take on board that he is a relaxed individual, which could help him to eke out the trip, but the Dosage suggests we should look elsewhere for our winner. While 2,000 Guineas winner Camelot was rated a good thing in this column last year, I’m very comfortable in opposing this season’s 2,000 Guineas winner to follow up.

While Dawn Approach appears toward the bottom of our table (indicating aptitude for speed over stamina), the other New Approach colt in the field Libertarian features at the top, as this son of New Approach is out of a Darshaan mare. Libertarian can be expected to have more than enough stamina for this and will surely come into his own later in the season in the St Leger. The colt made use of his stamina in winning the Dante and it should be said that seven Dante winners have gone on to win the Derby since 1980 and four in the past nine years. He will not fail for stamina but may be wanting for overall class.

Team Ballydoyle

Aidan O’Brien has a typically powerful hand. The Galileo colt Magician improved for stepping up to 10 furlongs at Chester and will be perfectly suited to 12 furlongs, on a DI of 1.0, but the Derby may come too soon for Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas winner. Magician’s stablemate, Ruler Of The World, also by Galileo and beautifully bred out of the Kingmambo mare Love Me True, by Duke Of Marmalade, on a DI of 1.05, will also be perfectly suited to the trip. He has eight stamina points in his profile and this should prove his optimum trip. Both Ruler Of The World and Magician occupy a sweet spot in our table.

Battle Of Marengo is a grand sort, winning five of his six appearances, three at Group level. He has sharper influences than some of these through Green Desert on his dam side and has the same headline DI of 1.67 as Dawn Approach, although his four stamina points against Dawn Approach’s two, may give the son of Galileo the edge at this trip.

Another Galileo colt from Ballydoyle, Mars, could also develop into a leading middle distance performer for the yard this season, on a DI of 1.29.

French challenge

The Andre Fabre-trained Ocovango is very well placed in our table, on a DI of 0.87. His sire Monsun is a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (chief of breed, see http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/monsun.htm) and consequently an influence for middle distance stamina. Ocovango’s dam sire Gone West is also showing prepotent influence (and is a strong candidate for the next tranche of chef-de-race sires). The unbeaten Ocovango looks a colt of some quality and will be difficult to keep out of the frame at this distance.

The Derby takes on a convincing international tone with the inclusion of the Andreas Wohler-trained Chopin, supplemented at a cost of £75,000. He’s set to become the first German-trained runner in the race.

Speed/stamina balance

The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a DI of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. The average DI for the past 12 winners is only a little higher at 1.16 and those in a band between about DI 0.8 and 1.4 appear best suited to the requirements of the race (see table).

Dosage of previous Derby winners

Year      Colt                               DI

2012     Camelot                        0.94

2011     Pour Moi                       0.78

2010     Workforce                     1.44

2009     Sea The Stars              3.00

2008     New Approach             0.89

2007     Authorized*                   0.86*     (from 1.00)    

2006     Sir Percy                       0.54

2005     Motivator                       1.43

2004     North Light*                   1.13*     (from 1.60)

2003     Kris Kin*                        1.05*     (from 1.34)

2002     High Chaparral              0.82

2001     Galileo                           1.11     

Average                                      1.16

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

Those who matched this requirement, of the past 12 winners are: Camelot (DI 0.94), Pour Moi (0.78), Workforce (1.44), New Approach (0.89), Authorized (0.86), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82) and Galileo (1.11). The exceptional Sea The Stars is the outlier here – a colt with a DI of 3 would not normally be expected to last the Derby trip.

Shortlist

The best matches this year are: Ocovango (DI 0.87), First Cornerstone (1.0), Magician (1.00), Ruler Of The World (1.05), Trading Leather (1.15), Chopin (1.15) and Mars (1.29).

Of these, those with the best chances are Ocovango, Magician, Ruler Of The World, Mars and possibly Chopin. We might also add Battle Of Marengo to this list as he is shaping well as a middle distance performer and has always been earmarked for this race by his trainer.

RULER OF THE WORLD is taken to hold off the challenge of his stablemates and Ocovango. Magician is also expected to be in the shake up if recovered from his exertions in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and allowed to take his chance. The likely favourite Dawn Approach is expected to travel well for a long way before emptying.

Verdict

1)     Ruler Of The World

2)     Ocovango

3)     Magician (Mars alternative)

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

c S E Miller 2013