Derby Preview 2013

World to rule at Derby trip

WITH THE Investec Derby and Oaks fast approaching and with a brilliant 2,000 Guineas winner dominating the Epsom market, we look to the Dosage system to decide if Dawn Approach is the good thing many believe him to be.

Contenders for the Derby and Oaks, as a rule of thumb, require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of around 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part.

The accompanying table shows the 15 left in the Derby at Monday’s confirmation stage. It is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI.

2013 Derby contenders

Colt                        Sire/dam sire                         Profile                         DI            CD

Libertarian              New Approach/Darshaan           1-1-7-3-2 = 14                0.65        -0.29

Mirsaale                Sir Percy/Sadler’s Wells            3-1-9-6-1 = 20                0.74        -0.05

Galileo Rock          Galileo/Groom Dancer               5-0-11-4-4 = 24               0.78        -0.08

Festive Cheer         Montjeu/Pembroke                    3-0-10-5-0 = 18               0.80        0.06

Ocovango               Monsun/Gone West                  5-1-16-8-0 = 30               0.87        0.10

First Cornerstone    Hurricane Run/Diesis                 4-0-8-3-1 = 16                1.00        0.19

Magician                Galileo/Mozart                          3-1-8-4-0 = 16                 1.00        0.19

Ruler Of The World  Galileo/Kingmambo                   9-0-21-8-0 = 38               1.05        0.26 

Trading Leather       Teofilo/Sinndar                          1-3-7-3-0 = 14                 1.15        0.14

Chopin                   Santiago/Galileo                        3-1-7-2-1 = 14                 1.15        0.21

Mars                      Galileo/Danehill                         5-2-13-4-0 = 24               1.29        0.33

Flying The Flag       Galileo/Pivotal                           3-4-9-4-0 = 20                 1.35        0.30

Battle Of Marengo    Galileo/Green Desert                8-3-13-4-0 = 28                1.67        0.54

Dawn Approach       New Approach/Phone Trick        2-4-8-2-0 = 16                 1.67        0.38

Ocean Applause      Royal Applause/Magic Ring       2-2-6-0-0 = 10                  2.33        0.60

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Stamina doubts

The seven-from-seven unbeaten 2,000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach was an irresistible choice for the spring classic. But while the colt’s sire New Approach had more than enough stamina for the Derby on a DI of 0.89 (i.e. below 1.0), the chances of Dawn Approach are much less clear cut on a DI of 1.67, which would not be a typical mark for a Derby winner. In fact only the very atypical Sea The Stars had a higher DI of the past 12 winners of the race (see table). We must take on board that he is a relaxed individual, which could help him to eke out the trip, but the Dosage suggests we should look elsewhere for our winner. While 2,000 Guineas winner Camelot was rated a good thing in this column last year, I’m very comfortable in opposing this season’s 2,000 Guineas winner to follow up.

While Dawn Approach appears toward the bottom of our table (indicating aptitude for speed over stamina), the other New Approach colt in the field Libertarian features at the top, as this son of New Approach is out of a Darshaan mare. Libertarian can be expected to have more than enough stamina for this and will surely come into his own later in the season in the St Leger. The colt made use of his stamina in winning the Dante and it should be said that seven Dante winners have gone on to win the Derby since 1980 and four in the past nine years. He will not fail for stamina but may be wanting for overall class.

Team Ballydoyle

Aidan O’Brien has a typically powerful hand. The Galileo colt Magician improved for stepping up to 10 furlongs at Chester and will be perfectly suited to 12 furlongs, on a DI of 1.0, but the Derby may come too soon for Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas winner. Magician’s stablemate, Ruler Of The World, also by Galileo and beautifully bred out of the Kingmambo mare Love Me True, by Duke Of Marmalade, on a DI of 1.05, will also be perfectly suited to the trip. He has eight stamina points in his profile and this should prove his optimum trip. Both Ruler Of The World and Magician occupy a sweet spot in our table.

Battle Of Marengo is a grand sort, winning five of his six appearances, three at Group level. He has sharper influences than some of these through Green Desert on his dam side and has the same headline DI of 1.67 as Dawn Approach, although his four stamina points against Dawn Approach’s two, may give the son of Galileo the edge at this trip.

Another Galileo colt from Ballydoyle, Mars, could also develop into a leading middle distance performer for the yard this season, on a DI of 1.29.

French challenge

The Andre Fabre-trained Ocovango is very well placed in our table, on a DI of 0.87. His sire Monsun is a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (chief of breed, see http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/monsun.htm) and consequently an influence for middle distance stamina. Ocovango’s dam sire Gone West is also showing prepotent influence (and is a strong candidate for the next tranche of chef-de-race sires). The unbeaten Ocovango looks a colt of some quality and will be difficult to keep out of the frame at this distance.

The Derby takes on a convincing international tone with the inclusion of the Andreas Wohler-trained Chopin, supplemented at a cost of £75,000. He’s set to become the first German-trained runner in the race.

Speed/stamina balance

The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a DI of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. The average DI for the past 12 winners is only a little higher at 1.16 and those in a band between about DI 0.8 and 1.4 appear best suited to the requirements of the race (see table).

Dosage of previous Derby winners

Year      Colt                               DI

2012     Camelot                        0.94

2011     Pour Moi                       0.78

2010     Workforce                     1.44

2009     Sea The Stars              3.00

2008     New Approach             0.89

2007     Authorized*                   0.86*     (from 1.00)    

2006     Sir Percy                       0.54

2005     Motivator                       1.43

2004     North Light*                   1.13*     (from 1.60)

2003     Kris Kin*                        1.05*     (from 1.34)

2002     High Chaparral              0.82

2001     Galileo                           1.11     

Average                                      1.16

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

Those who matched this requirement, of the past 12 winners are: Camelot (DI 0.94), Pour Moi (0.78), Workforce (1.44), New Approach (0.89), Authorized (0.86), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82) and Galileo (1.11). The exceptional Sea The Stars is the outlier here – a colt with a DI of 3 would not normally be expected to last the Derby trip.

Shortlist

The best matches this year are: Ocovango (DI 0.87), First Cornerstone (1.0), Magician (1.00), Ruler Of The World (1.05), Trading Leather (1.15), Chopin (1.15) and Mars (1.29).

Of these, those with the best chances are Ocovango, Magician, Ruler Of The World, Mars and possibly Chopin. We might also add Battle Of Marengo to this list as he is shaping well as a middle distance performer and has always been earmarked for this race by his trainer.

RULER OF THE WORLD is taken to hold off the challenge of his stablemates and Ocovango. Magician is also expected to be in the shake up if recovered from his exertions in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and allowed to take his chance. The likely favourite Dawn Approach is expected to travel well for a long way before emptying.

Verdict

1)     Ruler Of The World

2)     Ocovango

3)     Magician (Mars alternative)

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

c S E Miller 2013