Oaks Preview 2013

Moth to fly in the face of Beckett team

2013 Oaks contenders

Filly                         Sire/dam sire                        Profile                      DI            CD

Gertrude Versed       Manduro/Sugar Mill                  2-0-11-5-0 = 18          0.71        -0.05

The Lark                  Pivotal/In The Wings                2-1-16-6-1 = 26           0.73        -0.12

Talent                     New Approach/Peintre Celebre  3-0-13-4-0 = 20           0.90         0.10

Miss You Too          Montjeu/Peintre Celebre            3-1-17-5-0 = 26          0.93         0.08

Say                        Galileo/Dynaformer                   4-0-16-4-0 = 24          1.00          0.17 

Liber Nauticus         Azamour/Daylami                     3-0-8-3-0 = 14            1.00          0.21

Secret Gesture        Galileo/Danehill                        4-2-14-4-0 = 24          1.18          0.25

Moth                       Galileo/Seattle Slew                 8-0-16-4-0 = 28          1.33          0.43

Madame Defarge      Motivator/Zafonic                      4-0-6-2-0 = 12            1.40         0.50

Banoffee                  Hurricane Run/Anabaa              3-2-7-2-0 = 14            1.55        0.43

Roz                         Teofilo/Anabaa                         3-3-8-2-0 = 16            1.67        0.44

Snow Queen            Danehill Dancer/Royal Academy10-9-11-4-0 = 34         2.58        0.74

Key to Profile: See footnote to Derby.

Of the 12 who could still line up in Friday’s Investec Oaks, the Dosage system marks out Talent (DI 0.90), Miss You Too (0.93), Say (1.0), Liber Nauticus (1.0), Secret Gesture (1.18) and Moth (1.33) as the best suited to 12 furlongs.

The Ralph Beckett-trained Talent looks a decent prospect at 12 furlongs and 10-length Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Secret Gesture, also trained by Beckett, will be well suited to the trip. The pair should make a bold bid to emulate the yard’s success with Look Here in this race in 2008.

Aidan O’Brien trains Say, Moth and Snow Queen (who finished down the field in Sunday’s Irish 1,000 Guineas and will miss this). The Galileo filly Say won her maiden by nine lengths when stepped up to this trip. Moth, also by Galileo out of a Seattle Slew mare, was beaten a couple of lengths in the 1,000 Guineas, but was finishing to telling effect. She should get 12 furlongs (on a DI of 1.33) and her turn of foot could prove decisive at this level.

Sir Michael Stoute will be bidding to add to his two Oaks successes (Fair Salinia and Unite) with the unbeaten albeit unexposed Liber Nauticus. The Azamour filly, out of a Daylami mare, should improve again for stepping up in trip here.

The John Gosden-trained Manduro filly Gertrude Versed will certainly get the trip but may be just short of the required class. Hughie Morrison’s Banoffee, who has been supplemented for this, got the better of Gertrude Versed in the Cheshire Oaks, quickening from the rear and staying on powerfully. She will also have no problem with the trip and will stay even better than her headline Dosage number suggests due to the as yet unrecognised prepotent stamina influence of Montjeu in her tail-male line.

Michael Bell’s Madame Defarge is interesting, by Derby winner Motivator, but others are more likely to fully relish the 12 furlongs. Bell also has The Lark in this who will certainly stay.

The Galileo fillies Moth and Secret Gesture are the two to concentrate on, with Banoffee, Talent and Say looking the best of the each-way value. MOTH is taken to fly in the face of a strong Beckett team.

Verdict

1)     Moth

2)     Secret Gesture

3)     Banoffee

4)     Talent

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

c S E Miller 2013