Dawn Approach has the right stuff for Guineas

Dawn Approach is well suited to the balance of speed and stamina required for the Rowley Mile and is taken to outpoint likely middle-distance performer Toronado

Dawn Approach has the right stuff for Guineas

AS A NEW generation of three-year-olds prepares to lock horns over Newmarket’s Rowley Mile, the 2,000 Guineas poses the usual conundrums of brimming potential against often scant form. Where the form is inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to identify those with the right blend of speed and stamina for the race.

The table shows 12 of the 14 left in at the confirmation stage (Garswood and Dont Bother Me are excluded as they have insufficient points for an accurate reading). In crude terms those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI). Those with the best chances will have an optimum blend of speed and stamina.

2,000 Guineas contenders

Horse                            Sire/damsire                           profile                         DI        CD          

Toronado                        High Chaparral/Grand Slam        3-1-9-4-1 = 18                      0.89        0.06

Kyllachy Rise                 Kyllachy/Barathea                     3-0-6-3-0 = 12                      1.00        0.25

Mars                              Galileo/Danehill                         5-2-13-4-0 = 24                    1.29        0.33

Cristoforo Colombo          Henrythenavigator/Johannesburg 7-3-12-6-0 = 28                    1.33        0.39

Correspondent                Exceed And Excel/Efisio            3-2-11-2-0 = 18                    1.40        0.33

George Vancouver           Henrythenavigator/Danzig           7-6-23-6-0 = 42                    1.40        0.33

Van Der Neer                  Dutch Art/King Charlemagne      2-1-8-1-0 = 12                      1.40        0.33

Moohaajim                     Cape Cross/Kingmambo             5-4-15-4-0 = 28                    1.43        0.36

Dawn Approach              New Approach/Phone Trick         2-4-8-2-0 = 16                      1.67        0.38

Leitir Mor                       Holy Roman Emperor/Galileo       4-6-14-2-0 = 26                    1.89        0.46 

Lines Of Battle               War Front/Arch                           4-6-17-0-1 = 28                    1.95        0.43 

Glory Awaits                  Choisir/Foxhound                        2-3-7-0-0 = 12                      2.43        0.58

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Worthy favourite

The six-from-six unbeaten dual Group 1 winner Dawn Approach, by New Approach out of a Phone Trick mare, holds strong claims and a favourite’s chance for his handler Jim Bolger. With a DI of 1.67 the colt is well placed in terms of typical previous winners of the race. Leitir Mor will take up pacemaker duties.

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Cristoforo Colombo, one of four possible starters for the yard, has only run at 6 furlongs last term, winning on his debut and finishing runner-up in a Group 2 at the Curragh. Third to Dawn Approach in the Coventry, fell when short of room in the Phoenix Stakes and only fourth to Reckless Abandon and Moohaajim in the Middle Park. The Henrythenavigator colt should be suited by a mile as a three-year-old, but others are preferred here.

The Galileo colt Mars won an 11-runner maiden last term at Dundalk and could develop into a leading performer for Ballydoyle, although he will likely improve for stepping up in trip.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner George Vancouver was placed third in the Dewhurst behind Dawn Approach. The Henrythenavigator colt is suited by a mile and with a DI of 1.4 is likely to get a bit further.

If the UAE Derby winner Lines Of Battle turns out here rather than the Kentucky Derby the War Front colt looks interesting. He has just the sort of DI you would expect to see in this race, but is highly tried, but patchy form at top level.

Hannon pair

Richard Hannon’s unbeaten High Chaparral colt and Group 2 winner Toronado was a fine winner of the Craven Stakes on his reappearance this season from his stablemate Havana Gold, replicating his win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last term, from the front. He moved to second favourite for the Guineas on the back of his Craven performance, but with a Dosage index of 0.89 he looks certain to improve for middle distances.

The prepotent stamina influences evident in the Sadler’s Wells  tail-male line (through High Chaparral) in addition to Shirley Heights through Darshaan in the top half of Toronado’s pedigree (dam side of High Chaparral’s) gives him what he needs in terms of stamina attributes for 10 and 12 furlongs. The influence of Toronado’s dam sire Grand Slam is not prepotent and therefore should be overridden by those contributing stallions, in terms of stamina aptitude, in the top half of Toronado’s pedigree.

The colt is consequently worth backing for the Derby at available odds ahead of an expected good showing in the Guineas (at a trip below his optimum).

Toronado’s stablemate Van Der Neer runner-up in the Racing Post Trophy last season also takes his chance. The Dutch Art colt should be well suited to a mile.

Listed 5 furlong winner Garswood justified favouritism on his reappearance to land the European Free Handicap for trainer Richard Fahey in good style. The Dutch Art colt, out of a Kyllachy mare, should be effective at around a mile as a three-year-old.

The Brian Meehan-trained Correspondent was well beaten on his reappearance behind Olympic Glory at Newbury. Dont Bother Me won a Leopardstown maiden last season and has finished runner-up in Ireland at Listed level on his two appearances this term for his handler Niall Moran.

The unexposed Kyllachy Rise, a runner-up in a Newbury maiden this season, is an interesting possible contender for Sir Henry Cecil.

Sweet spot

The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 11 2,000 Guineas winners is 1.73 (see table), but those with a slightly higher DI than the average (up to about DI 2) seem the ideal type for the race. Of the past 11 winners those that conform to this measure are: Makfi (DI 2.11), Henrythenavigator (1.92), Cockney Rebel (1.91), George Washington (1.67), Haafhd (2.33) and Rock Of Gibraltar (2.16). Frankel and Camelot were atypical winners on identical DIs of 0.94 (indicating greater stamina potential than is usually associated with this race). It is a mark of the ability of that pair rather than stamina aptitude that enabled them to win the spring classic.

Year     Colt                              DI

2012     Camelot                        0.94

2011     Frankel                         0.94

2010     Makfi                            2.11

2009     Sea The Stars               3.00

2008     Henrythenavigator          1.92

2007     Cockney Rebel              1.91

2006     George Washington       1.67

2005     Footstepsinthesand        1.08*     (from 1.77)

2004     Haafhd                          2.33

2003     Refuse To Bend 1.05

2002     Rock Of Gibraltar           2.16

Average                                   1.73

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

Summary

Of those with a DI of 1.4 or greater George Vancouver, Van Der Neer, Moohaajim, Dawn Approach and Lines Of Battle make our shortlist. We should also not underestimate the chance of Toronado. Despite being likely to show improvement for stepping up in trip, the High Chaparral colt is expected to show up well here and should be backed ahead of Saturday’s race for the Derby. However, Dawn Approach is expected to hold off George Vancouver, Toronado and co for victory.

Prediction:

1)     Dawn Approach

2)     George Vancouver

3)     Toronado

4)     Van Der Neer

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

c S E Miller 2013