Ascot Gold Cup

While not absolutely guaranteed to step up from 16 to 20 furlongs in the Gold Cup it looks worth taking the chance that Leading Light will. Assuming he does the favourite stands out in terms of class. Brown Panther, Estimate and Ernest Hemingway are among those who could outstay him

Leading Light’s class to shine, stamina we take on trust

WHILE FEW thoroughbreds genuinely stay 20 furlongs, the horse able to sustain the greatest overall pace at the distance will win. It is rare for a horse to be able to give optimum performance when asked to endure extreme distance at the sort of pace required for a Group 1. Something invariably has to give. Consequently it is common for horses that do manage to get the balance about right to win the race more than once. Yeats, Royal Rebel, Kayf Tara, Drum Taps, Sadeem, Gildoran, Ardross, Le Moss and Sagaro have all won this race at least twice since the mid-1970s. Estimate aims to add to that number this year.

The table includes the 19 (15 now go to post) still in. As usual it is organised with those showing the greatest stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of Dosage index (DI).

2014 Ascot Gold Cup contenders

Horse                                     sire/dam sire                                       Profile                    DI            CD

Estimate                             Monsun/Darshaan                               0-0-11-9-6 = 26    0.27        -0.81

Oriental Fox                        Lomitas/Big Shuffle                           1-1-10-2-6 = 20    0.54        -0.55

Ernest Hemingway              Galileo/Darshaan                                3-0-11-6-2 = 22    0.63        -0.18 

Brown Panther                     Shirocco/Unfuwain                             3-0-10-5-2 = 20    0.67        -0.15

Eye Of The Storm                Galileo/Shirley Heights                      4-1-15-6-4 = 30    0.71        -0.17 

Pale Mimosa                        Singspiel/Danehill                             4-2-20-7-3 = 36    0.80        -0.08

Missunited                            Golan/Don’t Forget Me                       1-1-5-2-1 = 10      0.82        -0.10

Saddler’s Rock                      Sadler’s Wells/Groom Dancer             7-1-22-8-4 = 42    0.83        -0.02

Ahzeemah                            Dubawi/Entrepreneur                         2-0-7-2-1 = 12      0.85        0.00

Altano                                   Galileo/Lando                                   3-0-7-4-0 = 14      0.87        0.14

Shwaiman                             Authorized/Machiavellian                  6-0-14-7-1 = 28    0.87        0.11

Leading Light                       Montjeu/Gone West                            6-6-25-13-0 = 50 0.96        0.10

El Salvador                           Galileo/Kris                                        6-0-10-5-1 = 22    1.00        0.23

Royal Diamond                     King’s Best/Danehill                           6-3-17-6-0 = 32    1.21        0.28

Havana Beat                         Teofilo/Desert Prince                          1-2-5-2-0 = 10      1.22        0.20

Simenon                               Marju/Alzao                                        4-1-8-3-0 = 16      1.29        0.38

Whiplash Willie                     Phoenix Reach/Nashwan                    3-0-8-0-1 = 12      1.40        0.33

Ralston Road                        Dylan Thomas/Galileo                        4-2-12-2-0 = 20    1.50        0.40

Tac De Boistron                    Take Risks/Sicyos                                 4-1-7-2-0 = 14      1.55        0.50

(Readings for those with an overall point’s total of 10, 12 or 14 are likely to be less accurate than those with higher point’s totals. A lower points total should not imply inferiority – the readings refer to stamina aptitude not ability.) 
Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Renewed rivalry

Last year’s first and second, Estimate and Simenon, look set to renew rivalry. Her Majesty the Queen’s Monsun mare appears at the head of our table for stamina aptitude and duly obliged as the selection for this in last year’s column, stepping up in trip and running to a personal best (RPR of 113). The Gold Cup winner is out of the Darshaan mare Ebaziya and consequently a half-sister to the entire Enzeli, who won this in 1999. Despite winning in resolute fashion last year Estimate is not certain to confirm form with runner-up Simenon, and newcomers to the race look like making it a stronger event than last year. She has not been seen out this season, reportedly suffering from a muscle problem with her right hind, and has a lot on her plate to follow up in this on her seasonal debut. 

Pale Mimosa missed this race last year, but is another five-year-old mare that will not only stay the distance but should improve for stepping up in trip. Dermot Weld’s charge, by Singspiel, is a relatively unexposed winner of three of her eight appearances. She ran better than might be suggested by her finishing position of fourth in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot last season.

The Willie Mullins-trained Simenon was a dual Royal Ascot winner in 2012 and ran a terrific race to be runner-up to Estimate in this last year. The seven-year-old gelding appears to come into his own at trips above two miles and cannot be completely ruled out.

Leading Light

The St Leger winner Leading Light has also won the Queen’s Vase at Ascot over two miles. While finding a step back to a mile-and-a-half in the Arc a stiff task he has made a strong reappearance this season in beating both Royal Diamond and Pale Mimosa in the Vintage Crop Stakes. There is a lot to like about this colt and if he can step up from two-mile winning form will take the beating here. He has a DI of below 1, which will help, and while there are those who will relish this stamina test even more, the Montjeu colt nonetheless represents the class of this year’s race and the 13 points in the stamina wing of his profile will stand him in good stead. He is clear on ratings with a best RPR of 121, achieved this season. A race winning performance in this usually comes out at RPR 120+, but has been below that level in the past two renewals (113 and 118). Simply put, if he stays he wins and he has good chances of staying well enough, with his Dosage figures well in line with other winners of this race. If he is beaten it will take a good one with superior stamina, higher up the table.

Last season’s Long Distance Cup winner over two miles at Ascot, Royal Diamond, is a tough competitor capable of running to consistent RPRs of around 115, but he shouldn’t be good enough to trouble the favourite.

Stamina strengths

Ernest Hemingway has not been asked to run at the right distance for most of his career to date and will come into his own at this trip. He has close form with Royal Diamond at Leopardstown and the Curragh at middle distances and beyond, but this test of stamina should play to the strengths of a son of Galileo out of a Darshaan mare. He appears near the head of our table for stamina aptitude and is an interesting contender. The same can be said for his stablemate Eye Of The Storm (who has no left eye), by Galileo out of a Shirley Heights mare. The colt was placed behind Royal Diamond in Ascot’s Long Distance Cup and his stamina is not in doubt. 

Andreas Wohler’s eight-year-old gelding Altano was fifth in this last year but improved for that to take the Prix du Cadran at Longchamp from Tac De Boistron on soft going. The Marco Botti-trained Tac De Boistron readily exacted revenge in subsequently taking the Prix Royal-Oak in convincing style over two miles in testing conditions. The Take Risks gelding went on to be a convincing winner of Ascot’s Sagaro Stakes this season and later split Gospel Choir and Tiger Cliff in a tight finish in the Yorkshire Cup on good going, conceding a Group 1 penalty. This was a fine effort and any give in the ground would see his chances increase, something which also applies to Altano.

The Henry II Stakes winner Brown Panther is well placed in our table to show up here. By Shirocco out of an Unfuwain mare he could be the cat among the pigeons when push comes to shove in terms of stamina. The Mark Johnston-trained Oriental Fox probably ran his best race in taking the Cesarewitch Trial handicap over 18 furlongs (the furthest he has been) at Newmarket off top weight. Although, on the face of it, he is short of the required class to take on the main players here, his pedigree is laden with stamina and he could improve again for a step up in trip.

Negative centre of distribution

If a DI of 1.0 and a CD of zero is the blueprint for a Derby contender, for a potential Gold Cup winner we are looking for a DI of less than 1 and ideally a negative CD (recent winners are ideal examples of what we should be looking for): Estimate (DI 0.27, CD -0.81), Colour Vision (0.64, -0.13), Fame And Glory (0.65, -0.25), Papineau (0.88, -0.04), Enzeli (0.54, -0.45), Celeric (0.00, -1.44), Double Trigger (0.21, -1.40) and Arcadian Heights (0.90, -0.05) – while Yeats (0.89, +0.08), Kayf Tara (0.90, +0.08) and Classic Cliché (0.84, 0.00) qualify in terms of DI and are very close to qualifying in respect of CD.

Dosage of previous 10 Gold Cup winners

Year                       horse                                     DI         CD

2013                       Estimate                             0.27        -0.81

2012                       Colour Vision                       0.64        -0.13

2011                       Fame And Glory                   0.65        -0.25

2010                       Rite Of Passage                  1.16        0.13

2009                       Yeats                                  0.89        0.08

2008                       Yeats                                  0.89        0.08

2007                       Yeats                                  0.89        0.08

2006                       Yeats                                  0.89        0.08

2005                       Westerner                            1.53        0.25

2004                       Papineau                              0.88        -0.04

Average                                                            0.87                                                       

Shortlist

There are eight in this year’s race with a negative CD and a DI of below 1 and to these we might add Altano (particularly if yielding) and Leading Light who both have DIs below 1 and only slightly positive CDs. Of these Leading Light stands out in terms of class (as did the likes of Fame And Glory, Yeats and Westerner before him). Brown Panther, Estimate, Ernest Hemingway and Altano may give him the most to do on the stamina front.

Verdict

1)     Leading Light

2)     Brown Panther

3)     Estimate

4)     Altano  

Derby: Stamina aptitude

The Derby favourite Australia is ideally placed in terms of stamina aptitude to succeed at 12 furlongs. But if the race is searching the St Leger types at the head of our table could come into it

Australia hits the sweet spot of stamina suitability

ON FORM and in the betting market, this year’s Investec Derby is dominated by one horse, Australia. The Dosage also confirms that the son of Galileo is the ideal type to succeed at 12 furlongs. For many that’s all they need to know, but for those wishing to unearth potential value from those others suited to the trip in this year’s line-up, read on.

The accompanying table shows the 17 left in at the confirmation stage. As usual it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI. 

2014 Derby contenders

Colt                                        Sire/damsire                                       Profile                               DI            CD 
Pinzolo                                  Monsun/Barathea                               3-0-12-10-1 = 26                 0.53         -0.23 

True Story                              Manduro/Darshaan                             3-0-10-5-2 = 20                    0.67        -0.15 
Romsdal                                Halling/Singspiel                                3-1-9-6-1 = 20                      0.74        -0.05 
Western Hymn                        High Chaparral/Cape Cross                 2-2-10-4-2 = 20                    0.82        -0.10 
Geoffrey Chaucer                   Montjeu/Machiavellian                      7-1-20-12-0 = 40                 0.82           0.08 
Ebanoran                               Oasis Dream/Sadler’s Wells                 3-3-14-5-3 = 28                    0.87        -0.07 
Sudden Wonder                     New Approach/King’s Best                  2-1-9-4-0 = 16                      0.88         0.06 
Kingston Hill                          Mastercraftsman/Rainbow Quest         3-1-11-5-0 = 20                    0.90         0.10 
Kingfisher                              Galileo/Halling                                    5-0-13-6-0 = 24                    0.92        0.17 
Impulsive Moment                Galileo/Danehill                                  4-2-15-7-0 = 28                    0.93         0.11 
Australia                               Galileo/Cape Cross                               3-1-8-4-0 = 16                      1.00        0.19 
Red Galileo                          Dubawi/Galileo                                    3-0-6-2-1 = 12                      1.00        0.17 
Orchestra                              Galileo/Danehill                                   4-2-12-4-0 = 22                    1.20        0.27 
Snow Sky                              Nayef/Dansili                                        5-1-8-4-0 = 18                      1.25        0.39 
Fascinating Rock                   Fasnet Rock/Polar Falcon                    4-4-11-1-4 = 24                    1.29         0.13
Arod                                      Teofilo/Rahy                                        5-1-12-2-0 = 20                    1.50        0.45
Our Channel                         English Channel/Rahy                         8-4-12-0-0 = 24                    3.00        0.83

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Winning run

It’s tempting fate to note that since I started writing for the Racing Post Weekender (from Raceform Update) this column has a 100% record in this race. In 2011, we went for Pour Moi to ‘ruin the Queen’s day’; in 2012 Camelot was expected to come into his own at this trip despite having already won the 2,000 Guineas, and last year we went for Ruler Of The World to outperform the field, including his better fancied stablemate. 

Favourite’s chance

Like Camelot, Australia can be fully expected to excel at 12 furlongs. The son of Derby-winner Galileo and Oaks-winner Ouija Board carried the burden of being touted as the latest of an ever-extending sequence of best things that the yard has had when he lined up in the Guineas. Despite not obliging (as we predicted) the colt nevertheless ran a fine race in defeat. As we noted in our Guineas preview, Australia has a blue-print Dosage profile for the Derby, with a DI of exactly 1 and a centre of distribution (CD) close to zero (0.19). We recommended backing him for the Derby ahead of what we expected to be a good showing behind Kingman in the Guineas. As it was he got very close to Kingman, but both had to give best to Night Of Thunder in a thrilling opening Classic. Australia looks a justifiable favourite for this, but for those who didn’t back him when they should have his odds are now prohibitively skinny.

The Group 2 winning Geoffrey Chaucer is another Ballydoyle inmate that looks to have a mile-and-a-half well within his compass. The Montjeu colt had no luck in running when losing momentum twice in The Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, in a messy race, and while it seems unlikely that he would have won without the interference at Leopardstown he has been the subject of sustained support in the market. Stablemates Orchestra and Kingfisher look likely to play supporting roles, even though Orchestra follows the route of last year’s Derby winner Ruler Of The World in taking the Chester Vase. 

Inconclusive

Dermot Weld’s Fascinating Rock was awarded the Derrinstown in the stewards’ room, with the first past the post, Ebanoran, demoted to second. The race developed into what amounts to not much more than a three-furlong sprint and won’t tell us a great deal for this. The Dosage tells us that both should get 12 furlongs and of the pair Ebanoran is particularly suited to a test of stamina, with 8 points in the stamina wing of his profile. 

Godolphin

Godolphin’s True Story ran out an impressive winner of the Feilden Stakes on his reappearance but disappointed when only third to The Grey Gatsby in the Dante. That performance doesn’t look so bad now in light of the subsequent victory of The Grey Gatsby in the Prix du Jockey Club on Sunday. True Story, by Manduro out of a Darshaan mare, is likely to be very well suited to a test of stamina, on a DI of 0.67 and a negative CD, putting him near the head of our table for stamina aptitude, below the Monsun colt Pinzolo. Lower down our table the Dante runner-up Arod looks well suited to 10 furlongs, but may be stretched at this trip.

Of the three Godolphin colts Pinzolo and Sudden Wonder, trained by Charlie Appleby, and True Story, trained by Saeed bin Suroor, Sudden Wonder is the best placed in our table on a DI of 0.88 and True Story the best placed on form.

Leger types

The Roger Varian-trained Kingston Hill, by Mastercraftsman out of a Rainbow Quest mare, like Australia, ran a solid Derby trial in the 2,000 Guineas, staying on about five-lengths off the winner. Considering the Guineas was never going to be the race for him it’s not surprising that he surrendered his otherwise unblemished record over the Rowley Mile. He is just where he wants to be in our table for a convincing showing in this.

John Gosden’s Western Hymn is another showing prepotent stamina aptitude as does his stablemate, Princess Haya’s Romsdal who has been supplemented for this at a cost of £75,000. These two, along with the likes of Pinzolo, True Story, Geoffrey Chaucer and Ebanoran could prove to be effective St Leger types and would come into this if it becomes a particularly strong test of stamina. In that circumstance the focus could switch to this group.

After finishing runner-up to Western Hymn on his reappearance at Newbury the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Snow Sky won the Listed Derby trial at Lingfield. While the Derby trip shouldn’t prove a problem, the Nayef colt may have to give best to others here.

The Ed Dunlop-trained all-weather winner Red Galileo has been beaten by the likes of Pinzolo, Western Hymn and Snow Sky and even if suited by this trip is unlikely to reverse form with those here. Another winner on the all-weather, the Andrew Balding-trained Impulsive Moment, finished runner-up to Western Hymn in the Classic Trial at Sandown. The son of Galileo should relish 12 furlongs and while he would have to improve dramatically cannot be entirely dismissed from calculations. The English Channel colt Our Channel won Epsom’s Derby Trial for William Haggas, but the Dosage gives him little chance at the trip, at the foot of our table, and it would be surprising to see him figure. 

Speed/stamina balance

The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a DI of 1.0 and a CD of zero. The average DI for the past 13 winners is only a little higher at 1.15 and those in a band between about DI 0.8 and 1.4 appear best suited to the requirements of the race (see table). 

Dosage of previous Derby winners

Year     Colt                                 DI

2013     Ruler Of The World      1.05
2012     Camelot                        0.94
2011     Pour Moi                       0.78
2010     Workforce                     1.44
2009     Sea The Stars              3.00
2008     New Approach             0.89
2007     Authorized                    0.86
2006     Sir Percy                       0.54
2005     Motivator                       1.43
2004     North Light                    1.13
2003     Kris Kin                         1.05
2002     High Chaparral             0.82
2001     Galileo                           1.11 

Average                                      1.15     

Those who matched this requirement, of the past 13 winners, are: Ruler Of The World (DI 1.05), Camelot (0.94), Pour Moi (0.78), Workforce (1.44), New Approach (0.89), Authorized (0.86), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82) and Galileo (1.11). Just one of the 13, Sea The Stars, had a higher DI than is normally associated with this race (3.0), suggesting speed over stamina. 

Shortlist

The best matches this year are: Western Hymn (DI 0.82),  Geoffrey Chaucer (0.82), Ebanoran (0.87), Sudden Wonder (0.88), Kingston Hill (0.90), Kingfisher (0.92), Impulsive Moment (0.93), Australia (1.00), Red Galileo (1.00), Orchestra (1.20), Snow Sky (1.25) and Fascinating Rock (1.29). 

Of these Geoffrey Chaucer, Ebanoran, Kingston Hill and Australia are preferred. It may also be worth keeping an eye on True Story and Romsdal who fall just off the top end of our range and will not only get 12 furlongs but will need it.

Verdict

1)     Australia

2)     Kingston Hill

3)     Geoffrey Chaucer

4)     True Story

5)     Ebanoran

      More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.