Derby: Stamina aptitude

The Derby favourite Australia is ideally placed in terms of stamina aptitude to succeed at 12 furlongs. But if the race is searching the St Leger types at the head of our table could come into it

Australia hits the sweet spot of stamina suitability

ON FORM and in the betting market, this year’s Investec Derby is dominated by one horse, Australia. The Dosage also confirms that the son of Galileo is the ideal type to succeed at 12 furlongs. For many that’s all they need to know, but for those wishing to unearth potential value from those others suited to the trip in this year’s line-up, read on.

The accompanying table shows the 17 left in at the confirmation stage. As usual it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI. 

2014 Derby contenders

Colt                                        Sire/damsire                                       Profile                               DI            CD 
Pinzolo                                  Monsun/Barathea                               3-0-12-10-1 = 26                 0.53         -0.23 

True Story                              Manduro/Darshaan                             3-0-10-5-2 = 20                    0.67        -0.15 
Romsdal                                Halling/Singspiel                                3-1-9-6-1 = 20                      0.74        -0.05 
Western Hymn                        High Chaparral/Cape Cross                 2-2-10-4-2 = 20                    0.82        -0.10 
Geoffrey Chaucer                   Montjeu/Machiavellian                      7-1-20-12-0 = 40                 0.82           0.08 
Ebanoran                               Oasis Dream/Sadler’s Wells                 3-3-14-5-3 = 28                    0.87        -0.07 
Sudden Wonder                     New Approach/King’s Best                  2-1-9-4-0 = 16                      0.88         0.06 
Kingston Hill                          Mastercraftsman/Rainbow Quest         3-1-11-5-0 = 20                    0.90         0.10 
Kingfisher                              Galileo/Halling                                    5-0-13-6-0 = 24                    0.92        0.17 
Impulsive Moment                Galileo/Danehill                                  4-2-15-7-0 = 28                    0.93         0.11 
Australia                               Galileo/Cape Cross                               3-1-8-4-0 = 16                      1.00        0.19 
Red Galileo                          Dubawi/Galileo                                    3-0-6-2-1 = 12                      1.00        0.17 
Orchestra                              Galileo/Danehill                                   4-2-12-4-0 = 22                    1.20        0.27 
Snow Sky                              Nayef/Dansili                                        5-1-8-4-0 = 18                      1.25        0.39 
Fascinating Rock                   Fasnet Rock/Polar Falcon                    4-4-11-1-4 = 24                    1.29         0.13
Arod                                      Teofilo/Rahy                                        5-1-12-2-0 = 20                    1.50        0.45
Our Channel                         English Channel/Rahy                         8-4-12-0-0 = 24                    3.00        0.83

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Winning run

It’s tempting fate to note that since I started writing for the Racing Post Weekender (from Raceform Update) this column has a 100% record in this race. In 2011, we went for Pour Moi to ‘ruin the Queen’s day’; in 2012 Camelot was expected to come into his own at this trip despite having already won the 2,000 Guineas, and last year we went for Ruler Of The World to outperform the field, including his better fancied stablemate. 

Favourite’s chance

Like Camelot, Australia can be fully expected to excel at 12 furlongs. The son of Derby-winner Galileo and Oaks-winner Ouija Board carried the burden of being touted as the latest of an ever-extending sequence of best things that the yard has had when he lined up in the Guineas. Despite not obliging (as we predicted) the colt nevertheless ran a fine race in defeat. As we noted in our Guineas preview, Australia has a blue-print Dosage profile for the Derby, with a DI of exactly 1 and a centre of distribution (CD) close to zero (0.19). We recommended backing him for the Derby ahead of what we expected to be a good showing behind Kingman in the Guineas. As it was he got very close to Kingman, but both had to give best to Night Of Thunder in a thrilling opening Classic. Australia looks a justifiable favourite for this, but for those who didn’t back him when they should have his odds are now prohibitively skinny.

The Group 2 winning Geoffrey Chaucer is another Ballydoyle inmate that looks to have a mile-and-a-half well within his compass. The Montjeu colt had no luck in running when losing momentum twice in The Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, in a messy race, and while it seems unlikely that he would have won without the interference at Leopardstown he has been the subject of sustained support in the market. Stablemates Orchestra and Kingfisher look likely to play supporting roles, even though Orchestra follows the route of last year’s Derby winner Ruler Of The World in taking the Chester Vase. 

Inconclusive

Dermot Weld’s Fascinating Rock was awarded the Derrinstown in the stewards’ room, with the first past the post, Ebanoran, demoted to second. The race developed into what amounts to not much more than a three-furlong sprint and won’t tell us a great deal for this. The Dosage tells us that both should get 12 furlongs and of the pair Ebanoran is particularly suited to a test of stamina, with 8 points in the stamina wing of his profile. 

Godolphin

Godolphin’s True Story ran out an impressive winner of the Feilden Stakes on his reappearance but disappointed when only third to The Grey Gatsby in the Dante. That performance doesn’t look so bad now in light of the subsequent victory of The Grey Gatsby in the Prix du Jockey Club on Sunday. True Story, by Manduro out of a Darshaan mare, is likely to be very well suited to a test of stamina, on a DI of 0.67 and a negative CD, putting him near the head of our table for stamina aptitude, below the Monsun colt Pinzolo. Lower down our table the Dante runner-up Arod looks well suited to 10 furlongs, but may be stretched at this trip.

Of the three Godolphin colts Pinzolo and Sudden Wonder, trained by Charlie Appleby, and True Story, trained by Saeed bin Suroor, Sudden Wonder is the best placed in our table on a DI of 0.88 and True Story the best placed on form.

Leger types

The Roger Varian-trained Kingston Hill, by Mastercraftsman out of a Rainbow Quest mare, like Australia, ran a solid Derby trial in the 2,000 Guineas, staying on about five-lengths off the winner. Considering the Guineas was never going to be the race for him it’s not surprising that he surrendered his otherwise unblemished record over the Rowley Mile. He is just where he wants to be in our table for a convincing showing in this.

John Gosden’s Western Hymn is another showing prepotent stamina aptitude as does his stablemate, Princess Haya’s Romsdal who has been supplemented for this at a cost of £75,000. These two, along with the likes of Pinzolo, True Story, Geoffrey Chaucer and Ebanoran could prove to be effective St Leger types and would come into this if it becomes a particularly strong test of stamina. In that circumstance the focus could switch to this group.

After finishing runner-up to Western Hymn on his reappearance at Newbury the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Snow Sky won the Listed Derby trial at Lingfield. While the Derby trip shouldn’t prove a problem, the Nayef colt may have to give best to others here.

The Ed Dunlop-trained all-weather winner Red Galileo has been beaten by the likes of Pinzolo, Western Hymn and Snow Sky and even if suited by this trip is unlikely to reverse form with those here. Another winner on the all-weather, the Andrew Balding-trained Impulsive Moment, finished runner-up to Western Hymn in the Classic Trial at Sandown. The son of Galileo should relish 12 furlongs and while he would have to improve dramatically cannot be entirely dismissed from calculations. The English Channel colt Our Channel won Epsom’s Derby Trial for William Haggas, but the Dosage gives him little chance at the trip, at the foot of our table, and it would be surprising to see him figure. 

Speed/stamina balance

The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a DI of 1.0 and a CD of zero. The average DI for the past 13 winners is only a little higher at 1.15 and those in a band between about DI 0.8 and 1.4 appear best suited to the requirements of the race (see table). 

Dosage of previous Derby winners

Year     Colt                                 DI

2013     Ruler Of The World      1.05
2012     Camelot                        0.94
2011     Pour Moi                       0.78
2010     Workforce                     1.44
2009     Sea The Stars              3.00
2008     New Approach             0.89
2007     Authorized                    0.86
2006     Sir Percy                       0.54
2005     Motivator                       1.43
2004     North Light                    1.13
2003     Kris Kin                         1.05
2002     High Chaparral             0.82
2001     Galileo                           1.11 

Average                                      1.15     

Those who matched this requirement, of the past 13 winners, are: Ruler Of The World (DI 1.05), Camelot (0.94), Pour Moi (0.78), Workforce (1.44), New Approach (0.89), Authorized (0.86), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82) and Galileo (1.11). Just one of the 13, Sea The Stars, had a higher DI than is normally associated with this race (3.0), suggesting speed over stamina. 

Shortlist

The best matches this year are: Western Hymn (DI 0.82),  Geoffrey Chaucer (0.82), Ebanoran (0.87), Sudden Wonder (0.88), Kingston Hill (0.90), Kingfisher (0.92), Impulsive Moment (0.93), Australia (1.00), Red Galileo (1.00), Orchestra (1.20), Snow Sky (1.25) and Fascinating Rock (1.29). 

Of these Geoffrey Chaucer, Ebanoran, Kingston Hill and Australia are preferred. It may also be worth keeping an eye on True Story and Romsdal who fall just off the top end of our range and will not only get 12 furlongs but will need it.

Verdict

1)     Australia

2)     Kingston Hill

3)     Geoffrey Chaucer

4)     True Story

5)     Ebanoran

      More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.