It’s probably Definitly Red
One For Arthur and Definitly
Red are my only ante-post bets so far this year and I still like both
their chances, but at least one or two others also make appeal at the moment in
an open looking race and, as usual, I’ll be backing a small handful ahead of the
race tomorrow.
I was all in on The Last Samuri last year (finished
runner-up), but he has to shoulder 16lb more this year off top-weight (of 11st
10lb). Historically I haven’t fancied the chances of those carrying more than
11 stone, but in recent years such horses have done much better than in the
past (due to the way the race is now framed with the weights more compressed
and all 40 running in the handicap proper). The horse at the bottom of the
handicap carries 10st 6lb (rather than the 10st minimum), so those with the
higher weights shouldn’t be as stretched, in relative terms, as they would have
been. Of those above 11st More Of That, Saphir Du Rheu
and Blaklion could prove best.
Of those on lower marks (in racecard order) Cause Of Causes, Vieux Lion Rouge, Definitely Red, Pleasant Company,
One For Arthur and Measureofmydreams all make some sort of
appeal.
Definitly
Red is
a young horse (8yo) on the upgrade with an already high rating and he convincingly
beat The Last
Samuri last time out at Doncaster. The Mullins-trained Pleasant Company also looks on the upgrade. Measureofmydreams is around 40/1 at the time of writing and has a
fair chance off a reasonable weight. In the end I’ve got it down to a large handful,
in rough order (Note: Paddy Power is going each-way first six, at a fifth of
the odds, most of the others first four, a quarter, as usual):
1) Definitly
Red
2) Pleasant
Company
3) One
For Arthur
4) Blaklion
5) Vieux
Lion Rouge
6) Measureofmydreams
7) Cause Of Causes
7) Cause Of Causes
8) Saphir
Du Rheu
I’d be surprised if one of
these doesn’t win, even in an open year. If you have a strong preference for one or two of these I’d
heartily recommend you go for it.
