GRAND NATIONAL 2017

It’s probably Definitly Red

One For Arthur and Definitly Red are my only ante-post bets so far this year and I still like both their chances, but at least one or two others also make appeal at the moment in an open looking race and, as usual, I’ll be backing a small handful ahead of the race tomorrow.

I was all in on The Last Samuri last year (finished runner-up), but he has to shoulder 16lb more this year off top-weight (of 11st 10lb). Historically I haven’t fancied the chances of those carrying more than 11 stone, but in recent years such horses have done much better than in the past (due to the way the race is now framed with the weights more compressed and all 40 running in the handicap proper). The horse at the bottom of the handicap carries 10st 6lb (rather than the 10st minimum), so those with the higher weights shouldn’t be as stretched, in relative terms, as they would have been. Of those above 11st More Of That, Saphir Du Rheu and Blaklion could prove best. Of those on lower marks (in racecard order) Cause Of Causes, Vieux Lion Rouge, Definitely Red, Pleasant Company, One For Arthur and Measureofmydreams all make some sort of appeal.

Definitly Red is a young horse (8yo) on the upgrade with an already high rating and he convincingly beat The Last Samuri last time out at Doncaster. The Mullins-trained Pleasant Company also looks on the upgrade. Measureofmydreams is around 40/1 at the time of writing and has a fair chance off a reasonable weight. In the end I’ve got it down to a large handful, in rough order (Note: Paddy Power is going each-way first six, at a fifth of the odds, most of the others first four, a quarter, as usual):

1)     Definitly Red

2)     Pleasant Company

3)     One For Arthur

4)     Blaklion

5)     Vieux Lion Rouge

6)     Measureofmydreams
7)   Cause Of Causes

8)     Saphir Du Rheu

I’d be surprised if one of these doesn’t win, even in an open year. If you have a strong preference for one or two of these I’d heartily recommend you go for it.