GRAND NATIONAL 2017

It’s probably Definitly Red

One For Arthur and Definitly Red are my only ante-post bets so far this year and I still like both their chances, but at least one or two others also make appeal at the moment in an open looking race and, as usual, I’ll be backing a small handful ahead of the race tomorrow.

I was all in on The Last Samuri last year (finished runner-up), but he has to shoulder 16lb more this year off top-weight (of 11st 10lb). Historically I haven’t fancied the chances of those carrying more than 11 stone, but in recent years such horses have done much better than in the past (due to the way the race is now framed with the weights more compressed and all 40 running in the handicap proper). The horse at the bottom of the handicap carries 10st 6lb (rather than the 10st minimum), so those with the higher weights shouldn’t be as stretched, in relative terms, as they would have been. Of those above 11st More Of That, Saphir Du Rheu and Blaklion could prove best. Of those on lower marks (in racecard order) Cause Of Causes, Vieux Lion Rouge, Definitely Red, Pleasant Company, One For Arthur and Measureofmydreams all make some sort of appeal.

Definitly Red is a young horse (8yo) on the upgrade with an already high rating and he convincingly beat The Last Samuri last time out at Doncaster. The Mullins-trained Pleasant Company also looks on the upgrade. Measureofmydreams is around 40/1 at the time of writing and has a fair chance off a reasonable weight. In the end I’ve got it down to a large handful, in rough order (Note: Paddy Power is going each-way first six, at a fifth of the odds, most of the others first four, a quarter, as usual):

1)     Definitly Red

2)     Pleasant Company

3)     One For Arthur

4)     Blaklion

5)     Vieux Lion Rouge

6)     Measureofmydreams
7)   Cause Of Causes

8)     Saphir Du Rheu

I’d be surprised if one of these doesn’t win, even in an open year. If you have a strong preference for one or two of these I’d heartily recommend you go for it.

St Leger preview: Idaho gets vote ahead of Parliament

Idaho gets vote ahead of Parliament

A version of this appears on page 16 of today's Racing Post Weekender

THE DOSAGE system comes into its own when analysing Group races that require a test of stamina. It is particularly useful when there is scant form at the distance to go on and in situations where those taking part are still largely unexposed. Indeed, there are few races in which the system gives us more of an edge than the Ladbrokes St Leger.

Winning criteria

The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 10 winners of the race is 1.03 with the ‘right types’ having a DI of below 1 (the lower the DI the more stamina potential). Of recent winners, the overwhelming majority satisfy the requirement of a DI of about 1 or lower – they comprise: Simple Verse (DI 0.88), Leading Light (0.96), Encke (1.05), Masked Marvel (0.68), Mastery (1.00), Conduit (0.76), Sixties Icon (1.00), Scorpion (1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (0.92), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73). Only Arctic Cosmos had an unusually high DI of 1.77 of recent winners of the race (see table of recent winners). However, this is relative to those horses actually taking part. Just two have DIs lower than the 10-year average in this year’s renewal, Ormito and Housesofparliament.

The main table shows the 15 still in contention for this season’s final Classic at Monday’s confirmation stage. As usual, it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI. Note that Galileo will soon be added to the chef-de-race list (he is not yet included) as an influence for stamina, as well as middle-distance speed. This means that the stamina figures for all the featured Galileo’s will be enhanced, pushing them higher up the table than they currently appear.

2016 St Leger contenders

Colt                            Sire/dam sire                            Profile                          DI            CD

Ormito                         Mamool/Acatenango                   2-0-9-6-1 = 18                0.57        -0.22

Housesofparliament      Galileo/Dixielandband                  5-0-12-5-0 = 22              1.00        0.23

Twilight Payment          Teofilo/Oasis Dream                    1-2-9-2-0 = 14                1.15        0.14

Idaho                           Galileo/Danehill                          4-2-12-4-0 = 22               1.20        0.27

The Major General        Galileo/Danehill                          4-2-12-4-0 = 22               1.20        0.27

Sword Fighter               Galileo/Grand Lodge                   5-3-8-6-0 = 22                 1.20        0.32

Harbour Law                 Lawman/Pivotal                          1-1-5-0-1 = 8                   1.29        0.13

Unicorn                        Galileo/Danehill                          5-2-13-4-0 = 24               1.29        0.33

Red Verdon                  Lemon Drop Kid/Choisir              7-0-13-4-0 = 24                1.29        0.42

Triplicate                      Galileo/Danehill Dancer               5-2-9-4-0 = 20                 1.35        0.40

Harrison                       Sixties Icon/Invincible Spirit         3-1-6-2-0 = 12                 1.40        0.42

Ventura Storm               Zoffany/Haafhd                           2-1-6-1-0 = 10                 1.50        0.40

Muntahaa                     Dansili/Linamix                          1-3-7-1-0 = 12                  1.67        0.33

Kellstorm                     Galileo/Gone West                     7-6-15-4-0 = 32                1.78        0.50

The Tartan Spartan        The Carbon Unit/Traditionally       6-0-5-0-1 = 12                  2.43        0.83

2015: Simple Verse (Duke Of Marmalade/Sadler’s Wells) 4-2-18-7-1 = 32, 0.88, 0.03

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

John Gosden’s Wings of Desire will not take part, which seems a pity as his Dosage suggested he could have been a major player at this trip and the yard will instead be represented by the progressive Muntahaa. The Dansili colt recently tasted victory at Listed level at Chester and was previously placed in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot. He needs to improve again to figure here and others appear better suited to a true stamina test, according to our table, but there appears to be a level of confidence behind the colt and his chances are strongly endorsed by his rider Paul Hanagan. Gosden has been successful in this with Shantou, Lucarno, Arctic Cosmos and Masked Marvel.

O’Brien options

Aidan O’Brien again has plenty of options for this with seven still engaged at the time of writing.

Highland Reel’s brother Idaho, by Galileo out of the Danehill mare Hveger, was placed behind Harzand in both the Derby and Irish Derby before taking York’s Great Voltigeur in impressive fashion from his stablemate Housesofparliament who ensured an honest pace and is the shortest priced ante-post favourite since Camelot, who finished runner-up to Godolphin’s Encke in 2012.

The Queen’s Vase and Curragh Cup winner, Sword Fighter, took on older horses in the Goodwood Cup at the end of July where he finished fifth to Big Orange. Back among his own age group he can make his presence felt, but is normally a front runner and could set the race up for something with a superior finishing kick.

Ballydoyle could also be represented by, Kellstorm, The Major General, Triplicate and Unicorn. Unicorn (a brother to the useful stayer Bondi Beach) and The Major General are, like Idaho, bred on a Galileo/Danehill cross and likely to show broadly similar stamina aptitude, while Triplicate is bred on a Galileo/Danehill Dancer cross and Kellstorm is brother to Gold Cup winner Order Of St George, by Galileo out of a Gone West mare.

Jim Bolger’s Twilight Payment is another strong player from Ireland. The son of Teofilo was runner-up to Order Of St George in the Irish St Leger Trial at the Curragh, keeping on well in closing stages. In relative terms stamina will not be an issue here.

The Ed Dunlop-trained Red Verdon was beaten in the Derby and the Irish Derby before putting up arguably his best performance at Saint-Cloud when splitting Mont Ormel and Cloth Of Stars in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris. The son of Lemon Drop Kid had won a handicap off top-weight at Haydock against his own generation over 12 furlongs in very good style earlier in the season. He tends to finish his races with a flourish and is certainly not out of it if still in contention in the final stages. He has a mixture of influences in his pedigree, but four points in the stamina wing of his profile gives some hope of him getting the trip here. James Doyle is set to take the ride.

Harbour Law split Sword Fighter and Twilight Payment in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot of two miles and Laura Mongan’s charge should hold his own in this company.

Ormito finished runner-up to the useful Kings Fete in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury and had previously occupied the same spot behind Richard Hannon’s Ventura Storm in a Listed race at Hamilton. The son of Mamool features at the top of our table for staying aptitude and won’t be beaten for want of stamina. However, Andrew Balding’s charge is exposed and may be outclassed having only won his maiden in nine appearances. The same applies to Mick Channon’s Sixties Icon colt Harrison who is also exposed having won a maiden in eight appearances.

The Tartan Spartan is an unexposed winner of a maiden at Thirsk, but looks to have little chance in this company and features at the foot of our table.

Proven trial

The Great Voltigeur has proven a reliable trial for the final Classic. Since the early 1970s, Athens Wood, Bustino, Reference Point, Bob’s Return, Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno have won both races and the likes of Moon Madness, Snurge, Silver Patriarch, Bollin Eric, Brian Boru, Mastery and Encke, have been placed in the York race before winning the Leger.

Being placed in the Derby is also no obstacle to winning at Doncaster, with Shantou, Silver Patriarch, Rule Of Law and Kingston Hill all managing the feat since the mid-1990s. So on this basis, Idaho has excellent credentials for this season’s renewal on both York and Epsom form. Also, with Galileo soon to be added to the chef-de-race list as an influence for stamina, as well as for middle-distance speed, all of the Galileo’s in our table should stay a bit better than their headline figures suggest.

Speed/stamina balance

The average DI for the past 10 winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for the race below 1. A low or negative CD is also an advantage (this is especially true when the race lacks a top-notch middle-distance type that is capable of stepping up, although this year Idaho may prove to be just that).

Dosage of previous St Leger winners

Year       Horse                                     DI                    CD

2015       Simple Verse                                       0.88                       0.03

2014       Kingston Hill                                        0.90                       0.10

2013       Leading Light                                       0.96                       0.10

2012       Encke                                                    1.05                        0.20

2011       Masked Marvel                                     0.68                       -0.13

2010       Arctic Cosmos                                     1.77                        0.50

2009       Mastery                                                  1.00                        0.00

2008       Conduit                                                  0.76                       -0.09

2007       Lucarno                                                 1.34                         0.26

2006       Sixties Icon                                           1.00                         0.23

10-year average Dosage index       =              1.03

Summary

While Ormito has the sort of Dosage profile you would be looking for in this he doesn’t look quite up to it in terms of class. Idaho looks the best fit in terms of stamina potential allied to class and can be expected to have enough of what’s needed here without necessarily going on to be a cup horse next season. Housesofparliament may again be good enough to fill the runner-up spot, particularly if not used simply as a pacemaker, with Twilight Payment, Red Verdon and Harbour Law the best of the rest.

Verdict:

1)     Idaho

2)     Housesofparliament

3)     Twilight Payment

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

St Leger preview

Tenacious Stars represents Classic form and shows solid middle-distance stamina

THE DOSAGE system comes into its own when analysing Group races that require a test of stamina. It is particularly useful when there is scant form at the distance to go on and in situations where those taking part are still largely unexposed. Indeed, there are few races in which the system gives us more of an edge than the Ladbrokes St Leger.

Winning criteria

The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 10 winners of the race is 1.04 with the ‘right types’ having a DI of below 1 (the lower the DI the more stamina potential). Of recent past winners, the overwhelming majority satisfy the requirement of a DI of about 1 or lower – they comprise: Kingston Hill (DI 0.90), Leading Light (0.96), Encke (1.05), Masked Marvel (0.68), Mastery (1.00), Conduit (0.76), Sixties Icon (1.00), Scorpion (1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (0.92), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73).

The table shows the eight still in contention for this season’s final Classic. As usual, it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI. This year several of the profiles have the look of middle-distance performers rather than dyed-in-the-wool stayers. Relative stamina performance will nevertheless play a part.

2015 St Leger contenders

Colt                            Sire/dam sire                                Profile                             DI            CD

Vengeur Masque         Monsun/Lear Fan                             1-0-19-8-0 = 28                    0.60        -0.21

Medrano                     Archipenko/Lomitas                         6-0-17-7-2 = 32                    0.83        0.03

Simple Verse              Duke Of Marmalade/Sadler’s Wells   4-2-18-7-1 = 32                    0.88        0.03

Storm The Stars          Sea The Stars/Sadler’s Wells           4-1-19-4-0 = 28                    1.07        0.18

Proposed                    Invincible Spirit/Mi Cielo                    3-3-10-2-2 = 20                    1.22        0.15

Bondi Beach               Galileo/Danehill                                5-2-13-4-0 = 24                    1.29        0.33

Fields Of Athenry         Galileo/Danehill                               6-2-14-4-0 = 26                    1.36        0.38

Order Of St George      Galileo/Gone West                          7-6-15-4-0 = 32                    1.78        0.50

2014: Kingston Hill (Mastercraftsman/Rainbow Quest) 3-1-11-5-0 = 20, 0.90, 0.10

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Solid form

The winner of York’s Great Voltigeur Stakes, Storm The Stars, carries solid Classic form into the St Leger on his placed efforts behind the John Gosden pair Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs in the Derby and Irish Derby respectively. While he has won only three of his 10 starts he has been placed in all but one of his other appearances and has shown a high level of consistency for his trainer William Haggas.

The Great Voltigeur has proven a reliable trial for the final Classic. Since 1971, Athens Wood, Bustino, Reference Point, Bob’s Return, Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno have won both races and the likes of Moon Madness, Snurge, Silver Patriarch, Bollin Eric, Brian Boru, Mastery and Encke, have been placed in the Great Voltigeur before winning the Leger. Being placed in the Derby is also no obstacle to winning at Doncaster, with Shantou, Silver Patriarch, Rule Of Law and last year’s St Leger winner Kingston Hill all managing the feat since the mid-1990s. On this basis, Storm The Stars has excellent credentials for this season’s renewal.

The son of Sea The Stars is out of an unraced Sadler’s Wells mare. Sadler’s Wells is a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (chief of breed) in the Dosage system and the sire of Sea The Stars, Cape Cross, has recently (in August 2015) been established as a Classic chef-de-race. While this doesn’t show bottomless stamina, a DI of 1.07 is well within the acceptable range to be successful in both the Derby and the St Leger, with 10-year average DIs for those races being 1.19 and 1.04 respectively, and middle-distance stamina may be all that is required in this year’s renewal in the absence of true and fully effective stamina types.

O’Brien options

Aidan O’Brien again had plenty of decent Leger prospects to choose from, which has boiled down to three Galileo colts – Bondi Beach, Fields Of Athenry and Order Of St George.

The unexposed Bondi Beach, finished close up to Storm The Stars at York and had previously won the Curragh Cup, albeit narrowly from his stablemate Order Of St George. Despite being bumped and carried across the track by a determined winner at York, Storm The Stars looked to have his measure that day. Bondi Beach nevertheless looks open to further improvement.

Since going down by a short head to his stablemate Bondi Beach, on his seasonal reappearance in the Curragh Cup, Order Of St George has won twice, most recently on his return to the Curragh where he beat Sea Moon by some seven-and-a-half lengths over 14 furlongs. It is unclear at the time of writing which one of the Ballydoyle trio will be their first string. All three are by Galileo and all three have already proved effective beyond middle-distances and as things stand are on official ratings of 115 (Bondi Beach and Order Of St George) and 114 (Fields Of Athenry), setting a level just below that of Storm The Stars on an OR of 116. All three are also within acceptable parameters for winning the St Leger despite appearing in a cluster at the foot of our table.

Fields Of Athenry is a relentless front runner that has won three of his five starts this season and was pitched in against the older horses in the Ebor last time out for his new owner, where he blazed a trail before fading out of the frame. He was far from disgraced, however, registering a very decent RPR of 118 in the process. The three Galileo colts are expressions of middle-distance stamina rather than extreme stamina attributes.

David Brown’s exposed Medrano, winner of two of his 12 starts, looks like a soft ground performer. He won a Listed race at Hamilton in good style before stepping up to Group company behind Highland Reel at Goodwood and Storm The Stars at York. He raced too keenly in the Great Voltigeur and dropped out in the straight. He nevertheless has good stamina potential.

Proposed won a Sandown maiden in May after struggling at Group 3 level, but has finished down his fields since when stepped up in trip. On sub-100 ratings the Invincible Spirit colt is almost certainly not good enough to make an impact here for trainer Richard Hannon.           

Legitimate stayers

At the head of our table the Mikel Delzangles-trained Vengeur Masque has won two of his five starts in France, but has plenty to find with his principal rivals here. However, the son of Monsun is at least a legitimate stayer and should not disgrace himself at the trip with eight points in the stamina wing of his profile and a negative centre of distribution.

The filly Simple Verse, who has been supplemented for the race at a cost of £50,000, should also come into her own at this trip. The Ralph Beckett-trained winner of three of her four most recent races, including the Lillie Langtry Stakes at Glorious Goodwood over 14 furlongs, will attempt to become the first filly to win the race since User Friendly in 1992. A daughter of Duke Of Marmalade out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, and on a DI of 0.88 and a CD of 0.03, she has just the sort of Dosage profile required for the St Leger but will need to progress again in terms of ability with the colts nearer to the head of the market. Beckett has been knocking on the door of the St Leger with his Oaks winners Look Here and Talent who finished third and second in this respectively and victory here is certainly within the realms of possibility.

Speed/stamina balance

The average DI for the past 10 winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for the race below 1. A low or negative CD is also an advantage (this is especially true when the race lacks a top-notch middle-distance type that is capable of stepping up; but that does not quite appear to be the case this year with the likes of Storm The Stars and the O’Brien trio taking part).

Dosage of previous St Leger winners

Year       Horse                                    DI                            CD

2014       Kingston Hill                          0.90                        0.10

2013       Leading Light                         0.96                        0.10

2012       Encke                                   1.05                        0.20

2011       Masked Marvel                       0.68                        -0.13

2010       Arctic Cosmos                       1.77                        0.50

2009       Mastery                                 1.00                        0.00

2008       Conduit                                  0.76                        -0.09

2007       Lucarno                                 1.34                        0.26

2006       Sixties Icon                            1.00                        0.23

2005       Scorpion                                1.00                        0.19

Average Dosage index      =               1.04

Those with the best stamina credentials this year do not also look the best in terms of raw talent. This is good news for Storm The Stars and the Ballydoyle contingent who fall within the broader category of middle-distance stamina, which is also acceptable for winning this race. Preference is given to William Haggas’s admirable Storm The Stars over the likes of Bondi Beach, Fields Of Athenry and Order Of St George. Ralph Beckett’s progressive filly Simple Verse may prove good enough to make the frame.

Verdict:

1)     Storm The Stars

2)     Bondi Beach

3)     Fields Of Athenry/Order Of St George

4)     Simple Verse

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.