Steve Miller 2,000 Guineas – Dosage Special
Kingman has right blend of speed and stamina for the 2,000 Guineas – but Australia (and Kingston Hill) should be backed for the Derby ahead of Saturday’s race on the expectation of a decent showing at a trip likely to be short of his best
Index flags up contrast in race suitability between
Kingman and Australia
AS A NEW classic generation
emerges we barely have time to reflect that while the players change the
systems for sorting them out remain essentially the same. The 2,000 Guineas
poses the usual conundrum of brimming potential set against typically scant
form. Where the form is inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to identify
those with the best blend of speed and stamina to satisfy the demands of the
race.
The table shows the 17 left in
at the confirmation stage. In crude terms those with the most stamina potential
appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of
the Dosage Index (DI). Those with the best chances must not only make the grade
in terms of ability, but will also need an optimum blend of speed and stamina in
relation to the others in the race.
2,000 Guineas contenders
Horse Sire/damsire profile DI CD
Noozhoh Canarias Caradak/Singspiel 2-1-11-6-0 = 20 0.74 -0.05
Night Of Thunder Dubawi/Galileo 2-0-5-2-1 = 10 0.82 0.00
Kingston Hill Mastercraftsman/Rainbow
Quest 3-1-11-5-0 = 20 0.90 0.10
The Grey Gatsby Mastercraftsman/Entrepreneur 3-1-12-4-0 = 20 1.00 0.15
Australia Galileo/Cape
Cross 3-1-8-4-0 = 16 1.00 0.19
Oklahoma City Oasis Dream/Galileo 2-3-14-3-0 = 22 1.20 0.18
Charm Spirit Invincible
Spirit/Montjeu 6-3-13-6-0 = 28 1.24 0.32
Master The World Mastercraftsman/Zaha 2-3-9-2-0 = 16 1.46 0.31
Toormore Arakan/Danetime 2-1-13-0-0 = 16 1.46 0.31
War Command War Front/Red Ransom 2-6-21-0-1 = 30 1.61 0.27
Kingman Invincible
Spirit/Zamindar 3-5-11-1-0 = 20 2.08 0.50
Ertijaal Oasis
Dream/Seeking The Gold 5-3-11-1-0 = 20 2.08 0.60
Outstrip Exceed And
Excel/El Prado 7-8-13-2-0 = 30 2.53 0.67
Giovanni Boldini War Front/Old Trieste 4-7-13-0-0 = 24 2.69 0.63
Bookrunner Tiznow/Chester House 7-0-7-0-0 = 14 3.00 1.00
Lat Hawill Invincible
Spirit/Primo Dominie 3-3-6-0-0 = 12 3.00 0.75
Shifting Power Compton Place/Alzao 1-9-6-0-0 = 16 4.33 0.69
Key to Profile: Left
to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate,
Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of
Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to
-2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage
profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds
to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative
CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.
The Dosage is of decisive
help to us this year as it separates the first two in the betting (at the time
of writing) – Kingman who is extremely well suited to the distance requirement
and Australia who will thrive at middle distances. Both are highly talented and
both can be expected to run well in this, but only one is an ideal fit to the
demands of this race.
Blue blood
The
highly regarded Aidan O’Brien-trained Australia
is a son of Galileo out of the Cape Cross mare Ouija Board. Connections will be
willing this bluest of blue bloods to carry all before him and his trainer has
designated him the latest of an ever-extending sequence of best things that the
yard has had. The colt certainly looks decent, but wishing something so isn’t
the same as it being so. He won a Group 3 at Leopardstown in taking style last
term after a couple of satisfactory maiden performances. Australia has a fine
Dosage profile for the Derby, with a DI of exactly 1 and a CD close to zero
(0.19), but it may prove worthwhile looking for something lower down the table
in this exacting classic, in which the best suited to the race invariably comes
out best.
Australia’s stablemate, the
Dewhurst winner War Command showed
solid form in his five appearances last term. The son of War Front is on a DI
of 1.61, which is much more in line with that of a typical Guineas winner than
his better-fancied stablemate Australia, who looks to have more stamina than is
usually associated with a winner of this race (Camelot and Frankel aside, in
recent years). The useful Giovanni
Boldini and Oklahoma City make
up the Ballydoyle contingent of four.
The John Gosden-trained Kingman was mightily impressive on his
return to action taking the Greenham Stakes convincingly from the talented
Night Of Thunder with the rest strung out. The son of Invincible Spirit is
clearly very smart and appears to have just the right blend of speed and
stamina, on a DI of 2.08. As I’m a big fan of Hannon’s Night Of Thunder, I have
to think that Kingman will take a world of beating in this.
Hannon’s hand
The
impressive Listed winner Night Of
Thunder looked to be going places after smart victories at Goodwood and
Doncaster last term and although well beaten behind Kingman on his reappearance
looks to be a colt brimming with potential. By Dubawi out of a Galileo mare,
the mile will not present a problem and he may well improve again for middle
distances. He remains in the mix here, but according to connections could
switch to the French 2,000 Guineas.
Night Of Thunder’s
stablemate Toormore was officially
last season’s top-rated two-year-old when he was unbeaten in three outings,
culminating in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh. The son of Arakan
ran out a fine winner of the Craven giving a 3lb penalty to runner-up The Grey Gatsby. He looks a very
credible contender over the Rowley mile and makes our shortlist for this. Shifting Power, by Compton Place, is
another smart unbeaten colt completing the Hannon hand of three. He looks like
he will do well at 8 furlongs, although the Dosage has him on a high index
suggesting speed over stamina.
The Roger Varian-trained
Racing Post Trophy winner Kingston Hill
is by Mastercraftsman out of a Rainbow Quest mare and will be suited to performing
beyond this trip. He would also be suited by any give in the ground and rain is
due (Newmarket may also water).
With
Saeed Bin Suroor’s True Story and Be Ready non-runners, Goldolphin is
represented by the Charlie Appleby-trained Outstrip,
winner of last season’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita. He has
good speed in his pedigree and must be respected here.
The
William Haggas-trained Ertijaal has
successfully stepped up to 7 furlongs this term in Listed company on the
all-weather and is where he should be in our table to excel at a mile, but he
will need to learn to settle at this trip.
Charm
Spirit and Bookrunner
remain in the mix for France. Charm Spirit is a son of Invincible Spirit out of
a Montjeu mare and will get this trip and further. The Caradak colt Noozhoh Canarias who split Karakontie
and Charm Spirit in last season’s Grand Criterium represents Spain. He has good
stamina in his pedigree (he is the only one with a negative CD, at the top of
our table, now that True Story is out), but is another that will need to learn
to settle to be effective at a mile or more.
Sweet spot
The average DI for the past ten
2,000 Guineas winners is 1.75 (see table), but those with a slightly higher DI
than the average (up to about DI 2) seem the ideal type for this race. Of the
past 10 winners those that fall within a typical range on this measure are: Dawn
Approach (DI 1.67), Makfi (2.11), Henrythenavigator (1.92), Cockney Rebel
(1.91), George Washington (1.67) and Haafhd (2.33). Frankel and Camelot were atypical
winners on identical DIs of 0.94 (indicating greater stamina potential than is
usually associated with this race). It is a mark of the raw ability of that
pair rather than appropriate stamina aptitude that enabled them to win the spring
classic.
Year Colt DI
2013 Dawn Approach 1.67
2012 Camelot 0.94
2011 Frankel 0.94
2010 Makfi 2.11
2009 Sea The Stars 3.00
2008 Henrythenavigator 1.92
2007 Cockney Rebel 1.91
2006 George Washington 1.67
2005 Footstepsinthesand 1.08* (from 1.77)
2004 Haafhd 2.33
Average 1.75
*
Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race
(see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)
Summary
Those with
a DI of 1.46 to 2.08 make our shortlist this year: Master The
World (DI 1.46), Toormore (1.46), War Command (1.61), Kingman (2.08) and Ertijaal (2.08). Of these Kingman, Toormore and War Command are
preferred.
Assuming equal ability
between Kingman and Australia, Kingman can be expected to
prove best over a mile (on a DI of 2.08). Australia would be preferred at
middle distances (on a DI of 1.0). But despite being likely to show improvement
for stepping up in trip, Australia carries a high level of stable confidence here
and should be backed ahead of Saturday’s race for the Derby on the expectation
of a decent showing behind Kingman. The same applies to Kingston Hill, who seems better suited to middle distances than the
Guineas. At this trip, Toormore and War Command are likely to give Kingman
the most to do.
Verdict:
1)
Kingman
2)
Toormore
3)
War Command
4)
Australia
5)
Kingston Hill
With Australia and Kingston Hill ideally suited to
further. (Derby bets assuming satisfactory prep in this.)
More on the Dosage system
from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and
in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink
Company, Ltd.
