Cheltenham Festival 2013: DAY 1 Trends and Selections

Cheltenham Festival 2013: DAY 1

Trends and Selections

DAY 1                 Tuesday March 12, 2013

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f

5yos or 6yos do best in this (winning nine of the past 11 renewals). The last favourite to win was Brave Inca in 2004, although three favourites have won in the past 11 renewals. The Irish tend to do well in this. Lightly exposed runners do well, although most had won last time out. If My Tent Or Yours can’t win Un Atout probably will, with the likes of Champagne Fever, Dodging Bullets and Melodic Rendezvous the best of the rest.

Shortlist:

My Tent Or Yours                                            6

Jezki                                                                 5

Un Atout                                                           5

Melodic Rendezvous                                      7

River Maigue                                                   6

Dodging Bullets                                               5

Champagne Fever                                          6

Pique Sous                                                      6

Chatterbox                              ?                       5

Mozoltov                                                           7

Selections:

1) My Tent Or Yours   2) Un Atout      3) Champagne Fever  e.w.

4) Melodic Rendezvous 5) Dodging Bullets

Previous winners

2012 Cinders And Ashes         5                              10/1

2011 Al Ferof                          6                              10/1

2010 Menorah                        5                              12/1

2009 Go Native                       6                              12/1

2008 Captain Cee Bee            7                              17/2
2007 Ebaziyan                       6                              40/1
2006 Noland                           5                              6/1
2005 Arcalis                           5                              20/1
2004 Brave Inca                      6                              7/2         fav
2003 Back In Front                 6                              3/1          fav
2002 Like-A-Butterfly              8                              7/4          fav

Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m

6yos and 7yos do well (winning seven of the past 11 renewals). 5yos no longer have the 5lb allowance they used to receive so are unlikely to do as well as in the past. Only two winners aged over seven in the past 21 renewals. Big priced horses tend not to do well, 8/1 or less is a good guide. Four actual favourites (Remittance Man, Klairon Davis, Azertyuiop and Sprinter Sacre) have won in the past 21 renewals. Highly rated ex-hurdlers (above at least 140) and French-breds do well.

Sprinter Sacre (recommended at 10/1 against for this last year) obliged at odds-on. Simonsig looks up to standard this time with Overturn (despite age) or possibly Captain Conan or Arvika Ligeonniere giving him most to do.

Shortlist:

Simonsig                                             7

Overturn                                               9                                 

Captain Conan                                   6

Arvika Ligeonniere                             8

Fago                                                     5

Oscars Well                                         8

Majala                                                  7

Selections:

1) Simonsig     2) Overturn     3) Captain Conan        4) Arvika Ligeonniere

Previous winners

2012 Sprinter Sacre                 6                              8/11         fav

2011 Captain Chris                  7                              6/1

2010 Sizing Europe                 8                              6/1

2009 Forpadydeplasterer         7                              8/1

2008 Tidal Bay                       7                              6/1

2007 My Way de Solzen         7                              7/2

2006 Voy Por Ustedes            5                              15/2

2005 Contraband                    7                              7/1

2004 Well Chief                      5                              9/1

2003 Azertyuiop                     6                              5/4           fav

2002 Moscow Flyer                8                              11/2

JLT Specialty Handicap Chase Grade 3 (5yo+) 3m ½f

No selection

Champion Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+)  2m ½f

Serious contenders should have won, or nearly won, their last race prior to the Champion and be the right side of eight, rather than older (one of the past 11 winners was 9). Those that have won or been placed at the Festival before do well. Eight favourites have won in the past 21 renewals. The ill-fated Darlan was the choice this year. In his absence it is difficult to pick holes in Hurricane Fly although on the day Binocular can be expected to run to a similar standard, but age is against both. Last year’s winner Rock On Ruby has done nothing wrong, although the suspicion was that Darlan had his measure before coming to grief last time. The 6yos Zarkandar and Grandouet could improve sufficiently to challenge, while Oscar Whisky would be interesting if lining up in this rather than the World Hurdle.

Shortlist:

Hurricane Fly                                      9

Binocular                                            9

Zarkandar                                           6

Rock On Ruby                                    8
Grandouet                                          6

Cinders And Ashes                           6

Countrywide Flame                           5

Oscar Whisky                         ?         8

Selections:

1) Rock On Ruby       2) Binocular (e.w.)      3) Hurricane Fly          4) Zarkandar                          

Previous winners

2012 Rock On Ruby              7                              11/1

2011 Hurricane Fly                7                              11/4         fav

2010 Binocular                      6                              9/1

2009 Punjabi                         6                              22/1

2008 Katchit                         5                              10/1

2007 Sublimity                      7                              16/1

2006 Brave Inca                    8                              7/4          fav

2005 Hardy Eustace              8                              7/2          joint-fav

2004 Hardy Eustace              7                              33/1

2003 Rooster Booster            9                              9/2

2002 Hors La Loi III                7                              10/1

Cross Country Handicap Chase (5yo+) 3m 7f

Shortlist:

Balthazar King                                     9

Selection:        1) Balthazar King

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle 2m 4f

Quevega has won four of the five renewals of this race. Whiteoak won the inaugural running at 20/1.

Shortlist:

Quevega                                                         9

Unaccompanied                                             6

Une Artiste                                                      5

Kentford Grey Lady                                        7

Selection: 1) Quevega

c Steve Miller 2013

Long Run has the class and stamina to reclaim Kempton crown

NICKY HENDERSON looks set to saddle a previous winner and a runner-up of the King George VI Chase in Long Run and Riverside Theatre, as well as his Champion Chase winner Finian’s Rainbow, at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Long Run ran to an RPR of 181 when beating his stablemate Riverside Theatre in the King George the time before last. He ran to the same mark when beating Denman in the Gold Cup. He then reproduced the same mark when runner up to Kauto Star in this last year and hit the same mark again at Newbury in February (that’s four 181s). His last two races have been in the low 170s, which is still as good as anything he’ll face this year. In other words, his opponents need to improve to beat Long Run’s worst performance of his past seven.

Long Run is not showing the signs of terminal decline that some would have us believe. In fact he’s been remarkably consistent in hitting his high marks in his main targets. He is also often criticised for his jumping, but has never fallen or unseated in 15 chase appearances all of which he has finished in the frame.

Long Run should be able to improve on his seasonal reappearance and hit something in the high 170s, which means he has an excellent chance of reclaiming this. A decent pace will also bring his superior stamina into play.

Of the others, Cue Card is improving, but in comparative terms he has run to a best of 170 and may not fully get the trip. So unless he improves another half a stone over three miles (which seems unlikely) he shouldn’t be troubling the favourite.

Sizing Europe and Sir Des Champs look set to stay in Ireland, while Grands Crus must step up dramatically on his effort in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, where he went out like a light, and recover from a subsequent breathing operation.

Riverside Theatre seems underrated by many. I had my biggest place bet of the NH season on him when runner-up in this splitting Long Run and Kauto Star and he has won a sequence of three Grade 1s since then, including a cracking renewal of the Ryanair Chase at the Festival.

Conclusion

Long Run looks value at anything bigger than about 2/1 to me, with Riverside Theatre again putting it up to him. Sir Des Champs, Cue Card and Finian’s Rainbow look the best of the remainder and at least one of these is doubtful. The rest have too many questions marks hanging over them, not least being good enough for this in the first place.

    1)  Long Run

    2)  Riverside Theatre

    3) Cue Card
                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                               c Steve Miller Dec 2012

Arc: Bite the bullet and side with the three-year-olds (again)

Arc: Bite the bullet and side with the three-year-olds (again)

It’s tricky this year. The two older horses I keep coming back to are St Nicholas Abbey and Orfevre, but I think I’m going to let both of these go.

According to the Racing Post there will be no mention of Good in the going come Sunday. It is Soft now and expected to be between Soft and Very Soft on the day.

Three-year-olds win this race since the allowance was raised in 1995 (the score is 14-3 in favour of the 3yos).

Although there are fewer 3yos than older horses running this year I reckon they have the advantage and Camelot, Saonois, Masterstroke and Great Heavens form a neat sub-set. Saonois and Masterstoke seem to quicken very well, while Camelot and Great Heavens tend to build momentum and then go clear. I think one of these four will win and nominate Camelot and Saonois as most likely. I can see why people want to be with Orfevre, he’s just about the best as things stand, but there’s not much in it for me and I think a couple of these three-year-olds will improve past him.

I’ll stake weighted win vs place bets on these four.

By opposing the older horses I will ensure decent profit or heavy loss. It’s a risk I’m prepared to take.

The draw is nothing to get excited about. If they are good enough they can win from pretty much anywhere. Sagace was able to win from 17 and Carroll House from 16: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXtvLAX7HejdDZwUXpLMngzNGdVbkkxV1lVbHoyTGc#gid=0

SEM October 2012

Camelot still looks a fine prospect for Arc Glory

Camelot still looks a fine prospect for Arc Glory

It was tactics not ability that got Camelot beat in the St Leger and three-year-olds have won the Arc 14 times since the northern hemisphere wfa allowance was raised to 8lb (11lb for fillies) for three-year-olds over a mile and a half in 1995. Camelot has the best chance of the 3yos and 3yos win this race.

His RPR of 128 is already good enough to see him placed in virtually any Arc.

Prior to 1995 it was a pretty even split between three-year-olds and older horses among winners of the Arc. In the period 1970 to 1994 , 12 three-year-olds and 13 older horses won the race.

We might have concluded the weight-for-age differential was about right (assuming we want to give three-year-olds a concession in championship races in the first place).

In 1995 the northern hemisphere allowance was raised to 8lb (11lb for fillies) for three-year-olds over a mile and a half.

Lammtarra took full advantage of the increased differential and there has been a veritable landslide of three-year-old winners getting in on the act since. No fewer than 14 three-year-olds have won since 1995 and just three older horses.

It is, of course, discouraging to those contemplating keeping the best horses in training at four and five if the premier middle-distance race in Europe is a virtual gimme for the three-year-olds.

This season the older horses dominate the Arc market. So if ever an older horse is to win it should be this season.

Nevertheless, don't be surprised if one of the three-year-olds (hopefully Camelot or perhaps Imperial Monarch or Masterstroke, who has been laid out for a back-end campaign, or perhaps Great Heavens, who needs to be supplemented) again manages to land the spoils.

Versatile Camelot to seize crown and restore belief in ultimate test

THE DOSAGE system comes into its own when analysing Group races that require a test of stamina. It also gives us an edge when there is scant form at the distance to go on and in situations where those taking part are still largely unknown quantities. As we have seen in the past, the St Leger presents an ideal opportunity to give the system an airing.

Winning criteria

The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 18 winners of the race is 1.08, with the ‘right types’ having a DI of about 1 or lower (the lower the DI the more stamina aptitude). Of these winners, the overwhelming majority satisfy this requirement – they comprise: Masked Marvel  (DI 0.68), Mastery (1.00), Conduit (0.76), Sixties Icon (1.00), Scorpion (1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (0.92), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73).

Although Rule Of Law defied these guidelines in 2004 with a DI of 2.11 and Arctic Cosmos had a higher than average DI of 1.77 when successful in 2010, the winner typically has a DI of 1 or lower together with a low or negative centre of distribution (CD).

The table shows the 11 remaining in this season’s final classic at the latest confirmation stage. As usual it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI.

2012 St Leger contenders

Horse                               Sire/dam sire                                    Profile                                 DI            CD

Imperial Monarch                  Galileo/Slip Anchor                         3-0-10-9-4 = 26                    0.44        -0.42

Chamonix                             Galileo/Darshaan                           3-0-10-5-2 = 20                    0.67        -0.15

Michelangelo                        Galileo/Darshaan                            3-0-12-5-2 = 22                    0.69        -0.14

Ursa Major                           Galileo/Shirley Heights                     5-1-14-6-4 = 30                    0.76        -0.10

Camelot                               Montjeu/Kingmambo                        6-1-17-8-0 = 32                    0.94        0.16

Thomas Chippendale             Dansili/Sadler’s Wells                      3-2-12-4-1 = 22                    1.00        0.09 

Encke                                  Kingmambo/Sinndar                        9-3-21-10-1 = 44                 1.05        0.20

Guarantee                            Authorized/Cadeaux Genereux         3-1-9-3-0 = 16                      1.13        0.25

Thought Worthy                    Dynaformer/Diesis                           6-2-23-1-2 = 34                    1.34        0.26

Dartford                               Giant’s Causeway/Kris S                  6-2-31-1-0 = 40                    1.42        0.33

Main Sequence                    Aldebaran/Pivotal                             8-3-11-1-1 = 24                    2.20        0.67

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Versatile

The anticipation ahead of this year’s race, which carries a record purse of £550,000, is intense with Camelot bidding to become the first colt since Nijinsky to secure horseracing’s elusive Holy Grail. The son of Montjeu has already won three classics this season and his credentials to become the first English Triple Crown winner since 1970 are persuasive. His DI of just below 1 suggests he comes into his own at distances at or beyond 12 furlongs and the fact that he won the 2,000 Guineas in fine style, almost counter to his natural stamina attributes, coming from off the pace and using his turn of foot to outperform his rivals, leaves us in no doubt of his ability to quicken. His chances at this longer trip are not compromised by his Guineas success but rather enhanced. As we said in our Derby preview, Camelot is a broad spectrum horse showing a good spread of points in his profile and the type that can show off his versatility by winning over a range of distances. Aidan O’Brien has expressed his reservations about “pushing the boat out” in terms of distance. He need not worry, the Dosage suggests that this test will not prove beyond him and he will again take a world of beating.

It is ironic that the one we identified before the Derby as a St Leger prospect is Camelot’s own stablemate Imperial Monarch. The colt has subsequently been successful at 12 furlongs in the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp and appears at the head of our table for stamina aptitude (a position occupied by Masked Marvel last season), being a Galileo/Slip Anchor cross. He is liable to show pronounced stamina attributes and looks a prime St Leger type. He is relatively unexposed and without the presence of his illustrious stablemate would have been an irresistible bet. But if the point of running Camelot in this is to secure the coveted Triple Crown, Ballydoyle will hardly be busting a gut to get him beat within its own ranks. Imperial Monarch’s role looks to be a supporting one for Camelot.

O’Brien also has the unexposed Chamonix, a 12-length maiden winner at 14 furlongs, engaged at the time of writing. The colt has Darshaan as his damsire and is very much the type you would expect to see contest this race.

If successful in his assault on Town Moor O’Brien will become will become the first trainer to win all five English classics in a season.

Clarehaven challenge

It seems logical that the most potent threat to the crown being snatched from the heir apparent will come from outside Ballydoyle rather than from within. John Gosden, who has trained three of the past five winners of this race, including the last two, still holds a strong albeit depleted hand after the defections of Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens and decisive Newmarket scorer Shantaram.

Even without these Thought Worthy and Michelangelo pose a credible dual threat. The George Strawbridge-owned Great Voltigeur victor and Derby fourth Thought Worthy is a brother to 2007 St Leger winner Lucarno (who was also fourth in the Derby), by Dynaformer out of the Diesis mare Vignette. Although clearly the right type to do well here he was comprehensively beaten by Camelot at Epsom and is unlikely to improve enough at this trip to worry the favourite. There are others above him in our table with more convincing claims.

Michelangelo, one of four sons of Galileo and two Galileo/Darshaan crosses still in this year’s race, is one such contender from the Gosden yard. A Listed winner at 11 furlongs he looks likely to improve again for a step up in trip, although he also looks vulnerable to colts that are able to quicken in the style of Camelot.

Gosden’s Dartford has a single point in the stamina wing of his Dosage profile and looks set for pacemaker duties.

Thomas Chippendale, trained by Sir Henry Cecil, is primed to take his chance but is another that is not expected to improve enough at the trip to bother the favourite.

Godolphin has won five St Legers and is represented by Encke from Mahmood Al Zarooni’s yard. The Kingmambo colt had to settle for third in the Great Voltigeur behind Thought Worthy and Main Sequence. He derives good stamina from his dam side and has some chance of reversing form with these at this longer trip.

Derby and Great Voltigeur Stakes runner up Main Sequence is ready to take his chance for trainer David Lanigan. However, the Aldebaran colt appears at the foot of our table and others here appear more suited to this stamina test. The Prix Niel is also under consideration, which could be the better option.

The William Haggas-trained Guarantee only made his racecourse debut in June but has since made up for lost time with three straight wins culminating in the Melrose Stakes. The colt has already won at 14 furlongs and Haggas has given son of Authorized the green light to take on Camelot and co after impressing in recent work.

Ursa Major, winner of four of his six appearances, took the Group 3 Irish St Leger trial over 14 furlongs at the Curragh in good style for trainer Thomas Carmody. The St Leger trip will prove no problem for the son of Galileo out of a Shirley Heights mare, with 10 points in the stamina wing of his Dosage profile.

Speed/stamina balance

The average DI for the past 18 winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for the race below 1.

Dosage of previous St Leger winners

Year     Horse                                       DI                     CD

2011     Masked Marvel                          0.68                  -0.13

2010     Arctic Cosmos                           1.77                  +0.50

2009     Mastery                                    1.00                    0.00

2008     Conduit                                     0.76                  -0.09

2007     Lucarno                                     1.34                  +0.26

2006     Sixties Icon                               1.00                  +0.23

2005     Scorpion                                   1.00                  +0.19

2004     Rule Of Law                               2.11                  +0.17

2003     Brian Boru                                 1.05                  +0.18

2002     Bollin Eric                                 1.00                  +0.14

2001     Milan                                        0.77                  -0.05

2000     Millenary                                   0.83                  +0.02

1999     Mutafaweq                                 1.07                  +0.14

1998     Nedawi                                      0.92                  +0.09

1997     Silver Patriarch                          1.00                  +0.03

1996     Shantou                                    1.67                  +0.38

1995     Classic Cliché                           0.83                    0.00

1994     Moonax                                     0.73                  -0.04

                                                            ____

Average Dosage index            =          1.08

Shortlist

With regard to stamina suitability the following look best placed: Imperial Monarch (DI 0.44), Chamonix (0.67), Michelangelo (0.69), Ursa Major (0.76) and Camelot (0.94).

Conclusion

Of these CAMELOT must take the beating on all known form. Imperial Monarch and Chamonix score highly in terms of stamina aptitude, but if we assume that Camelot’s stablemates are there to support his Triple Crown bid rather than muddy the waters it is sensible to see the main threat coming from outside Ballydoyle. Michelangelo and Ursa Major could be best placed in terms of stamina aptitude to take advantage of any chinks in Camelot’s armour. Of the remainder Thought Worthy and Encke are decent and have proven resolute at 12 furlongs and Guarantee is fast improving and has already won at the trip.

Verdict:

1)     Camelot

2)     Michelangelo

3)     Imperial Monarch

4)     Ursa Major

5)     Guarantee

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.