Long Run has the class and stamina to reclaim Kempton crown

NICKY HENDERSON looks set to saddle a previous winner and a runner-up of the King George VI Chase in Long Run and Riverside Theatre, as well as his Champion Chase winner Finian’s Rainbow, at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Long Run ran to an RPR of 181 when beating his stablemate Riverside Theatre in the King George the time before last. He ran to the same mark when beating Denman in the Gold Cup. He then reproduced the same mark when runner up to Kauto Star in this last year and hit the same mark again at Newbury in February (that’s four 181s). His last two races have been in the low 170s, which is still as good as anything he’ll face this year. In other words, his opponents need to improve to beat Long Run’s worst performance of his past seven.

Long Run is not showing the signs of terminal decline that some would have us believe. In fact he’s been remarkably consistent in hitting his high marks in his main targets. He is also often criticised for his jumping, but has never fallen or unseated in 15 chase appearances all of which he has finished in the frame.

Long Run should be able to improve on his seasonal reappearance and hit something in the high 170s, which means he has an excellent chance of reclaiming this. A decent pace will also bring his superior stamina into play.

Of the others, Cue Card is improving, but in comparative terms he has run to a best of 170 and may not fully get the trip. So unless he improves another half a stone over three miles (which seems unlikely) he shouldn’t be troubling the favourite.

Sizing Europe and Sir Des Champs look set to stay in Ireland, while Grands Crus must step up dramatically on his effort in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, where he went out like a light, and recover from a subsequent breathing operation.

Riverside Theatre seems underrated by many. I had my biggest place bet of the NH season on him when runner-up in this splitting Long Run and Kauto Star and he has won a sequence of three Grade 1s since then, including a cracking renewal of the Ryanair Chase at the Festival.

Conclusion

Long Run looks value at anything bigger than about 2/1 to me, with Riverside Theatre again putting it up to him. Sir Des Champs, Cue Card and Finian’s Rainbow look the best of the remainder and at least one of these is doubtful. The rest have too many questions marks hanging over them, not least being good enough for this in the first place.

    1)  Long Run

    2)  Riverside Theatre

    3) Cue Card
                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                               c Steve Miller Dec 2012

Arc: Bite the bullet and side with the three-year-olds (again)

Arc: Bite the bullet and side with the three-year-olds (again)

It’s tricky this year. The two older horses I keep coming back to are St Nicholas Abbey and Orfevre, but I think I’m going to let both of these go.

According to the Racing Post there will be no mention of Good in the going come Sunday. It is Soft now and expected to be between Soft and Very Soft on the day.

Three-year-olds win this race since the allowance was raised in 1995 (the score is 14-3 in favour of the 3yos).

Although there are fewer 3yos than older horses running this year I reckon they have the advantage and Camelot, Saonois, Masterstroke and Great Heavens form a neat sub-set. Saonois and Masterstoke seem to quicken very well, while Camelot and Great Heavens tend to build momentum and then go clear. I think one of these four will win and nominate Camelot and Saonois as most likely. I can see why people want to be with Orfevre, he’s just about the best as things stand, but there’s not much in it for me and I think a couple of these three-year-olds will improve past him.

I’ll stake weighted win vs place bets on these four.

By opposing the older horses I will ensure decent profit or heavy loss. It’s a risk I’m prepared to take.

The draw is nothing to get excited about. If they are good enough they can win from pretty much anywhere. Sagace was able to win from 17 and Carroll House from 16: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXtvLAX7HejdDZwUXpLMngzNGdVbkkxV1lVbHoyTGc#gid=0

SEM October 2012

Camelot still looks a fine prospect for Arc Glory

Camelot still looks a fine prospect for Arc Glory

It was tactics not ability that got Camelot beat in the St Leger and three-year-olds have won the Arc 14 times since the northern hemisphere wfa allowance was raised to 8lb (11lb for fillies) for three-year-olds over a mile and a half in 1995. Camelot has the best chance of the 3yos and 3yos win this race.

His RPR of 128 is already good enough to see him placed in virtually any Arc.

Prior to 1995 it was a pretty even split between three-year-olds and older horses among winners of the Arc. In the period 1970 to 1994 , 12 three-year-olds and 13 older horses won the race.

We might have concluded the weight-for-age differential was about right (assuming we want to give three-year-olds a concession in championship races in the first place).

In 1995 the northern hemisphere allowance was raised to 8lb (11lb for fillies) for three-year-olds over a mile and a half.

Lammtarra took full advantage of the increased differential and there has been a veritable landslide of three-year-old winners getting in on the act since. No fewer than 14 three-year-olds have won since 1995 and just three older horses.

It is, of course, discouraging to those contemplating keeping the best horses in training at four and five if the premier middle-distance race in Europe is a virtual gimme for the three-year-olds.

This season the older horses dominate the Arc market. So if ever an older horse is to win it should be this season.

Nevertheless, don't be surprised if one of the three-year-olds (hopefully Camelot or perhaps Imperial Monarch or Masterstroke, who has been laid out for a back-end campaign, or perhaps Great Heavens, who needs to be supplemented) again manages to land the spoils.

Versatile Camelot to seize crown and restore belief in ultimate test

THE DOSAGE system comes into its own when analysing Group races that require a test of stamina. It also gives us an edge when there is scant form at the distance to go on and in situations where those taking part are still largely unknown quantities. As we have seen in the past, the St Leger presents an ideal opportunity to give the system an airing.

Winning criteria

The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 18 winners of the race is 1.08, with the ‘right types’ having a DI of about 1 or lower (the lower the DI the more stamina aptitude). Of these winners, the overwhelming majority satisfy this requirement – they comprise: Masked Marvel  (DI 0.68), Mastery (1.00), Conduit (0.76), Sixties Icon (1.00), Scorpion (1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (0.92), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73).

Although Rule Of Law defied these guidelines in 2004 with a DI of 2.11 and Arctic Cosmos had a higher than average DI of 1.77 when successful in 2010, the winner typically has a DI of 1 or lower together with a low or negative centre of distribution (CD).

The table shows the 11 remaining in this season’s final classic at the latest confirmation stage. As usual it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI.

2012 St Leger contenders

Horse                               Sire/dam sire                                    Profile                                 DI            CD

Imperial Monarch                  Galileo/Slip Anchor                         3-0-10-9-4 = 26                    0.44        -0.42

Chamonix                             Galileo/Darshaan                           3-0-10-5-2 = 20                    0.67        -0.15

Michelangelo                        Galileo/Darshaan                            3-0-12-5-2 = 22                    0.69        -0.14

Ursa Major                           Galileo/Shirley Heights                     5-1-14-6-4 = 30                    0.76        -0.10

Camelot                               Montjeu/Kingmambo                        6-1-17-8-0 = 32                    0.94        0.16

Thomas Chippendale             Dansili/Sadler’s Wells                      3-2-12-4-1 = 22                    1.00        0.09 

Encke                                  Kingmambo/Sinndar                        9-3-21-10-1 = 44                 1.05        0.20

Guarantee                            Authorized/Cadeaux Genereux         3-1-9-3-0 = 16                      1.13        0.25

Thought Worthy                    Dynaformer/Diesis                           6-2-23-1-2 = 34                    1.34        0.26

Dartford                               Giant’s Causeway/Kris S                  6-2-31-1-0 = 40                    1.42        0.33

Main Sequence                    Aldebaran/Pivotal                             8-3-11-1-1 = 24                    2.20        0.67

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Versatile

The anticipation ahead of this year’s race, which carries a record purse of £550,000, is intense with Camelot bidding to become the first colt since Nijinsky to secure horseracing’s elusive Holy Grail. The son of Montjeu has already won three classics this season and his credentials to become the first English Triple Crown winner since 1970 are persuasive. His DI of just below 1 suggests he comes into his own at distances at or beyond 12 furlongs and the fact that he won the 2,000 Guineas in fine style, almost counter to his natural stamina attributes, coming from off the pace and using his turn of foot to outperform his rivals, leaves us in no doubt of his ability to quicken. His chances at this longer trip are not compromised by his Guineas success but rather enhanced. As we said in our Derby preview, Camelot is a broad spectrum horse showing a good spread of points in his profile and the type that can show off his versatility by winning over a range of distances. Aidan O’Brien has expressed his reservations about “pushing the boat out” in terms of distance. He need not worry, the Dosage suggests that this test will not prove beyond him and he will again take a world of beating.

It is ironic that the one we identified before the Derby as a St Leger prospect is Camelot’s own stablemate Imperial Monarch. The colt has subsequently been successful at 12 furlongs in the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp and appears at the head of our table for stamina aptitude (a position occupied by Masked Marvel last season), being a Galileo/Slip Anchor cross. He is liable to show pronounced stamina attributes and looks a prime St Leger type. He is relatively unexposed and without the presence of his illustrious stablemate would have been an irresistible bet. But if the point of running Camelot in this is to secure the coveted Triple Crown, Ballydoyle will hardly be busting a gut to get him beat within its own ranks. Imperial Monarch’s role looks to be a supporting one for Camelot.

O’Brien also has the unexposed Chamonix, a 12-length maiden winner at 14 furlongs, engaged at the time of writing. The colt has Darshaan as his damsire and is very much the type you would expect to see contest this race.

If successful in his assault on Town Moor O’Brien will become will become the first trainer to win all five English classics in a season.

Clarehaven challenge

It seems logical that the most potent threat to the crown being snatched from the heir apparent will come from outside Ballydoyle rather than from within. John Gosden, who has trained three of the past five winners of this race, including the last two, still holds a strong albeit depleted hand after the defections of Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens and decisive Newmarket scorer Shantaram.

Even without these Thought Worthy and Michelangelo pose a credible dual threat. The George Strawbridge-owned Great Voltigeur victor and Derby fourth Thought Worthy is a brother to 2007 St Leger winner Lucarno (who was also fourth in the Derby), by Dynaformer out of the Diesis mare Vignette. Although clearly the right type to do well here he was comprehensively beaten by Camelot at Epsom and is unlikely to improve enough at this trip to worry the favourite. There are others above him in our table with more convincing claims.

Michelangelo, one of four sons of Galileo and two Galileo/Darshaan crosses still in this year’s race, is one such contender from the Gosden yard. A Listed winner at 11 furlongs he looks likely to improve again for a step up in trip, although he also looks vulnerable to colts that are able to quicken in the style of Camelot.

Gosden’s Dartford has a single point in the stamina wing of his Dosage profile and looks set for pacemaker duties.

Thomas Chippendale, trained by Sir Henry Cecil, is primed to take his chance but is another that is not expected to improve enough at the trip to bother the favourite.

Godolphin has won five St Legers and is represented by Encke from Mahmood Al Zarooni’s yard. The Kingmambo colt had to settle for third in the Great Voltigeur behind Thought Worthy and Main Sequence. He derives good stamina from his dam side and has some chance of reversing form with these at this longer trip.

Derby and Great Voltigeur Stakes runner up Main Sequence is ready to take his chance for trainer David Lanigan. However, the Aldebaran colt appears at the foot of our table and others here appear more suited to this stamina test. The Prix Niel is also under consideration, which could be the better option.

The William Haggas-trained Guarantee only made his racecourse debut in June but has since made up for lost time with three straight wins culminating in the Melrose Stakes. The colt has already won at 14 furlongs and Haggas has given son of Authorized the green light to take on Camelot and co after impressing in recent work.

Ursa Major, winner of four of his six appearances, took the Group 3 Irish St Leger trial over 14 furlongs at the Curragh in good style for trainer Thomas Carmody. The St Leger trip will prove no problem for the son of Galileo out of a Shirley Heights mare, with 10 points in the stamina wing of his Dosage profile.

Speed/stamina balance

The average DI for the past 18 winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for the race below 1.

Dosage of previous St Leger winners

Year     Horse                                       DI                     CD

2011     Masked Marvel                          0.68                  -0.13

2010     Arctic Cosmos                           1.77                  +0.50

2009     Mastery                                    1.00                    0.00

2008     Conduit                                     0.76                  -0.09

2007     Lucarno                                     1.34                  +0.26

2006     Sixties Icon                               1.00                  +0.23

2005     Scorpion                                   1.00                  +0.19

2004     Rule Of Law                               2.11                  +0.17

2003     Brian Boru                                 1.05                  +0.18

2002     Bollin Eric                                 1.00                  +0.14

2001     Milan                                        0.77                  -0.05

2000     Millenary                                   0.83                  +0.02

1999     Mutafaweq                                 1.07                  +0.14

1998     Nedawi                                      0.92                  +0.09

1997     Silver Patriarch                          1.00                  +0.03

1996     Shantou                                    1.67                  +0.38

1995     Classic Cliché                           0.83                    0.00

1994     Moonax                                     0.73                  -0.04

                                                            ____

Average Dosage index            =          1.08

Shortlist

With regard to stamina suitability the following look best placed: Imperial Monarch (DI 0.44), Chamonix (0.67), Michelangelo (0.69), Ursa Major (0.76) and Camelot (0.94).

Conclusion

Of these CAMELOT must take the beating on all known form. Imperial Monarch and Chamonix score highly in terms of stamina aptitude, but if we assume that Camelot’s stablemates are there to support his Triple Crown bid rather than muddy the waters it is sensible to see the main threat coming from outside Ballydoyle. Michelangelo and Ursa Major could be best placed in terms of stamina aptitude to take advantage of any chinks in Camelot’s armour. Of the remainder Thought Worthy and Encke are decent and have proven resolute at 12 furlongs and Guarantee is fast improving and has already won at the trip.

Verdict:

1)     Camelot

2)     Michelangelo

3)     Imperial Monarch

4)     Ursa Major

5)     Guarantee

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

Imperial Monarch’s chance to shine

SEVEN are left in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp on Saturday. Imperial Monarch takes part for Ireland with Main Sequence for England. Saint Baudolino, trained by Andre Fabre for Godolphin, Last Train, Hard Dream, Sir Jade and Albion complete the line up.

A good opportunity for Imperial Monarch to shine.

Accentuate the negative – Fame to outclass rivals in repeat Ascot test

Accentuate the negative – Fame to outclass rivals in repeat Ascot test

THE SONGWRITING partnership of Johnny Mercer/Harold Arlen once told us to “accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative,” but while the general application of this may be considered excellent advice, when it comes searching for a winner of the Ascot Gold Cup, using the Dosage system, we need to adopt opposite tactics and look for one with a negative (rather than positive) centre of distribution (CD).

The dream combination of a horse with the right sort of profile for such extreme distance that is also Group 1 calibre is relatively rare. Consequently it is common for horses that do make the grade to win the race more than once.

The table includes 12 of the possible 13 for this year’s renewal (Gulf Of Naples is excluded, see below). As usual it is organised with those showing the greatest stamina potential at the top, ranked in order of Dosage index (DI). Note that the top five also have negative CDs, indicating enhanced stamina aptitude.

2012 Ascot Gold Cup contenders

Horse                                     sire/dam sire                                       Profile                    DI            CD

Ibicenco                                 Shirocco/Rainbow Quest                   3-0-13-10-0 = 26 0.57        -0.15

Colour Vision                          Rainbow Quest/Monsun                    8-0-20-14-4 = 46 0.64        -0.13

Fame And Glory                     Montjeu/Shirley Heights                     3-1-14-6-4 = 28    0.65        -0.25

Opinion Poll                           Halling/Shirley Heights                       5-1-13-4-5 = 28    0.81        -0.11

Saddler’s Rock                       Sadler’s Wells/Groom Dancer            7-1-22-8-4 = 42    0.83        -0.02

Askar Tau                              Montjeu/Acatenango                          3-0-9-4-0 = 16      0.88        0.13

Overturn                                 Barathea/Kris                                    8-1-9-5-3 = 26      1.08        0.23

Memphis Tennessee              Hurricane Run/Cozzene                      2-2-9-2-1 = 16      1.13        0.13

Bridge Of Gold                       Giant’s Causeway/Doc’s Leader          2-1-24-0-1 = 28    1.15        0.11 

Caucus                                 Cape Cross/Sadler’s Wells                 4-7-11-4-0 = 26    1.74        0.42

Lacateno                               Green Tune/Acatenango                     6-0-6-2-0 = 14      1.80        0.71 

Nehaam                                 Nayef/Roi Danzig                              5-3-8-2-0 = 18      2.00        0.61

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

The right stuff

Last year’s Gold Cup winner Fame And Glory is bred on the same Montjeu/Shirley Heights cross as Prix Royal-Oak winner Montare and with a negative CD of -0.25 and a DI of below 1 he is perfectly placed in terms of stamina aptitude. Only Enzeli, Celeric and Double Trigger had more extreme CDs of the Gold Cup winners in recent years. As we confidently predicted, he won last season’s Gold Cup, but did so by running 10lb short of his best form. A reproduction or improvement on that would see him land the race for a second time at the age of six and maintain his sequence of Group 1 victories in each season he has raced.

Ormonde Stakes winner Memphis Tennessee looks like a back-up for Ballydoyle to Fame And Glory and his Dosage reading has him better suited to around a mile-and-a-half than distances above two miles. The Hardwicke Stakes would probably be a more appropriate target for the son of Hurricane Run.

Godolphin pair

The Mahmood Al Zarooni-trained Gold Cup runner-up and multiple Group 2 winner Opinion Poll, shares his damsire Shirley Heights with Fame And Glory and like Fame And Glory has a negative CD, indicating pronounced stamina attributes. The Halling entire also finished runner-up to Fame And Glory in the British Champions Long Distance Cup in October. Between these Ascot appearances he won the Goodwood Cup and Lonsdale Cup and was runner-up to Saddler’s Rock in the Doncaster Cup. Also a convincing winner of the Henry II Stakes on his latest appearance he goes into the race on a wave of credible form.

Godolphin has a second and apparently just as good string to its bow in the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Colour Vision. The four-year-old Rainbow Quest gelding showed improved form when beating the useful Red Cadeaux in the Sagaro Stakes on his reappearance this term. Both Colour Vision’s sire and damsire (Rainbow Quest and Monsun) are Classic/Solid chefs-de-race (chiefs of breed) and consequently the gelding has a particularly high concentration of 18 points in the stamina wing of his profile. He has already won at 18 furlongs and the step up to 20 furlongs will advantage him over and above the majority of those doing the same here.

The John Oxx trained four-year-old Saddler’s Rock improved for stepping up to 18 furlongs at Doncaster last term and is one of five in the race with a negative CD. The Sadler’s Wells colt is one of the least exposed of those lining up and he relishes a test of stamina. He perhaps rates the main danger to the favourite in a field of solid Gold Cup types.

The Montjeu gelding Askar Tau has been unable to make an impression in his three outings since winning the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last season, including when fifth in this last year. The Dosage marks him out as suited to a stamina test.

John Gosden could saddle two. The Nayef gelding Nehaam probably needs faster going than he is likely to get and is held by the main players here anyway. Chepstow maiden winner Caucus doesn’t look up to standard and both he and Nehaam appear in the bottom three in our table and are passed over for those with more suitable stamina profiles.

Ibicenco was runner-up to Opinion Poll in the Henry II Stakes for Luca Cumani. As with Colour Vision, the stallion Monsun (the most recently assigned chef-de-race, see: www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/monsun.htm) appears close up in the pedigree as a Classic/Solid stamina influence, helping this pair to fill two of the top slots in our table.

Donald McCain’s talented hurdler Overturn is also a decent Flat performer, finishing runner-up in this season’s Chester Cup, a race he won the year before. He has eight points in the stamina wing of his profile but his Dosage reading has him coming up a little short of the trip.

The Mark Johnston-trained Gulf Of Naples was placed in the same race at Chester. The Dosage is of little help, with just six points in his profile, which is inadequate for a meaningful reading and he is excluded from our table. Nevertheless, one of these six points appears in his Professional (extreme stamina) category. He has won good handicaps at two miles and is proven on soft going.

Two-mile Listed race winner in Germany Lacateno hasn’t raced beyond 16 furlongs and doesn’t look Group 1 class.

Negative centre of distribution

If (in crude terms) a Dosage index of 1.0 and a centre of distribution of zero is the blueprint for a Derby contender, for a potential Ascot Gold Cup winner we are looking for a DI of less than 1 and ideally a negative CD. Recent winners of the race conforming to this ideal are: Fame And Glory (DI 0.65, CD -0.25), Papineau (0.88, -0.04), Enzeli (0.54, -0.45), Celeric (0.00, -1.44), Double Trigger (0.21, -1.40) and Arcadian Heights (0.90, -0.05) – while Yeats (0.89, +0.08), Kayf Tara (0.90, +0.08) and Classic Cliché (0.84, 0.00) qualify in terms of DI and are very close to qualifying in respect of CD.

This is all the more striking when we consider that negative CD horses are far less common than those with positive CDs, which explains why horses are able to win the Gold Cup in years when there is no particular good example of this type of horse. We are blessed with five such examples in this year’s renewal, so the winner should truly be suited to an extreme stamina test.

Dosage of previous winners

Year                        horse                                   DI         CD

2011                       Fame And Glory                     0.65        -0.25

2010                       Rite Of Passage                     1.16        0.13

2006-09                  Yeats                                     0.89        0.08

2005                       Westerner                              1.53        0.25

2004                       Papineau                               0.88        -0.04

2003                       Mr Dinos                                1.59        0.32

2001-02                  Royal Rebel                            2.30        0.61

2000                       Kayf Tara                               0.90        0.08

1999                       Enzeli                                    0.54        -0.45

1998                       Kayf Tara                               0.90        0.08

1997                       Celeric                                   0.00        -1.44

Summary

To return to the corrupted song lyric in the headline, there are five in this year’s race with negative CDs and a DI of below 1: Ibicenco (DI 0.57, CD -0.15), Colour Vision (0.64, -0.13), Fame And Glory (0.65, -0.25), Opinion Poll (0.81, -0.11) and Saddler’s Rock (0.83, -0.02).

Of these Fame And Glory is tried and tested at Group 1 level and a previous winner of this race. The other negatives (in terms of CD): Saddler’s Rock, Colour Vision, Opinion Poll and Ibicenco are nominated to fight out the places.

Verdict

1)     Fame And Glory

2)     Saddler’s Rock

3)     Colour Vision

4)     Opinion Poll

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com

and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

                                                                                                                                c Steve Miller 2012

Impregnable Camelot has armoury to repel rivals at Derby trip

Steve Miller     Pedigree Pointers/Derby Dosage Special

Impregnable Camelot has armoury to repel rivals at Derby trip

HEAVY RAINFALL in April and May and resultant soft going has cast doubt on the form of several of the most significant trials for the Investec Derby. Where the form is lacking or inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to give us our edge.

Contenders for the Derby, as a rule of thumb, require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of around 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part. In addition to stamina suitability (to which the Dosage system confines itself) other factors will of course play their part – not least the ability to handle the track and the prevailing going and how good the individual is to begin with.

The accompanying table shows 11 of the 12 left in at the confirmation stage. Bonfire is excluded as his point’s total of just six is too low for an accurate reading. It is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI).

2012 Derby contenders

Colt                                        Sire/dam sire                                        Profile                                    DI            CD

Imperial Monarch                Galileo/Slip Anchor                             3-0-10-9-4 = 26                    0.44        -0.42

Father Of Science                Galileo/Darshaan                              4-0-11-5-2 = 22                    0.76        -0.05

Camelot                                Montjeu/Kingmambo                          6-1-17-8-0 = 32                    0.94        0.16

Cavaleiro                               Sir Percy/Alhaarth                                1-0-10-0-1 = 12                    1.00        0.00

Astrology                               Galileo/Dr Fong                                   4-0-10-4-0 = 18                    1.00        0.22

Thought Worthy                    Dynaformer/Diesis                              6-2-23-1-2 = 34                    1.34        0.26

Minimise Risk                      Galileo/Halo                                         8-1-17-4-0 = 30                    1.40        0.43

Rugged Cross                     Cape Cross/Soviet Star                     2-4-10-0-0 = 16                    2.20        0.50

Main Sequence                    Aldebaran/Pivotal                                8-3-11-1-1 = 24                    2.20        0.67

Mickdaam                             Dubawi/Be My Guest                          5-0-4-0-1 = 10                      2.33        0.80

Tower Rock                          Dylan Thomas/Mr Prospector           11-4-17-0-0 = 32                 2.76        0.81 

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Team Ballydoyle

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Camelot just can’t please some folk. He was doubted before the 2,000 Guineas (with some going as far as saying the son of Montjeu couldn’t win the spring classic) and was also damned with faint praise after winning the Guineas as the best of a mediocre bunch. The fact is he won the race in fine style, almost counter to his natural stamina attributes, coming from off the pace and using his turn of foot to outperform his rivals, from a high class natural miler in French Fifteen. I commented in my 2,000 Guineas preview that despite showing eight stamina points in his Dosage profile he also has sharper dam side influences and was just the Montjeu progeny type likely do very well in the Guineas. However, this does not compromise his chances at 12 furlongs. Indeed, Camelot is a broad spectrum horse showing a good spread of points in his profile and the type that that should manage to win over a range of distances. Everything about him suggests that he will make up into a fine middle-distance individual and he will take a world of beating here.

Camelot’s stablemate Imperial Monarch has already been successful at 10 furlongs and appears at the top of our table being a Galileo/Slip Anchor cross. He is liable to show pronounced stamina attributes at a mile-and-a-half and beyond and looks an ideal St Leger type. He has nevertheless also shown a decent turn of foot and can prove effective at 12 furlongs.

Wide margin Dee Stakes winner Astrology no doubt had his task made easier by the withdrawal of Bonfire due to the soft going, but made no bones about putting his field to the sword. He falls into a group that occupy a ‘sweet spot’ with regard to stamina aptitude for this race.

High Chaparral’s half brother Father Of Science is a Galileo/Darshaan cross, appearing near the top of our table, while Tower Rock, appearing at the bottom, completes Ballydoyle’s Epsom team as a likely pacemaker.

Dante a leading Epsom trial

SEVEN Dante winners have gone on to win the Derby since 1980 and four in the past eight years. Bonfire was a fine winner of this season’s renewal holding off a determined challenger. The Dosage isn’t much help to us here as Bonfire has a point’s total of just six, which is too low for an accurate reading. However, the Andrew Balding-trained colt shares his sire Manduro with Mandaean, so has a chance of staying despite the suspicion that he could prove more of a 10 furlong horse. Minimise Risk is also a possible runner for Balding and while the Galileo colt should be at home with the trip he looks to be short of sufficient ability at this level.

Thought Worthy (a full brother to Lucarno, who was fourth to Authorized in the 2007 Derby) got the better of Noble Mission (carrying a 5lb penalty) in a tight finish at Newmarket at Listed level over 10 furlongs, a race that also included Derby hopeful Rugged Cross. Thought Worthy can be expected to stay 12 furlongs, although there are concerns that the colt will be able to handle the undulations at Epsom. Rugged Cross scores no points in the stamina wing of his profile and may come up short.

The Richard Fahey-trained Chester Vase winner Mickdaam should not be inconvenienced by the trip, but others make more appeal. Paul Hanagan is set to take the ride.

The unbeaten Main Sequence won the Lingfield Derby Trial and is a credible contender. There are others with more appropriate stamina profiles however. Cavaleiro was placed behind Main Sequence for Marcus Tregoning at Lingfield. The Derby trip should play to his strengths and he has pleased in recent work.

Dosage Derby track record

The Dosage system helped us to select the winner and first four in 2008 and the winner and first five in 2007. New Approach was taken to outperform his earlier efforts at a mile over middle distances in 2008, while Authorized was the confident selection the year before that, conforming to a profile that was a virtual blueprint for the race.

Fame And Glory was our choice in 2009, also appearing to be an excellent candidate – as indeed he proved by taking the Irish Derby – but had to settle for runner-up spot at Epsom to a brilliant atypical winner in Sea The Stars.

Workforce had the sort of reading we might expect for the Derby in 2010 and Pour Moi was the confident selection to ruin the Queen’s day by putting race favourite Carlton House in his place last year.

Speed/stamina balance

The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a DI of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. However, the average DI for the past 10 winners is a little higher at 1.19 and those in a band between about DI 0.8 and 1.4 appear best suited to the requirements of the race (see table).

Dosage of previous 10 Derby winners

Year     Colt                              DI

2011     Pour Moi                       0.78

2010     Workforce                     1.44

2009     Sea The Stars               3.00

2008     New Approach               0.89

2007     Authorized*                   0.86*     (from 1.00)    

2006     Sir Percy                       0.54

2005     Motivator                       1.43

2004     North Light*                   1.13*     (from 1.60)

2003     Kris Kin*                       1.05*     (from 1.34)

2002     High Chaparral               0.82

Average                                   1.19

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

The winners who matched this requirement, of the past 10 winners are: Pour Moi (DI 0.78), Workforce (1.44), New Approach (0.89), Authorized (0.86), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05) and High Chaparral (0.82). The exceptional Sea The Stars is the outlier here – a colt with a DI of 3 would not normally be expected to last the Derby trip.

Shortlist

The best matches this year are: Camelot (DI 0.94), Cavaleiro (1.00), Astrology (1.00), Thought Worthy (1.34) and Minimise Risk (1.40).

Of those with realistic chances we are left with Camelot and Astrology and possibly Cavaleiro. We might add Imperial Monarch who appears at the head of our table for stamina aptitude but has also shown a turn of foot and the excluded Bonfire, for winning the Dante.

Camelot is preferred with all of the necessary attributes required for victory. His main opposition is likely to come from his own stablemates Imperial Monarch and Astrology and possibly also from Bonfire, despite some doubt about that one fully seeing out the trip.

Verdict

1)     Camelot

2)     Imperial Monarch

3)     Bonfire

4)     Astrology

5)     Cavaleiro

6)     Main Sequence

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

c Steve Miller 2012