Impregnable Camelot has armoury to repel rivals at Derby trip

Steve Miller     Pedigree Pointers/Derby Dosage Special

Impregnable Camelot has armoury to repel rivals at Derby trip

HEAVY RAINFALL in April and May and resultant soft going has cast doubt on the form of several of the most significant trials for the Investec Derby. Where the form is lacking or inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to give us our edge.

Contenders for the Derby, as a rule of thumb, require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of around 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part. In addition to stamina suitability (to which the Dosage system confines itself) other factors will of course play their part – not least the ability to handle the track and the prevailing going and how good the individual is to begin with.

The accompanying table shows 11 of the 12 left in at the confirmation stage. Bonfire is excluded as his point’s total of just six is too low for an accurate reading. It is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI).

2012 Derby contenders

Colt                                        Sire/dam sire                                        Profile                                    DI            CD

Imperial Monarch                Galileo/Slip Anchor                             3-0-10-9-4 = 26                    0.44        -0.42

Father Of Science                Galileo/Darshaan                              4-0-11-5-2 = 22                    0.76        -0.05

Camelot                                Montjeu/Kingmambo                          6-1-17-8-0 = 32                    0.94        0.16

Cavaleiro                               Sir Percy/Alhaarth                                1-0-10-0-1 = 12                    1.00        0.00

Astrology                               Galileo/Dr Fong                                   4-0-10-4-0 = 18                    1.00        0.22

Thought Worthy                    Dynaformer/Diesis                              6-2-23-1-2 = 34                    1.34        0.26

Minimise Risk                      Galileo/Halo                                         8-1-17-4-0 = 30                    1.40        0.43

Rugged Cross                     Cape Cross/Soviet Star                     2-4-10-0-0 = 16                    2.20        0.50

Main Sequence                    Aldebaran/Pivotal                                8-3-11-1-1 = 24                    2.20        0.67

Mickdaam                             Dubawi/Be My Guest                          5-0-4-0-1 = 10                      2.33        0.80

Tower Rock                          Dylan Thomas/Mr Prospector           11-4-17-0-0 = 32                 2.76        0.81 

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Team Ballydoyle

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Camelot just can’t please some folk. He was doubted before the 2,000 Guineas (with some going as far as saying the son of Montjeu couldn’t win the spring classic) and was also damned with faint praise after winning the Guineas as the best of a mediocre bunch. The fact is he won the race in fine style, almost counter to his natural stamina attributes, coming from off the pace and using his turn of foot to outperform his rivals, from a high class natural miler in French Fifteen. I commented in my 2,000 Guineas preview that despite showing eight stamina points in his Dosage profile he also has sharper dam side influences and was just the Montjeu progeny type likely do very well in the Guineas. However, this does not compromise his chances at 12 furlongs. Indeed, Camelot is a broad spectrum horse showing a good spread of points in his profile and the type that that should manage to win over a range of distances. Everything about him suggests that he will make up into a fine middle-distance individual and he will take a world of beating here.

Camelot’s stablemate Imperial Monarch has already been successful at 10 furlongs and appears at the top of our table being a Galileo/Slip Anchor cross. He is liable to show pronounced stamina attributes at a mile-and-a-half and beyond and looks an ideal St Leger type. He has nevertheless also shown a decent turn of foot and can prove effective at 12 furlongs.

Wide margin Dee Stakes winner Astrology no doubt had his task made easier by the withdrawal of Bonfire due to the soft going, but made no bones about putting his field to the sword. He falls into a group that occupy a ‘sweet spot’ with regard to stamina aptitude for this race.

High Chaparral’s half brother Father Of Science is a Galileo/Darshaan cross, appearing near the top of our table, while Tower Rock, appearing at the bottom, completes Ballydoyle’s Epsom team as a likely pacemaker.

Dante a leading Epsom trial

SEVEN Dante winners have gone on to win the Derby since 1980 and four in the past eight years. Bonfire was a fine winner of this season’s renewal holding off a determined challenger. The Dosage isn’t much help to us here as Bonfire has a point’s total of just six, which is too low for an accurate reading. However, the Andrew Balding-trained colt shares his sire Manduro with Mandaean, so has a chance of staying despite the suspicion that he could prove more of a 10 furlong horse. Minimise Risk is also a possible runner for Balding and while the Galileo colt should be at home with the trip he looks to be short of sufficient ability at this level.

Thought Worthy (a full brother to Lucarno, who was fourth to Authorized in the 2007 Derby) got the better of Noble Mission (carrying a 5lb penalty) in a tight finish at Newmarket at Listed level over 10 furlongs, a race that also included Derby hopeful Rugged Cross. Thought Worthy can be expected to stay 12 furlongs, although there are concerns that the colt will be able to handle the undulations at Epsom. Rugged Cross scores no points in the stamina wing of his profile and may come up short.

The Richard Fahey-trained Chester Vase winner Mickdaam should not be inconvenienced by the trip, but others make more appeal. Paul Hanagan is set to take the ride.

The unbeaten Main Sequence won the Lingfield Derby Trial and is a credible contender. There are others with more appropriate stamina profiles however. Cavaleiro was placed behind Main Sequence for Marcus Tregoning at Lingfield. The Derby trip should play to his strengths and he has pleased in recent work.

Dosage Derby track record

The Dosage system helped us to select the winner and first four in 2008 and the winner and first five in 2007. New Approach was taken to outperform his earlier efforts at a mile over middle distances in 2008, while Authorized was the confident selection the year before that, conforming to a profile that was a virtual blueprint for the race.

Fame And Glory was our choice in 2009, also appearing to be an excellent candidate – as indeed he proved by taking the Irish Derby – but had to settle for runner-up spot at Epsom to a brilliant atypical winner in Sea The Stars.

Workforce had the sort of reading we might expect for the Derby in 2010 and Pour Moi was the confident selection to ruin the Queen’s day by putting race favourite Carlton House in his place last year.

Speed/stamina balance

The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a DI of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. However, the average DI for the past 10 winners is a little higher at 1.19 and those in a band between about DI 0.8 and 1.4 appear best suited to the requirements of the race (see table).

Dosage of previous 10 Derby winners

Year     Colt                              DI

2011     Pour Moi                       0.78

2010     Workforce                     1.44

2009     Sea The Stars               3.00

2008     New Approach               0.89

2007     Authorized*                   0.86*     (from 1.00)    

2006     Sir Percy                       0.54

2005     Motivator                       1.43

2004     North Light*                   1.13*     (from 1.60)

2003     Kris Kin*                       1.05*     (from 1.34)

2002     High Chaparral               0.82

Average                                   1.19

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

The winners who matched this requirement, of the past 10 winners are: Pour Moi (DI 0.78), Workforce (1.44), New Approach (0.89), Authorized (0.86), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05) and High Chaparral (0.82). The exceptional Sea The Stars is the outlier here – a colt with a DI of 3 would not normally be expected to last the Derby trip.

Shortlist

The best matches this year are: Camelot (DI 0.94), Cavaleiro (1.00), Astrology (1.00), Thought Worthy (1.34) and Minimise Risk (1.40).

Of those with realistic chances we are left with Camelot and Astrology and possibly Cavaleiro. We might add Imperial Monarch who appears at the head of our table for stamina aptitude but has also shown a turn of foot and the excluded Bonfire, for winning the Dante.

Camelot is preferred with all of the necessary attributes required for victory. His main opposition is likely to come from his own stablemates Imperial Monarch and Astrology and possibly also from Bonfire, despite some doubt about that one fully seeing out the trip.

Verdict

1)     Camelot

2)     Imperial Monarch

3)     Bonfire

4)     Astrology

5)     Cavaleiro

6)     Main Sequence

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

c Steve Miller 2012