French Fifteen and Born To Sea well suited to the balance of speed and stamina required for the Rowley Mile
French pretender threatens to undo classy Camelot
See also: http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2012/2012_2000_guineas_preview.htm
As the new Flat season changes up into top gear for the spring classics a new generation of three-year-olds prepare to lock horns over Newmarket’s Rowley Mile. The 2,000 Guineas poses the usual conundrums of brimming potential against often scant form. Where the form is inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to identify those with the right blend of speed and stamina for the race.
As the new Flat season changes up into top gear for the spring classics a new generation of three-year-olds prepare to lock horns over Newmarket’s Rowley Mile. The 2,000 Guineas poses the usual conundrums of brimming potential against often scant form. Where the form is inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to identify those with the right blend of speed and stamina for the race.
The table shows 20 of the 22 left in at the confirmation stage (Saigon and the supplemented Talwar are excluded as their points totals are too low for an accurate reading). As usual, those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI). Those with the best chances will have an optimum blend of speed and stamina.
2,000 Guineas contenders
Horse Sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Mandaean Manduro/Darshaan 2-0-6-1-3 = 12 0.71 -0.25
Caspar Netscher Dutch Art/Singspiel 2-0-8-4-0 = 14 0.75 0.00
Parish Hall Teofilo/Montjeu 2-1-8-5-0 = 16 0.78 0.00
Ptolemaic Excellent Art/Rainbow Quest 4-1-15-7-1 = 28 0.81 0.00
Camelot Montjeu/Kingmambo 6-1-17-8-0 = 32 0.94 0.16
Hermival Dubawi/Persian Bold 2-1-2-2-1 = 8 1.00 0.13
Boomerang Bob Aussie Rules/Cozzene 1-4-11-0-4 = 20 1.11 -0.10
Furner’s Green Dylan Thomas/Rainbow Quest 5-2-18-5-0 = 30 1.14 0.23
Power Oasis Dream/Inchinor 2-3-10-3-0 = 18 1.25 0.22
Coupe De Ville Clodovil/Fantastic Light 2-3-8-1-2 = 16 1.29 0.13
Mighty Ambition Street Cry/Sadler’s Wells 7-1-11-4-1 = 24 1.29 0.38
Trumpet Major Arakan/Cape Cross 2-2-14-0-0 = 18 1.57 0.33
Red Duke Hard Spun/Gone West 6-5-16-1-0 = 28 2.11 0.57
Bronterre Oasis Dream/Royal Academy 6-7-10-3-0 = 26 2.25 0.62
Redact Strategic Prince/Fairy King 3-1-6-0-0 = 10 2.33 0.70
Abtaal Rock Hard Ten/Valid Appeal 8-2-11-1-0 = 22 2.38 0.77
French Fifteen Turtle Bowl/Ashkalani 3-2-7-0-0 = 12 2.43 0.67
Fencing Street Cry/Inchinor 6-1-6-0-1 = 14 2.50 0.79
Top Offer Dansili/Zafonic 4-3-9-0-0 = 16 2.56 0.69
Born To Sea Invincible Spirit/Miswaki 6-3-9-0-0 = 18 3.00 0.83
Parish Hall, trained by Jim Bolger in Ireland, completed his two-year-old season in fine form as runner-up to Dragon Pulse in the Group 2 EBF Futurity Stakes, followed by Group 1 success in the Dewhurst at odds of 20/1. The Teofilo colt has Montjeu as his damsire and features close to the top of our stamina aptitude table. Although he has been trained for the 2,000 Guineas whatever he does at a mile he is likely to improve on at middle distances. It could prove worth backing him ante-post for the Derby on the expectation of a good showing here.
Power had a highly successful two-year-old season finishing in the first two in all six of his starts, winning the Group 1 National Stakes in Ireland as well as the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and was only just touched off in the Phoenix Stakes and the Dewhurst. The Oasis Dream colt will have no problem at the trip.
Camelot was unbeaten in his two starts last term, taking the Racing Post Trophy in eye-catching style, giving his sire Montjeu his fourth success in the race. Despite showing eight stamina points in his Dosage profile he also has sharper influences with Kingmambo as his dam sire and is the sort of horse that could do very well here. He can also be expected to progress at middle distances and given the likely going it may take a horse that truly gets further than a mile to take this. Connections of Camelot (i.e. the breeding operation Coolmore) will be eager to win a Classic/Group 1 over a mile with a son of Montjeu (following the stallion’s death at the end of March this year).
Furner’s Green, winner of the Group 3 Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial on his latest start, after finishing half a length runner-up to Light Heavy on his reappearance, could also make the line up for Ballydoyle.
Hannon bid
The Richard Hannon-trained Trumpet Major was a decisive winner of the Craven Stakes on his reappearance this term from stablemate Crius, giving 3lb to his field, and looks worth his place in the line up. The Arakan colt won the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last term and finished a close up fifth in the Dewhurst. While he didn’t handle soft going in the Solario Stakes at Sandown he coped with the Craven going, but a return to faster conditions should see him to even better effect.
Stablemate Bronterre won his maiden and a Listed race last term before finishing about a length fourth in a closely contested Dewhurst, a neck ahead of Trumpet Major. The Oasis Dream colt disappointed on his reappearance when pulling in the Greenham to finish third to Caspar Netscher. Coupe De Ville and Redact are also still in the mix for Hannon and are in the zone to be effective at the trip, but have something to find on form.
The Greenham winner Caspar Netscher was a Group 2 winner last year of the Gimcrack (York) and the Mill Reef Stakes (Newbury) and was placed at that level behind Harbour Watch in the Richmond Stakes. A couple of Group 1 attempts at Newmarket in the Middle Park and at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile proved unsuccessful. The Dutch Art colt is exposed, winning four and being placed in four from 11 starts. He features close to the top of our stamina aptitude table and should prove best at distances beyond a mile.
Born To Sea, a three-parts brother to 2,000 Guineas winner Sea The Stars, landed his debut, a Listed race at the Curragh, convincingly for trainer John Oxx. He was subsequently beaten by Nephrite at Leopardstown, but was found to be lame after the run through injury sustained leaving the stalls. He is reportedly “fit and forward” and lines up in the Guineas without need of a preparatory outing. The Invincible Spirit colt is likely to excel at a mile and has good influences for speed.
Top Offer won his only start last season, a 15-runner Newbury maiden, impressively for owner Khalid Abdullah and trainer Roger Charlton. He was pulled out of the Greenham on his intended reappearance due to soft going. Largely an unknown quantity but his Dosage reading marks him out as a miler with speed influences.
Fencing, the winner of a Listed race at Newbury for John Gosden, was no threat when running third to Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster.
Musselburgh maiden winner Ptolemaic, for trainer Bryan Smart, was well beaten into fourth on his reappearance in the Craven behind Trumpet Major and there seems no good reason why he should reverse form with that one on 3lb worse terms.
Maiden winner Boomerang Bob has finished runner-up three times at Group level, splitting Caspar Netscher and Bronterre on his latest start in the Greenham.
Group 1 winner Mandaean has moved from Andre Fabre to Mahmood Al Zarooni. He is still in the Guineas and will also be aimed at the Dante with a view to running in the Derby, which according to his Dosage reading is a more appropriate target (he heads our table). Craven disappointment Mighty Ambition could also represent Godolphin.
Red Duke was narrowly successful in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket last term, followed by decent efforts in Group company at Goodwood and Doncaster. The colt finished eighth of nine in the Dewhurst, when racing wide.
Saigon was a Listed winner for James Toller last term. Subsequent highly tried but unsuccessful in five attempts at Group level. The Royal Applause colt has a Dosage points total of just four which is too low for a meaningful reading and is excluded from our table. He has recently reportedly been recovering from a foot abscess, but is apparently on course to line up.
Jeremy Noseda’s Talwar, who won a Listed race at Lingfield on his reappearance this season and beat Trumpet Major in a Listed race at Ascot last season, has been supplemented. With a points total of just two he is also excluded from our table.
French challenge
Mikel Delzangles, who trained 2,000 Guineas winner Makfi, still has Hermival engaged with Dragon Pulse coming out at the confirmation stage. Hermival won his only start last term and ran a pleasing race on his reappearance when third in the Prix Djebel.
The Nicolas Clement-trained French Fifteen, winner of the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint Cloud last term, advertised his claims for the Guineas by landing the Prix Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte on his reappearance at the beginning of April, by a neck from Abtaal with Hermival in third. The Turtle Bowl colt should appreciate the likely going and his Dosage reading is close to where it should be for victory here.
Hamdan Al Maktoum’s Abtaal was runner-up to French Fifteen at Maisons-Laffitte, but finished three lengths clear of that rival in a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud last term and has not finished out of the first two in his four appearances. A DI of 2.38 marks him out as a speed miler similar to his rival and compatriot French Fifteen (they sit together in our table).
Dosage track record in the 2,000 Guineas
Since I have been writing these big race previews using Dosage to identify likely winners the system has given us Haafhd in 2004, when he was put forward to topple the unsuitable favourite One Cool Cat. In 2005 it told us that Footstepsinthesand and Oratorio had a clear advantage over the red-hot favourite Dubawi – both finishing in front of that one in the race itself. The confident vote went to George Washington in 2006. In 2007 the system gave us the first, second and fourth, in Cockney Rebel, Vital Equine and Duke Of Marmalade (a Cockney Rebel/Vital Equine straight forecast paid out £692.93 to a £1 stake!), and in 2008 the system told us that Henrythenavigator had a better blend of speed and stamina at a mile than New Approach (who was marked out for middle distances). We missed the target with Mastercraftsman – although he went on to land the Irish 2,000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes, proving he was the right type for Group 1-level performances at a mile. Makfi conformed to a typical DI for the race. However, last year’s winner Frankel was an atypical winner. Despite showing phenomenal ability at a mile, if anything he is fancied to improve when eventually stepped up to 10 furlongs.
Sweet spot
The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 10 2,000 Guineas winners is 1.88 (see table), but those with a slightly higher DI than the average (up to just above DI 2) seem the ideal type for the race. Of the past 10 winners those that conform to this measure are: Makfi (DI 2.11), Henrythenavigator (1.92), Cockney Rebel (1.91), George Washington (1.67), Haafhd (2.33) and Rock Of Gibraltar (2.16). Last year’s winner Frankel is the only winner in the past 10 renewals with a DI of below 1.0 (indicating greater stamina potential than is usually associated with this race). Camelot would likewise be an atypical winner on an identical DI to Frankel of 0.94.
Year Colt DI
2011 Frankel 0.94
2010 Makfi 2.11
2009 Sea The Stars 3.00
2008 Henrythenavigator 1.92
2007 Cockney Rebel 1.91
2006 George Washington 1.67
2005 Footstepsinthesand 1.08* (from 1.77)
2004 Haafhd 2.33
2003 Refuse To Bend 1.05
2002 Rock Of Gibraltar 2.16
Average 1.88
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)
Summary
My original fancies this year were Harbour Watch and Tales Of Grimm, who won’t make the line up. Of those remaining Power comes into it with solid credentials, but it will be difficult to exclude his stablemate Camelot from a strong say in events, despite looking more of a middle distance type. The French colts, French Fifteen and Abtaal and the Irish-trained Born To Sea look promising milers and should be better suited to eight furlongs than the favourite in normal conditions, with preference for French Fifteen who may be value to topple the short-priced favourite. Parish Hall has solid form but may appreciate a step up in trip. Best of the rest are Trumpet Major and Top Offer.
Suggested finishing order:
1) French Fifteen
2) Camelot
3) Born To Sea
4) Abtaal
5) Parish Hall
6) Power
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