Impregnable Camelot has armoury to repel rivals at Derby trip

Steve Miller     Pedigree Pointers/Derby Dosage Special

Impregnable Camelot has armoury to repel rivals at Derby trip

HEAVY RAINFALL in April and May and resultant soft going has cast doubt on the form of several of the most significant trials for the Investec Derby. Where the form is lacking or inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to give us our edge.

Contenders for the Derby, as a rule of thumb, require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of around 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part. In addition to stamina suitability (to which the Dosage system confines itself) other factors will of course play their part – not least the ability to handle the track and the prevailing going and how good the individual is to begin with.

The accompanying table shows 11 of the 12 left in at the confirmation stage. Bonfire is excluded as his point’s total of just six is too low for an accurate reading. It is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI).

2012 Derby contenders

Colt                                        Sire/dam sire                                        Profile                                    DI            CD

Imperial Monarch                Galileo/Slip Anchor                             3-0-10-9-4 = 26                    0.44        -0.42

Father Of Science                Galileo/Darshaan                              4-0-11-5-2 = 22                    0.76        -0.05

Camelot                                Montjeu/Kingmambo                          6-1-17-8-0 = 32                    0.94        0.16

Cavaleiro                               Sir Percy/Alhaarth                                1-0-10-0-1 = 12                    1.00        0.00

Astrology                               Galileo/Dr Fong                                   4-0-10-4-0 = 18                    1.00        0.22

Thought Worthy                    Dynaformer/Diesis                              6-2-23-1-2 = 34                    1.34        0.26

Minimise Risk                      Galileo/Halo                                         8-1-17-4-0 = 30                    1.40        0.43

Rugged Cross                     Cape Cross/Soviet Star                     2-4-10-0-0 = 16                    2.20        0.50

Main Sequence                    Aldebaran/Pivotal                                8-3-11-1-1 = 24                    2.20        0.67

Mickdaam                             Dubawi/Be My Guest                          5-0-4-0-1 = 10                      2.33        0.80

Tower Rock                          Dylan Thomas/Mr Prospector           11-4-17-0-0 = 32                 2.76        0.81 

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Team Ballydoyle

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Camelot just can’t please some folk. He was doubted before the 2,000 Guineas (with some going as far as saying the son of Montjeu couldn’t win the spring classic) and was also damned with faint praise after winning the Guineas as the best of a mediocre bunch. The fact is he won the race in fine style, almost counter to his natural stamina attributes, coming from off the pace and using his turn of foot to outperform his rivals, from a high class natural miler in French Fifteen. I commented in my 2,000 Guineas preview that despite showing eight stamina points in his Dosage profile he also has sharper dam side influences and was just the Montjeu progeny type likely do very well in the Guineas. However, this does not compromise his chances at 12 furlongs. Indeed, Camelot is a broad spectrum horse showing a good spread of points in his profile and the type that that should manage to win over a range of distances. Everything about him suggests that he will make up into a fine middle-distance individual and he will take a world of beating here.

Camelot’s stablemate Imperial Monarch has already been successful at 10 furlongs and appears at the top of our table being a Galileo/Slip Anchor cross. He is liable to show pronounced stamina attributes at a mile-and-a-half and beyond and looks an ideal St Leger type. He has nevertheless also shown a decent turn of foot and can prove effective at 12 furlongs.

Wide margin Dee Stakes winner Astrology no doubt had his task made easier by the withdrawal of Bonfire due to the soft going, but made no bones about putting his field to the sword. He falls into a group that occupy a ‘sweet spot’ with regard to stamina aptitude for this race.

High Chaparral’s half brother Father Of Science is a Galileo/Darshaan cross, appearing near the top of our table, while Tower Rock, appearing at the bottom, completes Ballydoyle’s Epsom team as a likely pacemaker.

Dante a leading Epsom trial

SEVEN Dante winners have gone on to win the Derby since 1980 and four in the past eight years. Bonfire was a fine winner of this season’s renewal holding off a determined challenger. The Dosage isn’t much help to us here as Bonfire has a point’s total of just six, which is too low for an accurate reading. However, the Andrew Balding-trained colt shares his sire Manduro with Mandaean, so has a chance of staying despite the suspicion that he could prove more of a 10 furlong horse. Minimise Risk is also a possible runner for Balding and while the Galileo colt should be at home with the trip he looks to be short of sufficient ability at this level.

Thought Worthy (a full brother to Lucarno, who was fourth to Authorized in the 2007 Derby) got the better of Noble Mission (carrying a 5lb penalty) in a tight finish at Newmarket at Listed level over 10 furlongs, a race that also included Derby hopeful Rugged Cross. Thought Worthy can be expected to stay 12 furlongs, although there are concerns that the colt will be able to handle the undulations at Epsom. Rugged Cross scores no points in the stamina wing of his profile and may come up short.

The Richard Fahey-trained Chester Vase winner Mickdaam should not be inconvenienced by the trip, but others make more appeal. Paul Hanagan is set to take the ride.

The unbeaten Main Sequence won the Lingfield Derby Trial and is a credible contender. There are others with more appropriate stamina profiles however. Cavaleiro was placed behind Main Sequence for Marcus Tregoning at Lingfield. The Derby trip should play to his strengths and he has pleased in recent work.

Dosage Derby track record

The Dosage system helped us to select the winner and first four in 2008 and the winner and first five in 2007. New Approach was taken to outperform his earlier efforts at a mile over middle distances in 2008, while Authorized was the confident selection the year before that, conforming to a profile that was a virtual blueprint for the race.

Fame And Glory was our choice in 2009, also appearing to be an excellent candidate – as indeed he proved by taking the Irish Derby – but had to settle for runner-up spot at Epsom to a brilliant atypical winner in Sea The Stars.

Workforce had the sort of reading we might expect for the Derby in 2010 and Pour Moi was the confident selection to ruin the Queen’s day by putting race favourite Carlton House in his place last year.

Speed/stamina balance

The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a DI of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. However, the average DI for the past 10 winners is a little higher at 1.19 and those in a band between about DI 0.8 and 1.4 appear best suited to the requirements of the race (see table).

Dosage of previous 10 Derby winners

Year     Colt                              DI

2011     Pour Moi                       0.78

2010     Workforce                     1.44

2009     Sea The Stars               3.00

2008     New Approach               0.89

2007     Authorized*                   0.86*     (from 1.00)    

2006     Sir Percy                       0.54

2005     Motivator                       1.43

2004     North Light*                   1.13*     (from 1.60)

2003     Kris Kin*                       1.05*     (from 1.34)

2002     High Chaparral               0.82

Average                                   1.19

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

The winners who matched this requirement, of the past 10 winners are: Pour Moi (DI 0.78), Workforce (1.44), New Approach (0.89), Authorized (0.86), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05) and High Chaparral (0.82). The exceptional Sea The Stars is the outlier here – a colt with a DI of 3 would not normally be expected to last the Derby trip.

Shortlist

The best matches this year are: Camelot (DI 0.94), Cavaleiro (1.00), Astrology (1.00), Thought Worthy (1.34) and Minimise Risk (1.40).

Of those with realistic chances we are left with Camelot and Astrology and possibly Cavaleiro. We might add Imperial Monarch who appears at the head of our table for stamina aptitude but has also shown a turn of foot and the excluded Bonfire, for winning the Dante.

Camelot is preferred with all of the necessary attributes required for victory. His main opposition is likely to come from his own stablemates Imperial Monarch and Astrology and possibly also from Bonfire, despite some doubt about that one fully seeing out the trip.

Verdict

1)     Camelot

2)     Imperial Monarch

3)     Bonfire

4)     Astrology

5)     Cavaleiro

6)     Main Sequence

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

c Steve Miller 2012

Faster going on far side at Newmarket, favours Abtaal

2,000 Guineas Newmarket: The going is back to Good to Soft from Soft this afternoon (Friday). The far side (i.e. the low draw) is firmer than the stand side. This should make a crucial difference: http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoi...urse=newmarket


This will be a big advantage to Abtaal (drawn 2).

French pretender threatens to undo classy Camelot

French Fifteen and Born To Sea well suited to the balance of speed and stamina required for the Rowley Mile

French pretender threatens to undo classy Camelot

See also: http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2012/2012_2000_guineas_preview.htm

As the new Flat season changes up into top gear for the spring classics a new generation of three-year-olds prepare to lock horns over Newmarket’s Rowley Mile. The 2,000 Guineas poses the usual conundrums of brimming potential against often scant form. Where the form is inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to identify those with the right blend of speed and stamina for the race.

The table shows 20 of the 22 left in at the confirmation stage (Saigon and the supplemented Talwar are excluded as their points totals are too low for an accurate reading). As usual, those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI). Those with the best chances will have an optimum blend of speed and stamina.

2,000 Guineas contenders

Horse                        Sire/dam sire                         Profile                     DI        CD         

Mandaean                             Manduro/Darshaan                             2-0-6-1-3 = 12                      0.71        -0.25

Caspar Netscher                    Dutch Art/Singspiel                             2-0-8-4-0 = 14                      0.75        0.00

Parish Hall                            Teofilo/Montjeu                                    2-1-8-5-0 = 16                      0.78        0.00

Ptolemaic                              Excellent Art/Rainbow Quest             4-1-15-7-1 = 28                    0.81        0.00

Camelot                               Montjeu/Kingmambo                          6-1-17-8-0 = 32                    0.94        0.16

Hermival                               Dubawi/Persian Bold                         2-1-2-2-1 = 8                        1.00        0.13

Boomerang Bob                  Aussie Rules/Cozzene                       1-4-11-0-4 = 20                    1.11        -0.10

Furner’s Green                    Dylan Thomas/Rainbow Quest            5-2-18-5-0 = 30                    1.14        0.23

Power                                    Oasis Dream/Inchinor                        2-3-10-3-0 = 18                    1.25        0.22

Coupe De Ville                     Clodovil/Fantastic Light                      2-3-8-1-2 = 16                      1.29        0.13

Mighty Ambition                    Street Cry/Sadler’s Wells                   7-1-11-4-1 = 24                    1.29        0.38

Trumpet Major                      Arakan/Cape Cross                            2-2-14-0-0 = 18                    1.57        0.33

Red Duke                              Hard Spun/Gone West                       6-5-16-1-0 = 28                    2.11        0.57 

Bronterre                               Oasis Dream/Royal Academy           6-7-10-3-0 = 26                    2.25        0.62

Redact                                   Strategic Prince/Fairy King                3-1-6-0-0 = 10                      2.33        0.70

Abtaal                                     Rock Hard Ten/Valid Appeal             8-2-11-1-0 = 22                    2.38        0.77 

French Fifteen                      Turtle Bowl/Ashkalani                         3-2-7-0-0 = 12                      2.43        0.67

Fencing                                 Street Cry/Inchinor                               6-1-6-0-1 = 14                      2.50        0.79

Top Offer                               Dansili/Zafonic                                     4-3-9-0-0 = 16                      2.56        0.69

Born To Sea                         Invincible Spirit/Miswaki                      6-3-9-0-0 = 18                      3.00        0.83

Parish Hall, trained by Jim Bolger in Ireland, completed his two-year-old season in fine form as runner-up to Dragon Pulse in the Group 2 EBF Futurity Stakes, followed by Group 1 success in the Dewhurst at odds of 20/1. The Teofilo colt has Montjeu as his damsire and features close to the top of our stamina aptitude table. Although he has been trained for the 2,000 Guineas whatever he does at a mile he is likely to improve on at middle distances. It could prove worth backing him ante-post for the Derby on the expectation of a good showing here.

Power had a highly successful two-year-old season finishing in the first two in all six of his starts, winning the Group 1 National Stakes in Ireland as well as the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and was only just touched off in the Phoenix Stakes and the Dewhurst. The Oasis Dream colt will have no problem at the trip.

Camelot was unbeaten in his two starts last term, taking the Racing Post Trophy in eye-catching style, giving his sire Montjeu his fourth success in the race. Despite showing eight stamina points in his Dosage profile he also has sharper influences with Kingmambo as his dam sire and is the sort of horse that could do very well here. He can also be expected to progress at middle distances and given the likely going it may take a horse that truly gets further than a mile to take this. Connections of Camelot (i.e. the breeding operation Coolmore) will be eager to win a Classic/Group 1 over a mile with a son of Montjeu (following the stallion’s death at the end of March this year).

Furner’s Green, winner of the Group 3 Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial on his latest start, after finishing half a length runner-up to Light Heavy on his reappearance, could also make the line up for Ballydoyle.

Hannon bid

The Richard Hannon-trained Trumpet Major was a decisive winner of the Craven Stakes on his reappearance this term from stablemate Crius, giving 3lb to his field, and looks worth his place in the line up. The Arakan colt won the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last term and finished a close up fifth in the Dewhurst. While he didn’t handle soft going in the Solario Stakes at Sandown he coped with the Craven going, but a return to faster conditions should see him to even better effect.

Stablemate Bronterre won his maiden and a Listed race last term before finishing about a length fourth in a closely contested Dewhurst, a neck ahead of Trumpet Major. The Oasis Dream colt disappointed on his reappearance when pulling in the Greenham to finish third to Caspar Netscher. Coupe De Ville and Redact are also still in the mix for Hannon and are in the zone to be effective at the trip, but have something to find on form.

The Greenham winner Caspar Netscher was a Group 2 winner last year of the Gimcrack (York) and the Mill Reef Stakes (Newbury) and was placed at that level behind Harbour Watch in the Richmond Stakes. A couple of Group 1 attempts at Newmarket in the Middle Park and at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile proved unsuccessful. The Dutch Art colt is exposed, winning four and being placed in four from 11 starts. He features close to the top of our stamina aptitude table and should prove best at distances beyond a mile.

Born To Sea, a three-parts brother to 2,000 Guineas winner Sea The Stars, landed his debut, a Listed race at the Curragh, convincingly for trainer John Oxx. He was subsequently beaten by Nephrite at Leopardstown, but was found to be lame after the run through injury sustained leaving the stalls. He is reportedly “fit and forward” and lines up in the Guineas without need of a preparatory outing. The Invincible Spirit colt is likely to excel at a mile and has good influences for speed.

Top Offer won his only start last season, a 15-runner Newbury maiden, impressively for owner Khalid Abdullah and trainer Roger Charlton. He was pulled out of the Greenham on his intended reappearance due to soft going. Largely an unknown quantity but his Dosage reading marks him out as a miler with speed influences.

Fencing, the winner of a Listed race at Newbury for John Gosden, was no threat when running third to Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster.

Musselburgh maiden winner Ptolemaic, for trainer Bryan Smart, was well beaten into fourth on his reappearance in the Craven behind Trumpet Major and there seems no good reason why he should reverse form with that one on 3lb worse terms.

Maiden winner Boomerang Bob has finished runner-up three times at Group level, splitting Caspar Netscher and Bronterre on his latest start in the Greenham.

Group 1 winner Mandaean has moved from Andre Fabre to Mahmood Al Zarooni. He is still in the Guineas and will also be aimed at the Dante with a view to running in the Derby, which according to his Dosage reading is a more appropriate target (he heads our table). Craven disappointment Mighty Ambition could also represent Godolphin.

Red Duke was narrowly successful in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket last term, followed by decent efforts in Group company at Goodwood and Doncaster. The colt finished eighth of nine in the Dewhurst, when racing wide.

Saigon was a Listed winner for James Toller last term. Subsequent highly tried but unsuccessful in five attempts at Group level. The Royal Applause colt has a Dosage points total of just four which is too low for a meaningful reading and is excluded from our table. He has recently reportedly been recovering from a foot abscess, but is apparently on course to line up.

Jeremy Noseda’s Talwar, who won a Listed race at Lingfield on his reappearance this season and beat Trumpet Major in a Listed race at Ascot last season, has been supplemented. With a points total of just two he is also excluded from our table.

French challenge

Mikel Delzangles, who trained 2,000 Guineas winner Makfi, still has Hermival engaged with Dragon Pulse coming out at the confirmation stage. Hermival won his only start last term and ran a pleasing race on his reappearance when third in the Prix Djebel.

The Nicolas Clement-trained French Fifteen, winner of the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint Cloud last term, advertised his claims for the Guineas by landing the Prix Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte on his reappearance at the beginning of April, by a neck from Abtaal with Hermival in third. The Turtle Bowl colt should appreciate the likely going and his Dosage reading is close to where it should be for victory here.

Hamdan Al Maktoum’s Abtaal was runner-up to French Fifteen at Maisons-Laffitte, but finished three lengths clear of that rival in a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud last term and has not finished out of the first two in his four appearances. A DI of 2.38 marks him out as a speed miler similar to his rival and compatriot French Fifteen (they sit together in our table).

Dosage track record in the 2,000 Guineas

Since I have been writing these big race previews using Dosage to identify likely winners the system has given us Haafhd in 2004, when he was put forward to topple the unsuitable favourite One Cool Cat. In 2005 it told us that Footstepsinthesand and Oratorio had a clear advantage over the red-hot favourite Dubawi – both finishing in front of that one in the race itself. The confident vote went to George Washington in 2006. In 2007 the system gave us the first, second and fourth, in Cockney Rebel, Vital Equine and Duke Of Marmalade (a Cockney Rebel/Vital Equine straight forecast paid out £692.93 to a £1 stake!), and in 2008 the system told us that Henrythenavigator had a better blend of speed and stamina at a mile than New Approach (who was marked out for middle distances). We missed the target with Mastercraftsman – although he went on to land the Irish 2,000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes, proving he was the right type for Group 1-level performances at a mile. Makfi conformed to a typical DI for the race. However, last year’s winner Frankel was an atypical winner. Despite showing phenomenal ability at a mile, if anything he is fancied to improve when eventually stepped up to 10 furlongs.

Sweet spot

The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 10 2,000 Guineas winners is 1.88 (see table), but those with a slightly higher DI than the average (up to just above DI 2) seem the ideal type for the race. Of the past 10 winners those that conform to this measure are: Makfi (DI 2.11), Henrythenavigator (1.92), Cockney Rebel (1.91), George Washington (1.67), Haafhd (2.33) and Rock Of Gibraltar (2.16). Last year’s winner Frankel is the only winner in the past 10 renewals with a DI of below 1.0 (indicating greater stamina potential than is usually associated with this race). Camelot would likewise be an atypical winner on an identical DI to Frankel of 0.94.

 

Year     Colt                              DI

2011     Frankel                         0.94

2010     Makfi                            2.11

2009     Sea The Stars               3.00

2008     Henrythenavigator          1.92

2007     Cockney Rebel              1.91

2006     George Washington       1.67

2005     Footstepsinthesand        1.08*     (from 1.77)

2004     Haafhd                          2.33

2003     Refuse To Bend 1.05

2002     Rock Of Gibraltar           2.16

Average                                   1.88

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

Summary

My original fancies this year were Harbour Watch and Tales Of Grimm, who won’t make the line up. Of those remaining Power comes into it with solid credentials, but it will be difficult to exclude his stablemate Camelot from a strong say in events, despite looking more of a middle distance type. The French colts, French Fifteen and Abtaal and the Irish-trained Born To Sea look promising milers and should be better suited to eight furlongs than the favourite in normal conditions, with preference for French Fifteen who may be value to topple the short-priced favourite. Parish Hall has solid form but may appreciate a step up in trip. Best of the rest are Trumpet Major and Top Offer.

Suggested finishing order:

1)     French Fifteen

2)     Camelot

3)     Born To Sea

4)     Abtaal

5)     Parish Hall

6)     Power

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.