2013 Cheltenham Festival – Selections UPDATE four days
DAY 1 Tuesday March 12, 2013
Supreme
Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
5yos or 6yos do best in this (winning nine of the past
11 renewals). The last favourite to win was Brave Inca in 2004, although three
favourites have won in the past 11 renewals. The Irish tend to do well in this.
Lightly exposed runners do well, although most had won last time out. If My
Tent Or Yours can’t win Un Atout probably will, with the likes of Puffin Billy,
Champagne Fever and Dodging Bullets the best of the rest.
Selections:
1) My Tent Or
Yours 2) Un Atout 3) Puffin Billy 4) Champagne
Fever e.w. 5) Dodging
Bullets
Arkle Challenge
Trophy Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m
6yos and 7yos do well (winning seven of the past 11
renewals). 5yos no longer have the 5lb allowance they used to receive so are
unlikely to do as well as in the past. Only two winners aged over seven in the past 21
renewals. Big priced
horses tend not to do well, 8/1 or less is a good guide. Four actual favourites
(Remittance Man, Klairon Davis, Azertyuiop and Sprinter Sacre) have won in the
past 21 renewals. Highly rated ex-hurdlers (above at least 140) and
French-breds do well.
Sprinter Sacre (recommended at 10/1 against for this
last year) obliged at odds-on. Simonsig looks up to standard this time with
Overturn (despite age) or possibly Arvika Ligeonniere giving him most to do.
Selections:
1) Simonsig 2)
Overturn 3) Arvika Ligeonniere
Champion Hurdle
Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f
Serious contenders should have won, or nearly won,
their last race prior to the Champion and be the right side of eight, rather
than older (one of the past 11 winners was 9). Those that have won or been
placed at the Festival before do well. Eight favourites have won in the past 21
renewals. The ill-fated Darlan was the choice this year. In his absence it is
difficult to pick holes in Hurricane Fly although on the day Binocular can be
expected to run to a similar standard, but age is against both. Last year’s
winner Rock On Ruby has done nothing wrong, although the suspicion was that
Darlan had his measure before coming to grief last time. The 6yos Zarkandar and
Grandouet could improve sufficiently to challenge.
Selections:
1) Rock On Ruby 2)
Binocular (e.w.) 3) Hurricane Fly 4) Zarkandar
DAY 2 Wednesday March 13, 2013
John Oaksey NH Chase 4m
Older horses do well in this, ignore 5yos and 6yos.
Selections:
1) Rival D’Estruval 2) Back In
Focus/Boston Bob (Mullins)
Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m 5f
A good race for
those prominent in the betting (the 2/1 favourite Simonsig obliged last year).
5yos or 6yos win this, with only one 4yo and one 7yo from the past 21 winners. Likely
to be out of the New One and Pont Alexandre with preference for the latter,
although Taquin Du Seuil and Puffin Billy are not out of it.
Selections:
1) Pont Alexandre
2) The New One 3) Puffin Billy 4) Taquin
Du Seuil
Royal &
SunAlliance Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 3m ½f
7 and 8yos are
best for this (winning 10 of the past 11). Prominently ridden horses.
Traditional breeding over French-breds, oppose ex-Flat types. Dynaste or Boston Bob look to fit the bill,
with the 5yo Unioniste to fill the frame (one 5yo in past 11 renewals).
Selections:
1) Dynaste 2) Boston Bob
Champion Chase
Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m
Usually this is dominated by those that are well fancied, as they
tend to have exposed form (7 of the past 11 winners started at odds no bigger
than 5/1, although two of the past three winners have landed odds of 10/1 and
Newmill was 16/1 in 2006). Concentrate on those rated 160+. The majority of
past winners won or were placed at the Festival before. Arkle winners have a
high strike rate of finishing in the first two in this race the following year
and last year’s winner was runner-up in the Arkle the year before. Those that have run well in the race before tend to continue to
run well. Age does not appear to be a particularly important factor in winning
this with a spread of ages: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and an 11yo winning in the past
20 renewals. Last year’s Arkle winner Sprinter Sacre has an inevitable look
about him this time although he would be the first horse to win the Arkle,
Tingle Creek and Champion Chase in succession. Even if one is reluctant to take
the long odds-on about him he is impossibly talented should not be opposed.
1) Sprinter Sacre
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade
3 (4yo) 2m 110y
Selections:
1) Saphir Du Rheu
Champion
Bumper 2m ½f
5yos have advantage,
although exceptional 4yos – Cue Card, beat two 5yos in this – can win.
Irish-trained horses specialise in this, particularly Mullins.
Selections:
1) Golantilla
DAY 3 Thursday March 14, 2013
Jewson Novice Chase Listed 2m 4f
Selections:
1) Captain Conan 2)
Aupcharlie 3) Module
Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle Listed
3m
Unlike several high profile handicaps
do not be put off those carrying bigger weights.
Selections:
1) Shutthefrontdoor 2) Sam Winner 3) Captain Sunshine
Ryanair Chase Grade 2 2m 5f
Previous Cheltenham winners win this. Older horses do fine. Concentrate
on first handful in betting. Last year’s winner (7/2 fav), Riverside Theatre,
is again prominent in the betting. Very competitive race with Cue Card, Sizing
Europe, First Lieutenant and possibly Finian’s Rainbow in contention.
Selections:
1) Cue Card 2) First Lieutenant 3) Sizing Europe 4) Riverside Theatre
Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1
(4yo+) 3m
Steer clear of 5yos (no 5yo has won
this although decent ones have tried) and those aged in double figures. 6, 7, 8
and 9yos are all capable of winning. The Long Walk and Cleeve Hurdles are key
guides. Oppose those who race prominently. No Big Bucks this time leaves the
race looking wide open. Oscar Whisky looks classy, but is a 2½ mile specialist.
He could run in the Champion Hurdle, but his real target may well be Aintree
again at his optimum trip. Monksland (out) and Reve De Sivola look to set the
standard to beat.
Selections:
1) Reve De Sivola 2) Oscar Whisky 3) So Young
DAY 4 Friday March 15, 2013
Triumph
Hurdle 2m 1f (4yos)
I try to avoid having a bet
in the Triumph, although in two of the past three years my selections in
Soldatino and Zarkandar have obliged at generous ante-post odds. I did not
consider last year’s 33/1 winner Countrywide Flame however.
Selections:
1) Rolling
Star 2) Far West 3)
Our
Conor
VOB County
Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 2m 1f
Cotton Mill is the each-way
selection.
Selections:
1) Cotton Mill (e.w.)
AB Novice
Hurdle 3m
At Fishers Cross is
talented but may not line up. Ballycasey and Champagne Fever could do well, but
Coneygree may be the each-way bet.
Selections:
1) At Fishers Cross 2) Ballycasey 3) Coneygree e.w. 4)
Champagne Fever
Gold Cup Grade
1 3m 2½f
Favourites have won six of the past 10 renewals and
the biggest priced of the other four was 8/1 (last year). 7, 8 and 9yos do the
best by far in this. Long Run shouldn’t be dismissed lightly (he’s still only
8). However, the up-and-coming brigade look quite formidable with Bobs Worth
(Long Run’s stablemate), Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti vying for
favouritism. Long Run looks a solid each-way bet.
Selections:
1) Long Run e.w. 2)
Bobs Worth 3) Silviniaco Conti 4) Sir Des Champs
5) Cape Tribulation/ First
Lieutenant/Captain Chris
c
Steve Miller 2013
