Cheltenham Festival 2013: DAY 1 Trends and Selections

Cheltenham Festival 2013: DAY 1

Trends and Selections

DAY 1                 Tuesday March 12, 2013

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m ½f

5yos or 6yos do best in this (winning nine of the past 11 renewals). The last favourite to win was Brave Inca in 2004, although three favourites have won in the past 11 renewals. The Irish tend to do well in this. Lightly exposed runners do well, although most had won last time out. If My Tent Or Yours can’t win Un Atout probably will, with the likes of Champagne Fever, Dodging Bullets and Melodic Rendezvous the best of the rest.

Shortlist:

My Tent Or Yours                                            6

Jezki                                                                 5

Un Atout                                                           5

Melodic Rendezvous                                      7

River Maigue                                                   6

Dodging Bullets                                               5

Champagne Fever                                          6

Pique Sous                                                      6

Chatterbox                              ?                       5

Mozoltov                                                           7

Selections:

1) My Tent Or Yours   2) Un Atout      3) Champagne Fever  e.w.

4) Melodic Rendezvous 5) Dodging Bullets

Previous winners

2012 Cinders And Ashes         5                              10/1

2011 Al Ferof                          6                              10/1

2010 Menorah                        5                              12/1

2009 Go Native                       6                              12/1

2008 Captain Cee Bee            7                              17/2
2007 Ebaziyan                       6                              40/1
2006 Noland                           5                              6/1
2005 Arcalis                           5                              20/1
2004 Brave Inca                      6                              7/2         fav
2003 Back In Front                 6                              3/1          fav
2002 Like-A-Butterfly              8                              7/4          fav

Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m

6yos and 7yos do well (winning seven of the past 11 renewals). 5yos no longer have the 5lb allowance they used to receive so are unlikely to do as well as in the past. Only two winners aged over seven in the past 21 renewals. Big priced horses tend not to do well, 8/1 or less is a good guide. Four actual favourites (Remittance Man, Klairon Davis, Azertyuiop and Sprinter Sacre) have won in the past 21 renewals. Highly rated ex-hurdlers (above at least 140) and French-breds do well.

Sprinter Sacre (recommended at 10/1 against for this last year) obliged at odds-on. Simonsig looks up to standard this time with Overturn (despite age) or possibly Captain Conan or Arvika Ligeonniere giving him most to do.

Shortlist:

Simonsig                                             7

Overturn                                               9                                 

Captain Conan                                   6

Arvika Ligeonniere                             8

Fago                                                     5

Oscars Well                                         8

Majala                                                  7

Selections:

1) Simonsig     2) Overturn     3) Captain Conan        4) Arvika Ligeonniere

Previous winners

2012 Sprinter Sacre                 6                              8/11         fav

2011 Captain Chris                  7                              6/1

2010 Sizing Europe                 8                              6/1

2009 Forpadydeplasterer         7                              8/1

2008 Tidal Bay                       7                              6/1

2007 My Way de Solzen         7                              7/2

2006 Voy Por Ustedes            5                              15/2

2005 Contraband                    7                              7/1

2004 Well Chief                      5                              9/1

2003 Azertyuiop                     6                              5/4           fav

2002 Moscow Flyer                8                              11/2

JLT Specialty Handicap Chase Grade 3 (5yo+) 3m ½f

No selection

Champion Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+)  2m ½f

Serious contenders should have won, or nearly won, their last race prior to the Champion and be the right side of eight, rather than older (one of the past 11 winners was 9). Those that have won or been placed at the Festival before do well. Eight favourites have won in the past 21 renewals. The ill-fated Darlan was the choice this year. In his absence it is difficult to pick holes in Hurricane Fly although on the day Binocular can be expected to run to a similar standard, but age is against both. Last year’s winner Rock On Ruby has done nothing wrong, although the suspicion was that Darlan had his measure before coming to grief last time. The 6yos Zarkandar and Grandouet could improve sufficiently to challenge, while Oscar Whisky would be interesting if lining up in this rather than the World Hurdle.

Shortlist:

Hurricane Fly                                      9

Binocular                                            9

Zarkandar                                           6

Rock On Ruby                                    8
Grandouet                                          6

Cinders And Ashes                           6

Countrywide Flame                           5

Oscar Whisky                         ?         8

Selections:

1) Rock On Ruby       2) Binocular (e.w.)      3) Hurricane Fly          4) Zarkandar                          

Previous winners

2012 Rock On Ruby              7                              11/1

2011 Hurricane Fly                7                              11/4         fav

2010 Binocular                      6                              9/1

2009 Punjabi                         6                              22/1

2008 Katchit                         5                              10/1

2007 Sublimity                      7                              16/1

2006 Brave Inca                    8                              7/4          fav

2005 Hardy Eustace              8                              7/2          joint-fav

2004 Hardy Eustace              7                              33/1

2003 Rooster Booster            9                              9/2

2002 Hors La Loi III                7                              10/1

Cross Country Handicap Chase (5yo+) 3m 7f

Shortlist:

Balthazar King                                     9

Selection:        1) Balthazar King

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle 2m 4f

Quevega has won four of the five renewals of this race. Whiteoak won the inaugural running at 20/1.

Shortlist:

Quevega                                                         9

Unaccompanied                                             6

Une Artiste                                                      5

Kentford Grey Lady                                        7

Selection: 1) Quevega

c Steve Miller 2013