Cheltenham Festival 2013: DAY 2 Trends and Selections

Cheltenham Festival 2013: DAY 2

Trends and Selections

DAY 2                  Wednesday March 13, 2013

John Oaksey NH Chase       4m

Older horses do well in this, ignore 5yos and 6yos.

Shortlist:

Boston Bob                 ?                      8

Back In Focus                                     8

Rival D’Estruval                                  8

Harry Topper                                       6

Selections:

1) Rival D’Estruval      2) Back In Focus/Boston Bob (Mullins)         

Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m 5f

A good race for those prominent in the betting (the 2/1 favourite Simonsig obliged last year). 5yos or 6yos win this, with only one 4yo and one 7yo from the past 21 winners. Likely to be out of the New One and Pont Alexandre with preference for the latter, although Taquin Du Seuil and Puffin Billy are not out of it.

Shortlist:

Pont Alexandre                                    5

The New One                                       5

Champagne Fever                  ?          6

Taquin Du Seuil                                   6

Rule The World                                    6

Puffin Billy                                             5

Chatterbox                              ?           5

Selections:

1) Pont Alexandre  2) The New One   3) Puffin Billy   4) Taquin Du Seuil

Previous winners

2012 Simonsig                         6              2/1           fav

2011 First Lieutenant                6              7/1

2010 Peddlers Cross                5              7/1

2009 Mikael D’Haguenet           5              5/2           fav

2008 Fiveforthree                      6              7/1

2007 Massini's Maguire                            20/1

2006 Nicanor                                           17/2

2005 No Refuge                                      17/2

2004 Fundamentalist                               12/1

2003 Hardy Eustace                                 6/1

2002 Galileo                                            12/1

Royal & SunAlliance Chase Grade 1 (5yo+) 3m ½f

7 and 8yos are best for this (winning 10 of the past 11). Prominently ridden horses. Traditional breeding over French-breds, oppose ex-Flat types. Dynaste or Boston Bob look to fit the bill, with the 5yo Unioniste to fill the frame (one 5yo in past 11 renewals).

Shortlist:

Dynaste                                               7

Boston Bob                                         8

Unioniste                                             5

Back In Focus                                     8

Mikael D’Haguenet                            9

Selections:

1) Dynaste      2) Boston Bob

Previous winners

2012 Bobs Worth                                    7                              9/2
2011 Bostons Angel                                7                              16/1
2010 Weapons Amnesty                         7                              10/1
2009 Cooldine                                        7                              9/4          fav
2008 Albertas Run                                  7                              4/1          fav
2007 Denman                                         7                              6/5          fav
2006 Star De Mohaison                           5                              14/1
2005 Trabolgan                                       7                              5/1
2004 Rule Supreme                                8                              25/1
2003 One Knight                                    7                              15/2
2002 Hussard Collonges                         7                              33/1

Champion Chase Grade 1 (5yo+)  2m

Usually this is dominated by those that are well fancied, as they tend to have exposed form (7 of the past 11 winners started at odds no bigger than 5/1, although two of the past three winners have landed odds of 10/1 and Newmill was 16/1 in 2006). Concentrate on those rated 160+. The majority of past winners won or were placed at the Festival before. Arkle winners have a high strike rate of finishing in the first two in this race the following year and last year’s winner was runner-up in the Arkle the year before. Those that have run well in the race before tend to continue to run well. Age does not appear to be a particularly important factor in winning this with a spread of ages: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and an 11yo winning in the past 20 renewals. Last year’s Arkle winner Sprinter Sacre has an inevitable look about him this time although he would be the first horse to win the Arkle, Tingle Creek and Champion Chase in succession. Even if one is reluctant to take the long odds-on about him he is impossibly talented should not be opposed.

Shortlist:

Sprinter Sacre                                                 7

Sizing Europe                                                 11

Finians Rainbow                                             10

Sanctuaire                                                        7

Cue Card                                 ?                       7

Mail De Bievre                         ?                      8

Somersby                                                         9

Wishfull Thinking                                             10

Realt Dubh                                                        9

1)  Sprinter Sacre

Previous winners

2012 Finians Rainbow              9                              4/1         

2011 Sizing Europe                 9                              10/1

2010 Big Zeb                           9                              10/1
2009 Master Minded                6                              4/11        fav
2008 Master Minded                5                              3/1
2007 Voy Por Ustedes             6                              5/1
2006 Newmill                           8                             16/1
2005 Moscow Flyer                11                              6/4          fav
2004 Azertyuiop                      7                              15/8
2003 Moscow Flyer                 9                              7/4          fav
2002 Flagship Uberalles          8                              7/4          fav

Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (4yo+)  2m 5f

Shortlist:

Cotton Mill                               ?                       6

Wonderful Charm                                            5

Gevrey Chambertin                                         5

Selections:

1) Gevrey Chambertin

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (4yo) 2m 110y

Shortlist:

Ptit Zig                                                 4

Saphir Du Rheu                                  4

Selections:

1) Saphir Du Rheu

Champion Bumper      2m ½f

5yos have advantage, although exceptional 4yos – Cue Card, beat two 5yos in this – can win. Irish-trained horses specialise in this, particularly Mullins.

Shortlist:

Golantilla                                              5

Empiracle                                            6

Clondaw Court                                    6

Oscar Rock                                         5

Selections:

1) Golantilla

c Steve Miller 2013