Derby Preview 2013

World to rule at Derby trip

WITH THE Investec Derby and Oaks fast approaching and with a brilliant 2,000 Guineas winner dominating the Epsom market, we look to the Dosage system to decide if Dawn Approach is the good thing many believe him to be.

Contenders for the Derby and Oaks, as a rule of thumb, require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of around 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part.

The accompanying table shows the 15 left in the Derby at Monday’s confirmation stage. It is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI.

2013 Derby contenders

Colt                        Sire/dam sire                         Profile                         DI            CD

Libertarian              New Approach/Darshaan           1-1-7-3-2 = 14                0.65        -0.29

Mirsaale                Sir Percy/Sadler’s Wells            3-1-9-6-1 = 20                0.74        -0.05

Galileo Rock          Galileo/Groom Dancer               5-0-11-4-4 = 24               0.78        -0.08

Festive Cheer         Montjeu/Pembroke                    3-0-10-5-0 = 18               0.80        0.06

Ocovango               Monsun/Gone West                  5-1-16-8-0 = 30               0.87        0.10

First Cornerstone    Hurricane Run/Diesis                 4-0-8-3-1 = 16                1.00        0.19

Magician                Galileo/Mozart                          3-1-8-4-0 = 16                 1.00        0.19

Ruler Of The World  Galileo/Kingmambo                   9-0-21-8-0 = 38               1.05        0.26 

Trading Leather       Teofilo/Sinndar                          1-3-7-3-0 = 14                 1.15        0.14

Chopin                   Santiago/Galileo                        3-1-7-2-1 = 14                 1.15        0.21

Mars                      Galileo/Danehill                         5-2-13-4-0 = 24               1.29        0.33

Flying The Flag       Galileo/Pivotal                           3-4-9-4-0 = 20                 1.35        0.30

Battle Of Marengo    Galileo/Green Desert                8-3-13-4-0 = 28                1.67        0.54

Dawn Approach       New Approach/Phone Trick        2-4-8-2-0 = 16                 1.67        0.38

Ocean Applause      Royal Applause/Magic Ring       2-2-6-0-0 = 10                  2.33        0.60

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Stamina doubts

The seven-from-seven unbeaten 2,000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach was an irresistible choice for the spring classic. But while the colt’s sire New Approach had more than enough stamina for the Derby on a DI of 0.89 (i.e. below 1.0), the chances of Dawn Approach are much less clear cut on a DI of 1.67, which would not be a typical mark for a Derby winner. In fact only the very atypical Sea The Stars had a higher DI of the past 12 winners of the race (see table). We must take on board that he is a relaxed individual, which could help him to eke out the trip, but the Dosage suggests we should look elsewhere for our winner. While 2,000 Guineas winner Camelot was rated a good thing in this column last year, I’m very comfortable in opposing this season’s 2,000 Guineas winner to follow up.

While Dawn Approach appears toward the bottom of our table (indicating aptitude for speed over stamina), the other New Approach colt in the field Libertarian features at the top, as this son of New Approach is out of a Darshaan mare. Libertarian can be expected to have more than enough stamina for this and will surely come into his own later in the season in the St Leger. The colt made use of his stamina in winning the Dante and it should be said that seven Dante winners have gone on to win the Derby since 1980 and four in the past nine years. He will not fail for stamina but may be wanting for overall class.

Team Ballydoyle

Aidan O’Brien has a typically powerful hand. The Galileo colt Magician improved for stepping up to 10 furlongs at Chester and will be perfectly suited to 12 furlongs, on a DI of 1.0, but the Derby may come too soon for Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas winner. Magician’s stablemate, Ruler Of The World, also by Galileo and beautifully bred out of the Kingmambo mare Love Me True, by Duke Of Marmalade, on a DI of 1.05, will also be perfectly suited to the trip. He has eight stamina points in his profile and this should prove his optimum trip. Both Ruler Of The World and Magician occupy a sweet spot in our table.

Battle Of Marengo is a grand sort, winning five of his six appearances, three at Group level. He has sharper influences than some of these through Green Desert on his dam side and has the same headline DI of 1.67 as Dawn Approach, although his four stamina points against Dawn Approach’s two, may give the son of Galileo the edge at this trip.

Another Galileo colt from Ballydoyle, Mars, could also develop into a leading middle distance performer for the yard this season, on a DI of 1.29.

French challenge

The Andre Fabre-trained Ocovango is very well placed in our table, on a DI of 0.87. His sire Monsun is a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (chief of breed, see http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/monsun.htm) and consequently an influence for middle distance stamina. Ocovango’s dam sire Gone West is also showing prepotent influence (and is a strong candidate for the next tranche of chef-de-race sires). The unbeaten Ocovango looks a colt of some quality and will be difficult to keep out of the frame at this distance.

The Derby takes on a convincing international tone with the inclusion of the Andreas Wohler-trained Chopin, supplemented at a cost of £75,000. He’s set to become the first German-trained runner in the race.

Speed/stamina balance

The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a DI of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. The average DI for the past 12 winners is only a little higher at 1.16 and those in a band between about DI 0.8 and 1.4 appear best suited to the requirements of the race (see table).

Dosage of previous Derby winners

Year      Colt                               DI

2012     Camelot                        0.94

2011     Pour Moi                       0.78

2010     Workforce                     1.44

2009     Sea The Stars              3.00

2008     New Approach             0.89

2007     Authorized*                   0.86*     (from 1.00)    

2006     Sir Percy                       0.54

2005     Motivator                       1.43

2004     North Light*                   1.13*     (from 1.60)

2003     Kris Kin*                        1.05*     (from 1.34)

2002     High Chaparral              0.82

2001     Galileo                           1.11     

Average                                      1.16

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

Those who matched this requirement, of the past 12 winners are: Camelot (DI 0.94), Pour Moi (0.78), Workforce (1.44), New Approach (0.89), Authorized (0.86), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82) and Galileo (1.11). The exceptional Sea The Stars is the outlier here – a colt with a DI of 3 would not normally be expected to last the Derby trip.

Shortlist

The best matches this year are: Ocovango (DI 0.87), First Cornerstone (1.0), Magician (1.00), Ruler Of The World (1.05), Trading Leather (1.15), Chopin (1.15) and Mars (1.29).

Of these, those with the best chances are Ocovango, Magician, Ruler Of The World, Mars and possibly Chopin. We might also add Battle Of Marengo to this list as he is shaping well as a middle distance performer and has always been earmarked for this race by his trainer.

RULER OF THE WORLD is taken to hold off the challenge of his stablemates and Ocovango. Magician is also expected to be in the shake up if recovered from his exertions in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and allowed to take his chance. The likely favourite Dawn Approach is expected to travel well for a long way before emptying.

Verdict

1)     Ruler Of The World

2)     Ocovango

3)     Magician (Mars alternative)

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

c S E Miller 2013

Oaks Preview 2013

Moth to fly in the face of Beckett team

2013 Oaks contenders

Filly                         Sire/dam sire                        Profile                      DI            CD

Gertrude Versed       Manduro/Sugar Mill                  2-0-11-5-0 = 18          0.71        -0.05

The Lark                  Pivotal/In The Wings                2-1-16-6-1 = 26           0.73        -0.12

Talent                     New Approach/Peintre Celebre  3-0-13-4-0 = 20           0.90         0.10

Miss You Too          Montjeu/Peintre Celebre            3-1-17-5-0 = 26          0.93         0.08

Say                        Galileo/Dynaformer                   4-0-16-4-0 = 24          1.00          0.17 

Liber Nauticus         Azamour/Daylami                     3-0-8-3-0 = 14            1.00          0.21

Secret Gesture        Galileo/Danehill                        4-2-14-4-0 = 24          1.18          0.25

Moth                       Galileo/Seattle Slew                 8-0-16-4-0 = 28          1.33          0.43

Madame Defarge      Motivator/Zafonic                      4-0-6-2-0 = 12            1.40         0.50

Banoffee                  Hurricane Run/Anabaa              3-2-7-2-0 = 14            1.55        0.43

Roz                         Teofilo/Anabaa                         3-3-8-2-0 = 16            1.67        0.44

Snow Queen            Danehill Dancer/Royal Academy10-9-11-4-0 = 34         2.58        0.74

Key to Profile: See footnote to Derby.

Of the 12 who could still line up in Friday’s Investec Oaks, the Dosage system marks out Talent (DI 0.90), Miss You Too (0.93), Say (1.0), Liber Nauticus (1.0), Secret Gesture (1.18) and Moth (1.33) as the best suited to 12 furlongs.

The Ralph Beckett-trained Talent looks a decent prospect at 12 furlongs and 10-length Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Secret Gesture, also trained by Beckett, will be well suited to the trip. The pair should make a bold bid to emulate the yard’s success with Look Here in this race in 2008.

Aidan O’Brien trains Say, Moth and Snow Queen (who finished down the field in Sunday’s Irish 1,000 Guineas and will miss this). The Galileo filly Say won her maiden by nine lengths when stepped up to this trip. Moth, also by Galileo out of a Seattle Slew mare, was beaten a couple of lengths in the 1,000 Guineas, but was finishing to telling effect. She should get 12 furlongs (on a DI of 1.33) and her turn of foot could prove decisive at this level.

Sir Michael Stoute will be bidding to add to his two Oaks successes (Fair Salinia and Unite) with the unbeaten albeit unexposed Liber Nauticus. The Azamour filly, out of a Daylami mare, should improve again for stepping up in trip here.

The John Gosden-trained Manduro filly Gertrude Versed will certainly get the trip but may be just short of the required class. Hughie Morrison’s Banoffee, who has been supplemented for this, got the better of Gertrude Versed in the Cheshire Oaks, quickening from the rear and staying on powerfully. She will also have no problem with the trip and will stay even better than her headline Dosage number suggests due to the as yet unrecognised prepotent stamina influence of Montjeu in her tail-male line.

Michael Bell’s Madame Defarge is interesting, by Derby winner Motivator, but others are more likely to fully relish the 12 furlongs. Bell also has The Lark in this who will certainly stay.

The Galileo fillies Moth and Secret Gesture are the two to concentrate on, with Banoffee, Talent and Say looking the best of the each-way value. MOTH is taken to fly in the face of a strong Beckett team.

Verdict

1)     Moth

2)     Secret Gesture

3)     Banoffee

4)     Talent

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

c S E Miller 2013

Toronado to prove best at middle distances

Toronado to prove best at middle distances

AS A NEW generation of three-year-olds prepares to lock horns over Newmarket’s Rowley Mile, the six-from-six unbeaten dual Group 1 winner Dawn Approach, by New Approach out of a Phone Trick mare, holds strong claims for his handler Jim Bolger, with the right blend of speed and stamina for this race.

Richard Hannon’s unbeaten High Chaparral colt and Group 2 winner Toronado was a fine winner of the Craven Stakes on his reappearance this season from his stablemate Havana Gold, replicating his win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last term, from the front. He moved to second favourite for the Guineas on the back of his Craven performance, but with a Dosage index of 0.89 he looks certain to improve for middle distances.

The prepotent stamina influences evident in the Sadler’s Wells  tail-male line (through High Chaparral) in addition to Shirley Heights through Darshaan in the top half of Toronado’s pedigree (dam side of High Chaparral’s) gives him what he needs in terms of stamina attributes for 10 and 12 furlongs. The influence of Toronado’s dam sire Grand Slam is not prepotent and therefore should be overridden by those contributing stallions, in terms of stamina aptitude, in the top half of Toronado’s pedigree.

The colt is consequently worth backing for the Derby at available odds ahead of an expected good showing in the Guineas (at a trip below his optimum), but we should probably stick with Bolger’s ante-post Guineas favourite for the 2,000 Guineas itself.

                                         Fine middle-distance prospect Toronado should

                                                                     catch the eye at Guineas trip

c S E Miller 2013

Dawn Approach has the right stuff for Guineas

Dawn Approach is well suited to the balance of speed and stamina required for the Rowley Mile and is taken to outpoint likely middle-distance performer Toronado

Dawn Approach has the right stuff for Guineas

AS A NEW generation of three-year-olds prepares to lock horns over Newmarket’s Rowley Mile, the 2,000 Guineas poses the usual conundrums of brimming potential against often scant form. Where the form is inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to identify those with the right blend of speed and stamina for the race.

The table shows 12 of the 14 left in at the confirmation stage (Garswood and Dont Bother Me are excluded as they have insufficient points for an accurate reading). In crude terms those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI). Those with the best chances will have an optimum blend of speed and stamina.

2,000 Guineas contenders

Horse                            Sire/damsire                           profile                         DI        CD          

Toronado                        High Chaparral/Grand Slam        3-1-9-4-1 = 18                      0.89        0.06

Kyllachy Rise                 Kyllachy/Barathea                     3-0-6-3-0 = 12                      1.00        0.25

Mars                              Galileo/Danehill                         5-2-13-4-0 = 24                    1.29        0.33

Cristoforo Colombo          Henrythenavigator/Johannesburg 7-3-12-6-0 = 28                    1.33        0.39

Correspondent                Exceed And Excel/Efisio            3-2-11-2-0 = 18                    1.40        0.33

George Vancouver           Henrythenavigator/Danzig           7-6-23-6-0 = 42                    1.40        0.33

Van Der Neer                  Dutch Art/King Charlemagne      2-1-8-1-0 = 12                      1.40        0.33

Moohaajim                     Cape Cross/Kingmambo             5-4-15-4-0 = 28                    1.43        0.36

Dawn Approach              New Approach/Phone Trick         2-4-8-2-0 = 16                      1.67        0.38

Leitir Mor                       Holy Roman Emperor/Galileo       4-6-14-2-0 = 26                    1.89        0.46 

Lines Of Battle               War Front/Arch                           4-6-17-0-1 = 28                    1.95        0.43 

Glory Awaits                  Choisir/Foxhound                        2-3-7-0-0 = 12                      2.43        0.58

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Worthy favourite

The six-from-six unbeaten dual Group 1 winner Dawn Approach, by New Approach out of a Phone Trick mare, holds strong claims and a favourite’s chance for his handler Jim Bolger. With a DI of 1.67 the colt is well placed in terms of typical previous winners of the race. Leitir Mor will take up pacemaker duties.

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Cristoforo Colombo, one of four possible starters for the yard, has only run at 6 furlongs last term, winning on his debut and finishing runner-up in a Group 2 at the Curragh. Third to Dawn Approach in the Coventry, fell when short of room in the Phoenix Stakes and only fourth to Reckless Abandon and Moohaajim in the Middle Park. The Henrythenavigator colt should be suited by a mile as a three-year-old, but others are preferred here.

The Galileo colt Mars won an 11-runner maiden last term at Dundalk and could develop into a leading performer for Ballydoyle, although he will likely improve for stepping up in trip.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner George Vancouver was placed third in the Dewhurst behind Dawn Approach. The Henrythenavigator colt is suited by a mile and with a DI of 1.4 is likely to get a bit further.

If the UAE Derby winner Lines Of Battle turns out here rather than the Kentucky Derby the War Front colt looks interesting. He has just the sort of DI you would expect to see in this race, but is highly tried, but patchy form at top level.

Hannon pair

Richard Hannon’s unbeaten High Chaparral colt and Group 2 winner Toronado was a fine winner of the Craven Stakes on his reappearance this season from his stablemate Havana Gold, replicating his win in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last term, from the front. He moved to second favourite for the Guineas on the back of his Craven performance, but with a Dosage index of 0.89 he looks certain to improve for middle distances.

The prepotent stamina influences evident in the Sadler’s Wells  tail-male line (through High Chaparral) in addition to Shirley Heights through Darshaan in the top half of Toronado’s pedigree (dam side of High Chaparral’s) gives him what he needs in terms of stamina attributes for 10 and 12 furlongs. The influence of Toronado’s dam sire Grand Slam is not prepotent and therefore should be overridden by those contributing stallions, in terms of stamina aptitude, in the top half of Toronado’s pedigree.

The colt is consequently worth backing for the Derby at available odds ahead of an expected good showing in the Guineas (at a trip below his optimum).

Toronado’s stablemate Van Der Neer runner-up in the Racing Post Trophy last season also takes his chance. The Dutch Art colt should be well suited to a mile.

Listed 5 furlong winner Garswood justified favouritism on his reappearance to land the European Free Handicap for trainer Richard Fahey in good style. The Dutch Art colt, out of a Kyllachy mare, should be effective at around a mile as a three-year-old.

The Brian Meehan-trained Correspondent was well beaten on his reappearance behind Olympic Glory at Newbury. Dont Bother Me won a Leopardstown maiden last season and has finished runner-up in Ireland at Listed level on his two appearances this term for his handler Niall Moran.

The unexposed Kyllachy Rise, a runner-up in a Newbury maiden this season, is an interesting possible contender for Sir Henry Cecil.

Sweet spot

The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 11 2,000 Guineas winners is 1.73 (see table), but those with a slightly higher DI than the average (up to about DI 2) seem the ideal type for the race. Of the past 11 winners those that conform to this measure are: Makfi (DI 2.11), Henrythenavigator (1.92), Cockney Rebel (1.91), George Washington (1.67), Haafhd (2.33) and Rock Of Gibraltar (2.16). Frankel and Camelot were atypical winners on identical DIs of 0.94 (indicating greater stamina potential than is usually associated with this race). It is a mark of the ability of that pair rather than stamina aptitude that enabled them to win the spring classic.

Year     Colt                              DI

2012     Camelot                        0.94

2011     Frankel                         0.94

2010     Makfi                            2.11

2009     Sea The Stars               3.00

2008     Henrythenavigator          1.92

2007     Cockney Rebel              1.91

2006     George Washington       1.67

2005     Footstepsinthesand        1.08*     (from 1.77)

2004     Haafhd                          2.33

2003     Refuse To Bend 1.05

2002     Rock Of Gibraltar           2.16

Average                                   1.73

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

Summary

Of those with a DI of 1.4 or greater George Vancouver, Van Der Neer, Moohaajim, Dawn Approach and Lines Of Battle make our shortlist. We should also not underestimate the chance of Toronado. Despite being likely to show improvement for stepping up in trip, the High Chaparral colt is expected to show up well here and should be backed ahead of Saturday’s race for the Derby. However, Dawn Approach is expected to hold off George Vancouver, Toronado and co for victory.

Prediction:

1)     Dawn Approach

2)     George Vancouver

3)     Toronado

4)     Van Der Neer

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.

c S E Miller 2013